Rankings

Show Tap a team for its schedule and projections. Tap a column to sort.

What the columns mean

#: Power rank: how good the model thinks a team is right now. 1 is best.
Rec: Record so far, including games against FCS teams.
Proj.: Projected final regular-season record, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the schedule.
Power: How many points better than an average FBS team, on a neutral field. The number the ranking is sorted by.
Off / Def: Offense and defense ranks (1 to 138) by expected points added per play, adjusted for the opponents faced. Garbage time excluded.
Sched.: Strength of schedule so far: the average power rating of the opponents a team has played.
Résumé: What the record is worth, as a rank (1 is best): wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against the same schedule. Power says how good a team is; résumé says what it has earned. A big gap between the two usually explains a big gap with the AP poll.
Playoff: Chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, from the same season simulations. A model estimate: the committee's choices are approximated.
AP: Latest AP Top 25 rank, for comparison. NR means unranked.
Vegas: The betting market's ranking: team ratings fit to this season's point spreads, weighted toward recent weeks. For comparison only; it never feeds the model. When the model and Vegas are far apart, Vegas has usually been closer.
QB adj.: In a team's details: points added or taken off its power rating for a confirmed quarterback absence, half the gap between the starter and his replacement (the share that best predicted results in 2024 and 2025). Other injuries are noted but not priced.
*: Next to a projected record: the team has fewer than 12 games on its schedule in our data source, so the projection covers only those.
Deserved wins: In each team's details: how many games it would usually have won, playing the way it has (from postgame win probability). Above or below the real win total means the record has been lucky or unlucky.

		Team	Rec
1	–	· SEC	5-1	10.2-1.8	+26.6	9	3	+9.1	1	99%	6	9
Power: +26.6 · Projected record: 10.2-1.8 · 44% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 99% · Conference title: 49% · Bye: 78% · National title: 25% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Alabama about 10 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 9). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 9, defense No. 3: pass offense No. 23 · rush offense No. 3 · pass defense No. 25 · run defense No. 4 Deserved wins: 5.3 (actual: 5) · Conference: 3-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 6 → Wk 2: 2 → Wk 3: 2 → Wk 4: 3 → Wk 5: 1 → Wk 6: 1 Next: at No. 17 Tennessee (77%) · vs Texas A&M (91%) · at No. 8 LSU (67%) Alabama Crimson Tide: full schedule, stats and players →
2	–	· FBS Independents	6-0	11.2-0.8	+24.8	4	7	0.0	3	99%	2	1
Power: +24.8 · Projected record: 11.2-0.8 · 41% to win out · 100% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 99% · Conference title: n/a · Bye: 80% · National title: 20% Offense No. 4, defense No. 7: pass offense No. 5 · rush offense No. 15 · pass defense No. 23 · run defense No. 7 Deserved wins: 5.9 (actual: 6) · Conference: 0-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 1 → Wk 2: 1 → Wk 3: 1 → Wk 4: 1 → Wk 5: 2 → Wk 6: 2 Next: at No. 14 BYU (71%) · vs Navy (97%) · vs No. 4 Miami (65%) Notre Dame Fighting Irish: full schedule, stats and players →
3	▲1	· SEC	6-0	10.9-1.1	+22.4	5	20	−0.9	2	95%	1	5
Power: +22.4 · Projected record: 10.9-1.1 · 31% to win out · 100% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 95% · Conference title: 39% · Bye: 56% · National title: 13% Offense No. 5, defense No. 20: pass offense No. 8 · rush offense No. 20 · pass defense No. 35 · run defense No. 22 Deserved wins: 5.3 (actual: 6) · Conference: 4-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 5 → Wk 2: 8 → Wk 3: 5 → Wk 4: 2 → Wk 5: 4 → Wk 6: 3 Next: vs Auburn (89%) · vs Florida (83%) · at No. 18 Ole Miss (71%) Georgia Bulldogs: full schedule, stats and players →
4	▲1	· ACC	5-0	10.6-1.4	+21.2	1	37	−6.0	10	90%	3	4
Power: +21.2 · Projected record: 10.6-1.4 · 18% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 90% · Conference title: 73% · Bye: 49% · National title: 11% Offense No. 1, defense No. 37: pass offense No. 1 · rush offense No. 26 · pass defense No. 54 · run defense No. 17 Deserved wins: 4.9 (actual: 5) · Conference: 3-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 3 → Wk 2: 6 → Wk 3: 3 → Wk 4: 6 → Wk 5: 5 → Wk 6: 4 Next: vs Florida State (88%) · vs Pittsburgh (85%) · at North Carolina (80%) Miami Hurricanes: full schedule, stats and players →
5	▼2	· Big Ten	5-1	9.2-2.8	+21.1	19	10	−0.6	21	80%	4	2
Power: +21.1 · Projected record: 9.2-2.8 · 14% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 80% · Conference title: 35% · Bye: 32% · National title: 8% Offense No. 19, defense No. 10: pass offense No. 12 · rush offense No. 63 · pass defense No. 2 · run defense No. 61 Deserved wins: 5.8 (actual: 5) · Conference: 3-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 2 → Wk 2: 5 → Wk 3: 4 → Wk 4: 4 → Wk 5: 3 → Wk 6: 5 Next: at No. 6 Indiana (52%) · at No. 24 USC (70%) · vs No. 16 Oregon (76%) Ohio State Buckeyes: full schedule, stats and players →
6	▲2	· Big Ten	6-0	10.6-1.4	+17.6	12	2	−2.6	4	79%	5	3
Power: +17.6 · Projected record: 10.6-1.4 · 20% to win out · 100% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 79% · Conference title: 30% · Bye: 27% · National title: 4% Offense No. 12, defense No. 2: pass offense No. 2 · rush offense No. 71 · pass defense No. 13 · run defense No. 5 Deserved wins: 5.5 (actual: 6) · Conference: 3-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 8 → Wk 2: 7 → Wk 3: 11 → Wk 4: 10 → Wk 5: 8 → Wk 6: 6 Next: vs No. 5 Ohio State (48%) · at Michigan (73%) · vs Minnesota (92%) Indiana Hoosiers: full schedule, stats and players →
7	▼1	· SEC	4-1	8.7-3.3	+16.9	51	12	+8.8	9	69%	7	7
Power: +16.9 · Projected record: 8.7-3.3 · 7% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 69% · Conference title: 5% · Bye: 18% · National title: 4% Offense No. 51, defense No. 12: pass offense No. 45 · rush offense No. 84 · pass defense No. 27 · run defense No. 13 Deserved wins: 3.2 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 7 → Wk 2: 10 → Wk 3: 7 → Wk 4: 7 → Wk 5: 6 → Wk 6: 7 Next: vs Florida (78%) · vs No. 18 Ole Miss (70%) · vs No. 19 Mississippi State (71%) Texas Longhorns: full schedule, stats and players →
8	▼1	· SEC	4-2	7.8-4.2	+16.8	30	1	+0.6	38	34%	22	10
Power: +16.8 · Projected record: 7.8-4.2 · 6% to win out · 97% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 34% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 3% · National title: 2% Offense No. 30, defense No. 1: pass offense No. 24 · rush offense No. 70 · pass defense No. 3 · run defense No. 8 Deserved wins: 5.1 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 12 → Wk 2: 4 → Wk 3: 6 → Wk 4: 5 → Wk 5: 7 → Wk 6: 8 Next: vs No. 19 Mississippi State (71%) · at Auburn (71%) · vs No. 1 Alabama (33%) LSU Tigers: full schedule, stats and players →
9	–	· Big 12	5-0	10.1-1.9	+15.7	16	36	−6.5	16	51%	11	13
Power: +15.7 · Projected record: 10.1-1.9 · 12% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 51% · Conference title: 28% · Bye: 12% · National title: 2% Offense No. 16, defense No. 36: pass offense No. 22 · rush offense No. 14 · pass defense No. 60 · run defense No. 28 Deserved wins: 4.9 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 16 → Wk 2: 21 → Wk 3: 15 → Wk 4: 8 → Wk 5: 9 → Wk 6: 9 Next: at Colorado (85%) · vs No. 15 Houston (63%) · at Cincinnati (80%) Utah Utes: full schedule, stats and players →
10	▲8	· Big Ten	5-0	10.6-1.4	+15.0	33	6	+0.9	6	65%	12	49
Power: +15.0 · Projected record: 10.6-1.4 · 22% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 65% · Conference title: 22% · Bye: 14% · National title: 2% QB adj.: -0.2 points for Nico Iamaleava out (Ty Dieffenbach expected to start). Vegas disagrees: the model rates UCLA about 12 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 49). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 33, defense No. 6: pass offense No. 96 · rush offense No. 5 · pass defense No. 5 · run defense No. 20 Deserved wins: 4.6 (actual: 5) · Conference: 3-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 26 → Wk 2: 15 → Wk 3: 26 → Wk 4: 19 → Wk 5: 18 → Wk 6: 10 Next: vs Wisconsin (71%) · vs Michigan State (88%) · vs Nevada (95%) UCLA Bruins: full schedule, stats and players →
11	–	· Big 12	5-0	10.3-1.7	+14.7	39	22	−3.6	7	51%	10	8
Power: +14.7 · Projected record: 10.3-1.7 · 16% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 51% · Conference title: 28% · Bye: 11% · National title: 2% Offense No. 39, defense No. 22: pass offense No. 48 · rush offense No. 37 · pass defense No. 26 · run defense No. 25 Deserved wins: 4.2 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 14 → Wk 2: 18 → Wk 3: 21 → Wk 4: 12 → Wk 5: 11 → Wk 6: 11 Next: vs Arizona State (91%) · at Cincinnati (78%) · vs No. 20 Arizona (66%) Texas Tech Red Raiders: full schedule, stats and players →
12	▲1	· SEC	5-1	8.5-3.5	+14.6	47	5	−0.2	17	38%	13	27
Power: +14.6 · Projected record: 8.5-3.5 · 4% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 38% · Conference title: 3% · Bye: 3% · National title: 1% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Missouri about 8 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 27). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 47, defense No. 5: pass offense No. 37 · rush offense No. 68 · pass defense No. 38 · run defense No. 2 Deserved wins: 5.4 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 27 → Wk 2: 14 → Wk 3: 20 → Wk 4: 23 → Wk 5: 13 → Wk 6: 12 Next: at No. 18 Ole Miss (52%) · at Arkansas (84%) · vs No. 7 Texas (51%) Missouri Tigers: full schedule, stats and players →
13	▲3	· Big Ten	5-1	8.9-3.1	+13.3	17	21	−4.2	27	20%	NR	15
Power: +13.3 · Projected record: 8.9-3.1 · 8% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 20% · Conference title: 4% · Bye: 1% · National title: 1% Offense No. 17, defense No. 21: pass offense No. 40 · rush offense No. 4 · pass defense No. 6 · run defense No. 70 Deserved wins: 5.2 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 34 → Wk 2: 46 → Wk 3: 35 → Wk 4: 20 → Wk 5: 16 → Wk 6: 13 Next: at No. 16 Oregon (45%) · vs Washington (86%) · at Illinois (73%) Nebraska Cornhuskers: full schedule, stats and players →
14	–	· Big 12	5-0	9.5-2.5	+13.2	13	4	−2.7	8	39%	8	19
Power: +13.2 · Projected record: 9.5-2.5 · 4% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 39% · Conference title: 22% · Bye: 7% · National title: 1% Offense No. 13, defense No. 4: pass offense No. 34 · rush offense No. 2 · pass defense No. 8 · run defense No. 21 Deserved wins: 4.6 (actual: 5) · Conference: 3-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 19 → Wk 2: 29 → Wk 3: 18 → Wk 4: 14 → Wk 5: 14 → Wk 6: 14 Next: vs No. 2 Notre Dame (29%) · at UCF (66%) · vs Arizona State (89%) BYU Cougars: full schedule, stats and players →
15	▲11	· Big 12	5-1	9.2-2.8	+13.0	6	35	+0.3	12	30%	20	29
Power: +13.0 · Projected record: 9.2-2.8 · 12% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 30% · Conference title: 11% · Bye: 3% · National title: 1% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Houston about 6 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 29). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 6, defense No. 35: pass offense No. 4 · rush offense No. 17 · pass defense No. 53 · run defense No. 30 Deserved wins: 5.3 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 50 → Wk 2: 47 → Wk 3: 34 → Wk 4: 32 → Wk 5: 26 → Wk 6: 15 Next: vs Oklahoma State (75%) · at No. 9 Utah (37%) · vs Cincinnati (84%) Houston Cougars: full schedule, stats and players →
16	▼6	· Big Ten	3-2	7.5-4.5	+12.7	100	9	+3.2	37	13%	NR	6
Power: +12.7 · Projected record: 7.5-4.5 · 4% to win out · 93% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 13% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 100, defense No. 9: pass offense No. 82 · rush offense No. 107 · pass defense No. 11 · run defense No. 18 Deserved wins: 3.1 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 9 → Wk 2: 11 → Wk 3: 14 → Wk 4: 9 → Wk 5: 10 → Wk 6: 16 Next: vs No. 13 Nebraska (55%) · at Illinois (72%) · vs No. 21 Northwestern (62%) Oregon Ducks: full schedule, stats and players →
17	▼5	· SEC	5-1	8.1-3.9	+12.0	63	25	−2.8	24	17%	14	23
Power: +12.0 · Projected record: 8.1-3.9 · 2% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 17% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 1% · National title: 1% Offense No. 63, defense No. 25: pass offense No. 120 · rush offense No. 9 · pass defense No. 9 · run defense No. 82 Deserved wins: 5 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 22 → Wk 2: 13 → Wk 3: 10 → Wk 4: 13 → Wk 5: 12 → Wk 6: 17 Next: vs No. 1 Alabama (23%) · at South Carolina (54%) · vs Kentucky (64%) Tennessee Volunteers: full schedule, stats and players →
18	▲2	· SEC	4-1	7.8-4.2	+11.1	11	97	+1.4	18	14%	9	12
Power: +11.1 · Projected record: 7.8-4.2 · 2% to win out · 97% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 14% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 11, defense No. 97: pass offense No. 16 · rush offense No. 31 · pass defense No. 98 · run defense No. 91 Deserved wins: 2.8 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 15 → Wk 2: 20 → Wk 3: 8 → Wk 4: 18 → Wk 5: 20 → Wk 6: 18 Next: vs No. 12 Missouri (48%) · at No. 7 Texas (30%) · vs Auburn (70%) Ole Miss Rebels: full schedule, stats and players →
19	▲2	· SEC	4-1	8.1-3.9	+10.7	10	54	+5.1	11	15%	16	59
Power: +10.7 · Projected record: 8.1-3.9 · 2% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 15% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 1% · National title: <1% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Mississippi State about 9 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 59). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 10, defense No. 54: pass offense No. 38 · rush offense No. 1 · pass defense No. 66 · run defense No. 39 Deserved wins: 3.3 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 29 → Wk 2: 23 → Wk 3: 16 → Wk 4: 16 → Wk 5: 21 → Wk 6: 19 Next: at No. 8 LSU (29%) · vs Oklahoma (61%) · at No. 7 Texas (29%) Mississippi State Bulldogs: full schedule, stats and players →
20	▲7	· Big 12	5-1	8.7-3.3	+10.6	22	23	−7.1	29	8%	NR	28
Power: +10.6 · Projected record: 8.7-3.3 · 6% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 8% · Conference title: 5% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 22, defense No. 23: pass offense No. 18 · rush offense No. 46 · pass defense No. 32 · run defense No. 29 Deserved wins: 5 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 38 → Wk 2: 49 → Wk 3: 48 → Wk 4: 39 → Wk 5: 27 → Wk 6: 20 Next: vs Iowa State (74%) · at No. 11 Texas Tech (34%) · vs TCU (71%) Arizona Wildcats: full schedule, stats and players →
21	▲2	· Big Ten	4-1	8.3-3.7	+10.5	2	55	−3.6	30	8%	25	35
Power: +10.5 · Projected record: 8.3-3.7 · 3% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 8% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 2, defense No. 55: pass offense No. 9 · rush offense No. 7 · pass defense No. 45 · run defense No. 76 Deserved wins: 4.2 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 69 → Wk 2: 68 → Wk 3: 36 → Wk 4: 38 → Wk 5: 23 → Wk 6: 21 Next: at Michigan State (71%) · vs Rutgers (91%) · at No. 16 Oregon (38%) Northwestern Wildcats: full schedule, stats and players →
22	▲16	· ACC	5-1	9.5-2.5	+10.4	32	27	+0.3	13	16%	21	31
Power: +10.4 · Projected record: 9.5-2.5 · 19% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 16% · Conference title: 14% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 32, defense No. 27: pass offense No. 29 · rush offense No. 52 · pass defense No. 50 · run defense No. 15 Deserved wins: 4.4 (actual: 5) · Conference: 3-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 40 → Wk 2: 40 → Wk 3: 50 → Wk 4: 44 → Wk 5: 38 → Wk 6: 22 Next: at California (75%) · vs Virginia (77%) · vs Merrimack (99%) Wake Forest Demon Deacons: full schedule, stats and players →
23	▼1	· Pac-12	5-1	9.0-2.0*	+10.2	7	77	−2.2	20	39%	23	26
Power: +10.2 · Projected record: 9.0-2.0* · 33% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 39% · Conference title: 53% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 7, defense No. 77: pass offense No. 7 · rush offense No. 11 · pass defense No. 56 · run defense No. 85 Deserved wins: 4.8 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 32 → Wk 2: 24 → Wk 3: 44 → Wk 4: 25 → Wk 5: 22 → Wk 6: 23 Next: at Washington State (85%) · vs Texas State (79%) · at Colorado State (83%) Boise State Broncos: full schedule, stats and players →
24	▼7	· Big Ten	6-1	8.2-3.8	+9.9	14	128	−0.1	15	12%	19	11
Power: +9.9 · Projected record: 8.2-3.8 · 2% to win out · 100% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 12% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 14, defense No. 128: pass offense No. 6 · rush offense No. 75 · pass defense No. 130 · run defense No. 103 Deserved wins: 5.8 (actual: 6) · Conference: 3-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 11 → Wk 2: 17 → Wk 3: 13 → Wk 4: 15 → Wk 5: 17 → Wk 6: 24 Next: at Wisconsin (46%) · vs No. 5 Ohio State (30%) · at No. 6 Indiana (26%) USC Trojans: full schedule, stats and players →
25	–	· Sun Belt	6-0	10.9-1.1	+9.1	29	52	−8.9	14	38%	NR	48
Power: +9.1 · Projected record: 10.9-1.1 · 30% to win out · 100% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 38% · Conference title: 65% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Vegas disagrees: the model rates James Madison about 6 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 48). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 29, defense No. 52: pass offense No. 25 · rush offense No. 39 · pass defense No. 63 · run defense No. 41 Deserved wins: 5.3 (actual: 6) · Conference: 3-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 46 → Wk 2: 80 → Wk 3: 46 → Wk 4: 28 → Wk 5: 25 → Wk 6: 25 Next: vs Georgia State (74%) · at App State (81%) · vs Troy (85%) James Madison Dukes: full schedule, stats and players →
26	▼2	· SEC	3-2	6.4-5.6	+9.0	81	11	+7.2	25	6%	NR	16
Power: +9.0 · Projected record: 6.4-5.6 · 1% to win out · 74% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 6% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 81, defense No. 11: pass offense No. 62 · rush offense No. 113 · pass defense No. 15 · run defense No. 19 Deserved wins: 2.7 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 10 → Wk 2: 12 → Wk 3: 22 → Wk 4: 24 → Wk 5: 24 → Wk 6: 26 Next: vs Kentucky (57%) · at No. 19 Mississippi State (39%) · vs South Carolina (60%) Oklahoma Sooners: full schedule, stats and players →
27	▲9	· SEC	5-1	8.1-3.9	+9.0	37	31	+5.0	5	14%	15	42
Power: +9.0 · Projected record: 8.1-3.9 · 2% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 14% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 37, defense No. 31: pass offense No. 70 · rush offense No. 16 · pass defense No. 43 · run defense No. 40 Deserved wins: 4.5 (actual: 5) · Conference: 3-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 41 → Wk 2: 72 → Wk 3: 37 → Wk 4: 37 → Wk 5: 36 → Wk 6: 27 Next: at Oklahoma (43%) · vs Vanderbilt (82%) · at No. 17 Tennessee (36%) Kentucky Wildcats: full schedule, stats and players →
28	▲4	· Big Ten	4-1	8.3-3.7	+8.7	36	17	−0.8	23	6%	NR	36
Power: +8.7 · Projected record: 8.3-3.7 · 3% to win out · 98% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 6% · Conference title: 4% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 36, defense No. 17: pass offense No. 58 · rush offense No. 28 · pass defense No. 7 · run defense No. 50 Deserved wins: 3.5 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 91 → Wk 2: 76 → Wk 3: 64 → Wk 4: 45 → Wk 5: 32 → Wk 6: 28 Next: at No. 10 UCLA (29%) · vs No. 24 USC (54%) · at Iowa (46%) Wisconsin Badgers: full schedule, stats and players →
29	▲5	· Mountain West	4-1	9.8-2.2	+8.4	74	26	−10.6	44	10%	NR	32
Power: +8.4 · Projected record: 9.8-2.2 · 28% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 10% · Conference title: 56% · Bye: 0% · National title: <1% Offense No. 74, defense No. 26: pass offense No. 99 · rush offense No. 35 · pass defense No. 14 · run defense No. 56 Deserved wins: 4.3 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 44 → Wk 2: 65 → Wk 3: 54 → Wk 4: 40 → Wk 5: 34 → Wk 6: 29 Next: at Hawai'i (90%) · vs North Dakota State (74%) · at San José State (84%) New Mexico Lobos: full schedule, stats and players →
30	–	· Big 12	4-1	7.6-4.4	+8.3	40	30	−5.9	40	4%	NR	43
Power: +8.3 · Projected record: 7.6-4.4 · 1% to win out · 93% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 4% · Conference title: 4% · Bye: <1% · National title: 0% Offense No. 40, defense No. 30: pass offense No. 43 · rush offense No. 61 · pass defense No. 62 · run defense No. 11 Deserved wins: 4.4 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 60 → Wk 2: 53 → Wk 3: 41 → Wk 4: 41 → Wk 5: 30 → Wk 6: 30 Next: vs TCU (66%) · at Kansas (61%) · at UCF (54%) Baylor Bears: full schedule, stats and players →
31	▼16	· SEC	3-3	5.7-6.3	+8.1	95	79	+3.3	61	<1%	NR	21
Power: +8.1 · Projected record: 5.7-6.3 · 1% to win out · 56% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 95, defense No. 79: pass offense No. 105 · rush offense No. 90 · pass defense No. 115 · run defense No. 31 Deserved wins: 3.1 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 4 → Wk 2: 3 → Wk 3: 9 → Wk 4: 17 → Wk 5: 15 → Wk 6: 31 Next: vs The Citadel (99%) · at No. 1 Alabama (9%) · at South Carolina (44%) Texas A&M Aggies: full schedule, stats and players →
32	▲8	· ACC	3-3	6.7-5.3	+7.9	20	70	+0.3	75	2%	NR	22
Power: +7.9 · Projected record: 6.7-5.3 · 7% to win out · 84% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 2% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 20, defense No. 70: pass offense No. 39 · rush offense No. 6 · pass defense No. 94 · run defense No. 51 Deserved wins: 3.6 (actual: 3) · Conference: 2-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 33 → Wk 2: 33 → Wk 3: 17 → Wk 4: 33 → Wk 5: 40 → Wk 6: 32 Next: at Syracuse (66%) · vs Stanford (89%) · at Georgia Tech (70%) Louisville Cardinals: full schedule, stats and players →
33	▲16	· SEC	3-3	5.9-6.1	+7.7	42	81	+2.9	54	1%	NR	44
Power: +7.7 · Projected record: 5.9-6.1 · 2% to win out · 63% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 1% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 42, defense No. 81: pass offense No. 67 · rush offense No. 29 · pass defense No. 125 · run defense No. 12 Deserved wins: 3.1 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 24 → Wk 2: 61 → Wk 3: 51 → Wk 4: 54 → Wk 5: 49 → Wk 6: 33 Next: vs No. 17 Tennessee (46%) · at Oklahoma (40%) · vs Texas A&M (56%) South Carolina Gamecocks: full schedule, stats and players →
34	▲24	· Pac-12	4-2	7.5-3.5*	+7.6	18	32	−4.7	48	7%	NR	56
Power: +7.6 · Projected record: 7.5-3.5* · 14% to win out · 97% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 7% · Conference title: 37% · Bye: 0% · National title: <1% Offense No. 18, defense No. 32: pass offense No. 19 · rush offense No. 49 · pass defense No. 46 · run defense No. 36 Deserved wins: 3.7 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 105 → Wk 2: 109 → Wk 3: 96 → Wk 4: 74 → Wk 5: 58 → Wk 6: 34 Next: vs Washington State (88%) · at Fresno State (58%) · vs Texas State (74%) Oregon State Beavers: full schedule, stats and players →
35	▲4	· Big Ten	5-1	8.3-3.7	+7.5	34	53	−2.6	19	4%	17	25
Power: +7.5 · Projected record: 8.3-3.7 · 3% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 4% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: <1% · National title: <1% Offense No. 34, defense No. 53: pass offense No. 31 · rush offense No. 56 · pass defense No. 111 · run defense No. 6 Deserved wins: 3.5 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 17 → Wk 2: 39 → Wk 3: 32 → Wk 4: 30 → Wk 5: 39 → Wk 6: 35 Next: at Minnesota (68%) · vs Wisconsin (54%) · at No. 21 Northwestern (36%) Iowa Hawkeyes: full schedule, stats and players →
36	▼8	· ACC	5-1	8.5-3.5	+7.3	70	19	−3.1	26	4%	NR	53
Power: +7.3 · Projected record: 8.5-3.5 · 2% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 4% · Conference title: 3% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 70, defense No. 19: pass offense No. 66 · rush offense No. 88 · pass defense No. 30 · run defense No. 26 Deserved wins: 4.8 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 28 → Wk 2: 28 → Wk 3: 24 → Wk 4: 21 → Wk 5: 28 → Wk 6: 36 Next: at Boston College (80%) · at No. 4 Miami (15%) · vs Georgia Tech (79%) Pittsburgh Panthers: full schedule, stats and players →
37	▼18	· SEC	4-2	6.6-5.4	+7.3	23	82	+2.1	32	2%	NR	20
Power: +7.3 · Projected record: 6.6-5.4 · 1% to win out · 81% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 2% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 23, defense No. 82: pass offense No. 26 · rush offense No. 32 · pass defense No. 84 · run defense No. 79 Deserved wins: 4.1 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 23 → Wk 2: 25 → Wk 3: 19 → Wk 4: 11 → Wk 5: 19 → Wk 6: 37 Next: at No. 7 Texas (22%) · vs No. 3 Georgia (17%) · vs Oklahoma (52%) Florida Gators: full schedule, stats and players →
38	▼9	· Big Ten	3-3	7.0-5.0	+6.2	93	29	−0.3	81	0%	NR	14
Power: +6.2 · Projected record: 7.0-5.0 · 10% to win out · 88% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 93, defense No. 29: pass offense No. 51 · rush offense No. 119 · pass defense No. 10 · run defense No. 109 Deserved wins: 3.7 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 18 → Wk 2: 19 → Wk 3: 12 → Wk 4: 22 → Wk 5: 29 → Wk 6: 38 Next: at Michigan (46%) · vs Purdue (63%) · at Washington (61%) Penn State Nittany Lions: full schedule, stats and players →
39	▼6	· ACC	4-1	7.8-4.2	+6.1	83	60	−8.0	42	2%	NR	61
Power: +6.1 · Projected record: 7.8-4.2 · 1% to win out · 96% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 2% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 83, defense No. 60: pass offense No. 80 · rush offense No. 66 · pass defense No. 91 · run defense No. 24 Deserved wins: 4.5 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 52 → Wk 2: 45 → Wk 3: 28 → Wk 4: 31 → Wk 5: 33 → Wk 6: 39 Next: vs North Carolina (59%) · at Virginia (55%) · vs Boston College (86%) Duke Blue Devils: full schedule, stats and players →
40	▲4	· American Athletic	5-1	9.2-2.8	+5.7	24	72	−9.1	33	5%	NR	40
Power: +5.7 · Projected record: 9.2-2.8 · 14% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 5% · Conference title: 36% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 24, defense No. 72: pass offense No. 17 · rush offense No. 38 · pass defense No. 39 · run defense No. 113 Deserved wins: 4.9 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 20 → Wk 2: 38 → Wk 3: 60 → Wk 4: 58 → Wk 5: 44 → Wk 6: 40 Next: at Tulane (68%) · vs East Carolina (71%) · vs Army (77%) Memphis Tigers: full schedule, stats and players →
41	▼4	· Big Ten	3-2	6.0-6.0	+5.3	99	24	−0.6	55	<1%	NR	17
Power: +5.3 · Projected record: 6.0-6.0 · <1% to win out · 64% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 99, defense No. 24: pass offense No. 109 · rush offense No. 86 · pass defense No. 21 · run defense No. 45 Deserved wins: 3.3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 31 → Wk 2: 22 → Wk 3: 25 → Wk 4: 26 → Wk 5: 37 → Wk 6: 41 Next: vs Penn State (54%) · vs No. 6 Indiana (27%) · at Rutgers (76%) Michigan Wolverines: full schedule, stats and players →
42	▼7	· SEC	3-2	5.8-6.2	+5.2	86	46	+2.3	46	<1%	NR	37
Power: +5.2 · Projected record: 5.8-6.2 · <1% to win out · 58% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 86, defense No. 46: pass offense No. 106 · rush offense No. 44 · pass defense No. 68 · run defense No. 38 Deserved wins: 2 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 35 → Wk 2: 26 → Wk 3: 30 → Wk 4: 29 → Wk 5: 35 → Wk 6: 42 Next: at No. 3 Georgia (11%) · vs No. 8 LSU (29%) · at No. 18 Ole Miss (30%) Auburn Tigers: full schedule, stats and players →
43	▲16	· ACC	3-2	6.7-5.3	+5.1	27	33	+3.1	35	1%	NR	71
Power: +5.1 · Projected record: 6.7-5.3 · 1% to win out · 80% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 1% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 27, defense No. 33: pass offense No. 36 · rush offense No. 51 · pass defense No. 19 · run defense No. 81 Deserved wins: 2.2 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 68 → Wk 2: 43 → Wk 3: 59 → Wk 4: 61 → Wk 5: 59 → Wk 6: 43 Next: at Duke (41%) · vs Syracuse (71%) · vs No. 4 Miami (20%) North Carolina Tar Heels: full schedule, stats and players →
44	▼13	· ACC	3-3	6.1-5.9	+5.0	31	120	+0.8	68	<1%	NR	58
Power: +5.0 · Projected record: 6.1-5.9 · 2% to win out · 70% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 31, defense No. 120: pass offense No. 72 · rush offense No. 8 · pass defense No. 127 · run defense No. 102 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 65 → Wk 2: 48 → Wk 3: 39 → Wk 4: 50 → Wk 5: 31 → Wk 6: 44 Next: at No. 4 Miami (12%) · vs Clemson (61%) · at Boston College (76%) Florida State Seminoles: full schedule, stats and players →
45	▲12	· Big 12	4-1	7.6-4.4	+4.9	52	43	−2.9	28	2%	18	60
Power: +4.9 · Projected record: 7.6-4.4 · 1% to win out · 94% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 2% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 52, defense No. 43: pass offense No. 33 · rush offense No. 89 · pass defense No. 65 · run defense No. 32 Deserved wins: 3.4 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 107 → Wk 2: 84 → Wk 3: 72 → Wk 4: 57 → Wk 5: 57 → Wk 6: 45 Next: at No. 15 Houston (25%) · vs Colorado (75%) · at Iowa State (48%) Oklahoma State Cowboys: full schedule, stats and players →
46	▼3	· Big 12	2-3	5.1-6.9	+4.2	90	8	−2.0	92	0%	NR	50
Power: +4.2 · Projected record: 5.1-6.9 · <1% to win out · 38% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 90, defense No. 8: pass offense No. 50 · rush offense No. 129 · pass defense No. 24 · run defense No. 9 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 56 → Wk 2: 32 → Wk 3: 40 → Wk 4: 43 → Wk 5: 43 → Wk 6: 46 Next: at Baylor (34%) · vs West Virginia (73%) · vs Kansas (64%) TCU Horned Frogs: full schedule, stats and players →
47	▲1	· Big 12	3-3	6.2-5.8	+3.9	61	18	+1.2	63	<1%	NR	79
Power: +3.9 · Projected record: 6.2-5.8 · 3% to win out · 70% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates UCF about 6 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 79). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 61, defense No. 18: pass offense No. 47 · rush offense No. 94 · pass defense No. 31 · run defense No. 16 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 75 → Wk 2: 56 → Wk 3: 52 → Wk 4: 52 → Wk 5: 48 → Wk 6: 47 Next: vs No. 14 BYU (34%) · vs Baylor (46%) · at Kansas (50%) UCF Knights: full schedule, stats and players →
48	▲25	· Big Ten	3-3	5.7-6.3	+3.6	21	103	+4.1	52	<1%	NR	72
Power: +3.6 · Projected record: 5.7-6.3 · 1% to win out · 55% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 21, defense No. 103: pass offense No. 11 · rush offense No. 65 · pass defense No. 99 · run defense No. 104 Deserved wins: 3.6 (actual: 3) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 84 → Wk 2: 87 → Wk 3: 85 → Wk 4: 86 → Wk 5: 73 → Wk 6: 48 Next: vs Washington (68%) · at Penn State (37%) · vs Maryland (70%) Purdue Boilermakers: full schedule, stats and players →
49	▲20	· Conference USA	5-1	9.7-2.3	+3.6	44	42	−10.0	39	2%	NR	57
Power: +3.6 · Projected record: 9.7-2.3 · 26% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 2% · Conference title: 61% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 44, defense No. 42: pass offense No. 63 · rush offense No. 30 · pass defense No. 37 · run defense No. 59 Deserved wins: 4.8 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 79 → Wk 2: 125 → Wk 3: 99 → Wk 4: 83 → Wk 5: 69 → Wk 6: 49 Next: at Kennesaw State (71%) · vs Florida International (71%) · at New Mexico State (76%) Liberty Flames: full schedule, stats and players →
50	▼9	· ACC	4-1	7.7-4.3	+3.5	60	69	−6.5	34	3%	24	18
Power: +3.5 · Projected record: 7.7-4.3 · 1% to win out · 95% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 3% · Conference title: 3% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates SMU about 7 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 18). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 60, defense No. 69: pass offense No. 32 · rush offense No. 106 · pass defense No. 72 · run defense No. 55 Deserved wins: 3.7 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 13 → Wk 2: 16 → Wk 3: 23 → Wk 4: 34 → Wk 5: 41 → Wk 6: 50 Next: vs Virginia (62%) · vs California (71%) · at Syracuse (55%) SMU Mustangs: full schedule, stats and players →
51	▼1	· American Athletic	4-2	8.1-3.9	+3.4	3	90	−5.4	50	1%	NR	66
Power: +3.4 · Projected record: 8.1-3.9 · 11% to win out · 98% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 1% · Conference title: 27% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 3, defense No. 90: pass offense No. 3 · rush offense No. 13 · pass defense No. 124 · run defense No. 44 Deserved wins: 3.4 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 66 → Wk 2: 31 → Wk 3: 61 → Wk 4: 53 → Wk 5: 50 → Wk 6: 51 Next: at Navy (64%) · vs Florida Atlantic (69%) · vs Rice (80%) North Texas Mean Green: full schedule, stats and players →
52	▼5	· ACC	3-2	7.0-5.0	+3.4	104	16	+7.5	31	1%	NR	47
Power: +3.4 · Projected record: 7.0-5.0 · 2% to win out · 87% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 1% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 104, defense No. 16: pass offense No. 101 · rush offense No. 105 · pass defense No. 1 · run defense No. 111 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 3) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 59 → Wk 2: 27 → Wk 3: 49 → Wk 4: 36 → Wk 5: 47 → Wk 6: 52 Next: vs Charleston Southern (97%) · vs Virginia Tech (57%) · at Florida State (40%) Clemson Tigers: full schedule, stats and players →
53	▲2	· ACC	4-2	7.1-4.9	+3.2	8	102	−6.7	62	<1%	NR	34
Power: +3.2 · Projected record: 7.1-4.9 · 1% to win out · 91% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 8, defense No. 102: pass offense No. 13 · rush offense No. 48 · pass defense No. 104 · run defense No. 78 Deserved wins: 4.3 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 51 → Wk 2: 63 → Wk 3: 38 → Wk 4: 49 → Wk 5: 55 → Wk 6: 53 Next: vs Georgia Tech (71%) · at Clemson (43%) · at SMU (43%) Virginia Tech Hokies: full schedule, stats and players →
54	–	· Big 12	3-3	5.8-6.2	+3.1	75	67	−0.4	72	<1%	NR	69
Power: +3.1 · Projected record: 5.8-6.2 · 1% to win out · 57% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 75, defense No. 67: pass offense No. 86 · rush offense No. 57 · pass defense No. 59 · run defense No. 86 Deserved wins: 3.2 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 58 → Wk 2: 42 → Wk 3: 42 → Wk 4: 48 → Wk 5: 54 → Wk 6: 54 Next: at No. 20 Arizona (26%) · vs Oklahoma State (52%) · at Baylor (31%) Iowa State Cyclones: full schedule, stats and players →
55	▲6	· American Athletic	5-1	8.9-3.1	+2.2	50	34	−3.5	22	3%	NR	46
Power: +2.2 · Projected record: 8.9-3.1 · 9% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 3% · Conference title: 20% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 50, defense No. 34: pass offense No. 76 · rush offense No. 21 · pass defense No. 51 · run defense No. 37 Deserved wins: 4.2 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 64 → Wk 2: 50 → Wk 3: 56 → Wk 4: 56 → Wk 5: 61 → Wk 6: 55 Next: vs Navy (73%) · at Tulane (60%) · at Florida Atlantic (54%) UTSA Roadrunners: full schedule, stats and players →
56	▼14	· Big 12	3-2	6.4-5.6	+2.2	38	105	−4.9	66	<1%	NR	38
Power: +2.2 · Projected record: 6.4-5.6 · 1% to win out · 73% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 38, defense No. 105: pass offense No. 55 · rush offense No. 24 · pass defense No. 106 · run defense No. 99 Deserved wins: 3.1 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 42 → Wk 2: 41 → Wk 3: 29 → Wk 4: 35 → Wk 5: 42 → Wk 6: 56 Next: vs Kansas (59%) · at Arizona State (59%) · at Colorado (57%) Kansas State Wildcats: full schedule, stats and players →
57	▲3	· Pac-12	4-2	7.1-3.9*	+1.9	58	45	−5.1	53	1%	NR	75
Power: +1.9 · Projected record: 7.1-3.9* · 9% to win out · 92% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 1% · Conference title: 7% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 58, defense No. 45: pass offense No. 15 · rush offense No. 131 · pass defense No. 33 · run defense No. 84 Deserved wins: 4.1 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 100 → Wk 2: 96 → Wk 3: 76 → Wk 4: 76 → Wk 5: 60 → Wk 6: 57 Next: at San Diego State (65%) · vs Oregon State (42%) · at Utah State (70%) Fresno State Bulldogs: full schedule, stats and players →
58	▲12	· Sun Belt	4-1	8.5-3.5	+1.5	25	71	−11.6	45	1%	NR	102
Power: +1.5 · Projected record: 8.5-3.5 · 5% to win out · 98% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 1% · Conference title: 14% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Georgia State about 8 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 102). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 25, defense No. 71: pass offense No. 10 · rush offense No. 78 · pass defense No. 34 · run defense No. 127 Deserved wins: 4 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 103 → Wk 2: 70 → Wk 3: 89 → Wk 4: 91 → Wk 5: 70 → Wk 6: 58 Next: at No. 25 James Madison (26%) · at Arkansas State (66%) · vs Coastal Carolina (79%) Georgia State Panthers: full schedule, stats and players →
59	▼14	· ACC	4-2	6.6-5.4	+1.4	82	63	−6.3	65	1%	NR	33
Power: +1.4 · Projected record: 6.6-5.4 · 1% to win out · 79% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 1% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 82, defense No. 63: pass offense No. 90 · rush offense No. 64 · pass defense No. 61 · run defense No. 71 Deserved wins: 4 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 21 → Wk 2: 9 → Wk 3: 27 → Wk 4: 27 → Wk 5: 45 → Wk 6: 59 Next: at SMU (38%) · vs Duke (45%) · at No. 22 Wake Forest (23%) Virginia Cavaliers: full schedule, stats and players →
60	▼9	· American Athletic	4-2	7.9-4.1	+1.4	68	85	−7.7	67	<1%	NR	45
Power: +1.4 · Projected record: 7.9-4.1 · 8% to win out · 97% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 68, defense No. 85: pass offense No. 102 · rush offense No. 33 · pass defense No. 100 · run defense No. 35 Deserved wins: 3.4 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 36 → Wk 2: 35 → Wk 3: 31 → Wk 4: 46 → Wk 5: 51 → Wk 6: 60 Next: vs Kent State (85%) · vs UAB (83%) · at East Carolina (48%) South Florida Bulls: full schedule, stats and players →
61	▼5	· Big 12	2-3	4.8-7.2	+1.2	66	59	−1.7	89	0%	NR	51
Power: +1.2 · Projected record: 4.8-7.2 · 1% to win out · 31% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 66, defense No. 59: pass offense No. 87 · rush offense No. 40 · pass defense No. 82 · run defense No. 46 Deserved wins: 2.8 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 48 → Wk 2: 71 → Wk 3: 66 → Wk 4: 66 → Wk 5: 56 → Wk 6: 61 Next: at Kansas State (41%) · vs Baylor (39%) · at TCU (36%) Kansas Jayhawks: full schedule, stats and players →
62	–	· Big Ten	3-3	4.8-7.2	+0.8	28	137	−0.9	78	0%	NR	24
Power: +0.8 · Projected record: 4.8-7.2 · <1% to win out · 28% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Illinois about 7 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 24). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 28, defense No. 137: pass offense No. 27 · rush offense No. 55 · pass defense No. 137 · run defense No. 119 Deserved wins: 2.1 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 39 → Wk 2: 78 → Wk 3: 58 → Wk 4: 59 → Wk 5: 62 → Wk 6: 62 Next: vs No. 16 Oregon (28%) · at Maryland (51%) · vs No. 13 Nebraska (27%) Illinois Fighting Illini: full schedule, stats and players →
63	▲32	· Mountain West	5-1	9.4-2.6	+0.8	97	15	−11.8	43	<1%	NR	30
Power: +0.8 · Projected record: 9.4-2.6 · 11% to win out · >99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 19% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 97, defense No. 15: pass offense No. 54 · rush offense No. 109 · pass defense No. 20 · run defense No. 10 Deserved wins: 4.3 (actual: 5) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 128 → Wk 2: 121 → Wk 3: 110 → Wk 4: 111 → Wk 5: 95 → Wk 6: 63 Next: vs Nevada (78%) · at New Mexico (26%) · vs UTEP (90%) North Dakota State Bison: full schedule, stats and players →
64	▲4	· Mountain West	4-2	8.0-4.0	+0.3	107	40	−4.3	56	<1%	NR	64
Power: +0.3 · Projected record: 8.0-4.0 · 7% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 19% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 107, defense No. 40: pass offense No. 98 · rush offense No. 96 · pass defense No. 29 · run defense No. 73 Deserved wins: 3.7 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 54 → Wk 2: 74 → Wk 3: 93 → Wk 4: 72 → Wk 5: 68 → Wk 6: 64 Next: at Air Force (52%) · vs Northern Illinois (93%) · vs Wyoming (86%) UNLV Rebels: full schedule, stats and players →
65	▲21	· Mid-American	4-2	8.3-3.7	−0.1	71	62	−6.5	57	0%	NR	63
Power: −0.1 · Projected record: 8.3-3.7 · 15% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 40% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 71, defense No. 62: pass offense No. 74 · rush offense No. 74 · pass defense No. 76 · run defense No. 49 Deserved wins: 3.8 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 62 → Wk 2: 51 → Wk 3: 69 → Wk 4: 84 → Wk 5: 86 → Wk 6: 65 Next: at Central Michigan (68%) · at Toledo (48%) · vs Bowling Green (82%) Western Michigan Broncos: full schedule, stats and players →
66	▼3	· Pac-12	2-3	5.5-5.5*	−0.2	15	80	−1.7	90	0%	NR	52
Power: −0.2 · Projected record: 5.5-5.5* · 2% to win out · 50% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 3% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 15, defense No. 80: pass offense No. 14 · rush offense No. 22 · pass defense No. 93 · run defense No. 42 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 80 → Wk 2: 94 → Wk 3: 77 → Wk 4: 62 → Wk 5: 63 → Wk 6: 66 Next: vs Utah State (77%) · at No. 23 Boise State (21%) · at Oregon State (26%) Texas State Bobcats: full schedule, stats and players →
67	–	· American Athletic	3-2	6.5-5.5	−0.4	64	51	−4.4	59	0%	NR	76
Power: −0.4 · Projected record: 6.5-5.5 · 4% to win out · 79% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 5% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 64, defense No. 51: pass offense No. 59 · rush offense No. 73 · pass defense No. 47 · run defense No. 68 Deserved wins: 2.3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 73 → Wk 2: 64 → Wk 3: 67 → Wk 4: 67 → Wk 5: 67 → Wk 6: 67 Next: at Memphis (29%) · vs Temple (70%) · vs South Florida (52%) East Carolina Pirates: full schedule, stats and players →
68	▼2	· Big 12	4-1	6.2-5.8	−0.4	35	99	−5.1	36	<1%	NR	62
Power: −0.4 · Projected record: 6.2-5.8 · <1% to win out · 70% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 35, defense No. 99: pass offense No. 42 · rush offense No. 34 · pass defense No. 67 · run defense No. 125 Deserved wins: 3.5 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 55 → Wk 2: 52 → Wk 3: 53 → Wk 4: 47 → Wk 5: 66 → Wk 6: 68 Next: at West Virginia (49%) · vs No. 11 Texas Tech (22%) · vs No. 9 Utah (20%) Cincinnati Bearcats: full schedule, stats and players →
69	▲5	· FBS Independents	3-3	6.5-5.5	−0.5	54	84	−8.7	110	0%	NR	109
Power: −0.5 · Projected record: 6.5-5.5 · 4% to win out · 78% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: n/a · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates UConn about 7 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 109). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 54, defense No. 84: pass offense No. 53 · rush offense No. 36 · pass defense No. 96 · run defense No. 48 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 63 → Wk 2: 101 → Wk 3: 63 → Wk 4: 65 → Wk 5: 74 → Wk 6: 69 Next: vs Massachusetts (69%) · at Air Force (50%) · vs North Carolina (43%) UConn Huskies: full schedule, stats and players →
70	▲2	· Big Ten	2-4	4.1-7.9	−0.9	116	61	+5.9	91	0%	NR	80
Power: −0.9 · Projected record: 4.1-7.9 · <1% to win out · 13% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 116, defense No. 61: pass offense No. 115 · rush offense No. 102 · pass defense No. 87 · run defense No. 47 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 82 → Wk 2: 75 → Wk 3: 57 → Wk 4: 64 → Wk 5: 72 → Wk 6: 70 Next: vs No. 21 Northwestern (29%) · at No. 10 UCLA (12%) · at Michigan (29%) Michigan State Spartans: full schedule, stats and players →
71	▼25	· Big Ten	3-3	4.6-7.4	−1.0	87	65	−4.5	97	0%	NR	39
Power: −1.0 · Projected record: 4.6-7.4 · <1% to win out · 21% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 87, defense No. 65: pass offense No. 83 · rush offense No. 101 · pass defense No. 74 · run defense No. 60 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 25 → Wk 2: 58 → Wk 3: 43 → Wk 4: 51 → Wk 5: 46 → Wk 6: 71 Next: at Purdue (33%) · at No. 13 Nebraska (14%) · vs Penn State (39%) Washington Huskies: full schedule, stats and players →
72	▲6	· ACC	2-3	4.7-7.3	−1.3	69	49	−3.7	94	0%	NR	101
Power: −1.3 · Projected record: 4.7-7.3 · <1% to win out · 28% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 69, defense No. 49: pass offense No. 57 · rush offense No. 79 · pass defense No. 4 · run defense No. 128 Deserved wins: 2.5 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 72 → Wk 2: 82 → Wk 3: 78 → Wk 4: 82 → Wk 5: 78 → Wk 6: 72 Next: vs Louisville (34%) · at North Carolina (29%) · vs SMU (45%) Syracuse Orange: full schedule, stats and players →
73	▲3	· Sun Belt	4-2	7.9-4.1	−2.0	80	28	−9.8	69	0%	NR	92
Power: −2.0 · Projected record: 7.9-4.1 · 8% to win out · 97% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 4% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 80, defense No. 28: pass offense No. 78 · rush offense No. 76 · pass defense No. 70 · run defense No. 3 Deserved wins: 3.8 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 99 → Wk 2: 89 → Wk 3: 95 → Wk 4: 73 → Wk 5: 76 → Wk 6: 73 Next: vs Troy (63%) · at Southern Miss (71%) · vs South Alabama (64%) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: full schedule, stats and players →
74	▲11	· American Athletic	4-1	7.3-4.7	−2.0	78	122	−9.0	41	<1%	NR	81
Power: −2.0 · Projected record: 7.3-4.7 · 1% to win out · 90% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 4% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 78, defense No. 122: pass offense No. 77 · rush offense No. 67 · pass defense No. 108 · run defense No. 120 Deserved wins: 3.8 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 122 → Wk 2: 114 → Wk 3: 102 → Wk 4: 93 → Wk 5: 85 → Wk 6: 74 Next: at Army (47%) · vs Rice (69%) · at North Texas (31%) Florida Atlantic Owls: full schedule, stats and players →
75	▼22	· Mid-American	4-2	8.0-4.0	−2.1	77	92	−10.6	82	0%	NR	55
Power: −2.1 · Projected record: 8.0-4.0 · 9% to win out · 98% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 14% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 77, defense No. 92: pass offense No. 64 · rush offense No. 87 · pass defense No. 107 · run defense No. 52 Deserved wins: 3.9 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 43 → Wk 2: 59 → Wk 3: 68 → Wk 4: 55 → Wk 5: 53 → Wk 6: 75 Next: at Eastern Michigan (63%) · vs Western Michigan (52%) · at Sacramento State (89%) Toledo Rockets: full schedule, stats and players →
76	▲5	· Big Ten	2-4	4.4-7.6	−2.1	84	39	+4.7	85	0%	NR	77
Power: −2.1 · Projected record: 4.4-7.6 · <1% to win out · 17% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 84, defense No. 39: pass offense No. 79 · rush offense No. 93 · pass defense No. 36 · run defense No. 80 Deserved wins: 2.1 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 70 → Wk 2: 37 → Wk 3: 47 → Wk 4: 69 → Wk 5: 81 → Wk 6: 76 Next: vs Rutgers (72%) · vs Illinois (49%) · at Purdue (30%) Maryland Terrapins: full schedule, stats and players →
77	▼12	· Big Ten	4-2	5.3-6.7	−2.4	115	50	−3.9	51	0%	NR	65
Power: −2.4 · Projected record: 5.3-6.7 · 0% to win out · 38% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 115, defense No. 50: pass offense No. 91 · rush offense No. 137 · pass defense No. 42 · run defense No. 88 Deserved wins: 3.9 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 61 → Wk 2: 115 → Wk 3: 81 → Wk 4: 68 → Wk 5: 65 → Wk 6: 77 Next: vs Iowa (33%) · at No. 6 Indiana (8%) · vs No. 10 UCLA (18%) Minnesota Golden Gophers: full schedule, stats and players →
78	▲14	· Sun Belt	2-4	5.9-6.1	−2.6	46	86	−2.0	116	0%	NR	93
Power: −2.6 · Projected record: 5.9-6.1 · 6% to win out · 64% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 3% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 46, defense No. 86: pass offense No. 28 · rush offense No. 92 · pass defense No. 95 · run defense No. 65 Deserved wins: 2.7 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 92 → Wk 2: 55 → Wk 3: 94 → Wk 4: 96 → Wk 5: 92 → Wk 6: 78 Next: vs App State (69%) · vs Marshall (81%) · at Georgia State (34%) Georgia Southern Eagles: full schedule, stats and players →
79	▲10	· ACC	3-3	5.4-6.6	−2.8	89	96	−0.6	79	<1%	NR	100
Power: −2.8 · Projected record: 5.4-6.6 · 1% to win out · 44% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 89, defense No. 96: pass offense No. 56 · rush offense No. 122 · pass defense No. 52 · run defense No. 134 Deserved wins: 2.2 (actual: 3) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 119 → Wk 2: 69 → Wk 3: 73 → Wk 4: 85 → Wk 5: 89 → Wk 6: 79 Next: vs No. 22 Wake Forest (26%) · at SMU (29%) · at NC State (46%) California Golden Bears: full schedule, stats and players →
80	▲13	· Conference USA	3-2	6.7-5.3	−2.8	138	47	−9.2	80	0%	NR	88
Power: −2.8 · Projected record: 6.7-5.3 · 6% to win out · 85% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 11% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 138, defense No. 47: pass offense No. 124 · rush offense No. 136 · pass defense No. 55 · run defense No. 43 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 74 → Wk 2: 77 → Wk 3: 90 → Wk 4: 98 → Wk 5: 93 → Wk 6: 80 Next: vs Middle Tennessee (75%) · at Liberty (29%) · vs Missouri State (78%) Florida International Panthers: full schedule, stats and players →
81	▼10	· Big 12	3-3	4.6-7.4	−2.8	48	127	−2.1	88	0%	NR	68
Power: −2.8 · Projected record: 4.6-7.4 · 0% to win out · 21% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 48, defense No. 127: pass offense No. 95 · rush offense No. 18 · pass defense No. 136 · run defense No. 92 Deserved wins: 3.4 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 89 → Wk 2: 66 → Wk 3: 45 → Wk 4: 70 → Wk 5: 71 → Wk 6: 81 Next: vs Cincinnati (51%) · at TCU (27%) · at No. 11 Texas Tech (10%) West Virginia Mountaineers: full schedule, stats and players →
82	▼30	· SEC	3-3	4.4-7.6	−2.9	88	64	0.0	71	0%	NR	73
Power: −2.9 · Projected record: 4.4-7.6 · 0% to win out · 14% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 88, defense No. 64: pass offense No. 104 · rush offense No. 53 · pass defense No. 58 · run defense No. 94 Deserved wins: 3.3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 37 → Wk 2: 34 → Wk 3: 33 → Wk 4: 42 → Wk 5: 52 → Wk 6: 82 Next: vs Arkansas (59%) · at Kentucky (18%) · at No. 19 Mississippi State (16%) Vanderbilt Commodores: full schedule, stats and players →
83	▲28	· Mountain West	4-1	7.9-4.1	−3.1	59	73	−11.4	49	<1%	NR	70
Power: −3.1 · Projected record: 7.9-4.1 · 2% to win out · 97% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: 5% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 59, defense No. 73: pass offense No. 123 · rush offense No. 12 · pass defense No. 83 · run defense No. 54 Deserved wins: 4.1 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 114 → Wk 2: 124 → Wk 3: 118 → Wk 4: 114 → Wk 5: 111 → Wk 6: 83 Next: vs UNLV (48%) · at Wyoming (71%) · vs UConn (50%) Air Force Falcons: full schedule, stats and players →
84	▼9	· ACC	2-3	4.1-7.9	−3.1	57	129	−3.6	104	<1%	NR	83
Power: −3.1 · Projected record: 4.1-7.9 · 0% to win out · 12% to reach 6 wins Playoff: <1% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 57, defense No. 129: pass offense No. 65 · rush offense No. 50 · pass defense No. 133 · run defense No. 106 Deserved wins: 2 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 67 → Wk 2: 81 → Wk 3: 70 → Wk 4: 79 → Wk 5: 75 → Wk 6: 84 Next: at Virginia Tech (29%) · vs Boston College (70%) · at Pittsburgh (21%) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: full schedule, stats and players →
85	▼6	· Big 12	2-3	4.2-7.8	−3.3	113	13	+1.3	73	0%	NR	94
Power: −3.3 · Projected record: 4.2-7.8 · <1% to win out · 16% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 113, defense No. 13: pass offense No. 71 · rush offense No. 134 · pass defense No. 64 · run defense No. 1 Deserved wins: 2.1 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 49 → Wk 2: 57 → Wk 3: 75 → Wk 4: 78 → Wk 5: 79 → Wk 6: 85 Next: vs No. 9 Utah (15%) · at Oklahoma State (25%) · vs Kansas State (43%) Colorado Buffaloes: full schedule, stats and players →
86	▲5	· American Athletic	3-2	6.3-5.7	−3.4	41	117	−7.4	77	0%	NR	74
Power: −3.4 · Projected record: 6.3-5.7 · 1% to win out · 71% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 4% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 41, defense No. 117: pass offense No. 97 · rush offense No. 10 · pass defense No. 119 · run defense No. 108 Deserved wins: 2.8 (actual: 3) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 93 → Wk 2: 117 → Wk 3: 97 → Wk 4: 97 → Wk 5: 91 → Wk 6: 86 Next: vs Florida Atlantic (53%) · at Tulsa (45%) · at Memphis (23%) Army Black Knights: full schedule, stats and players →
87	▼5	· Sun Belt	3-2	7.3-4.7	−3.7	53	41	−0.9	47	0%	NR	82
Power: −3.7 · Projected record: 7.3-4.7 · 4% to win out · 91% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 5% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 53, defense No. 41: pass offense No. 68 · rush offense No. 41 · pass defense No. 28 · run defense No. 77 Deserved wins: 2.8 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 47 → Wk 2: 54 → Wk 3: 80 → Wk 4: 81 → Wk 5: 82 → Wk 6: 87 Next: at UL Monroe (82%) · vs Old Dominion (70%) · at South Alabama (46%) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: full schedule, stats and players →
88	▼4	· SEC	2-4	3.3-8.7	−3.8	106	110	+5.0	86	0%	NR	96
Power: −3.8 · Projected record: 3.3-8.7 · 0% to win out · 3% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 106, defense No. 110: pass offense No. 93 · rush offense No. 114 · pass defense No. 92 · run defense No. 131 Deserved wins: 2.1 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 81 → Wk 2: 104 → Wk 3: 106 → Wk 4: 77 → Wk 5: 84 → Wk 6: 88 Next: at Vanderbilt (41%) · vs No. 12 Missouri (16%) · at Auburn (23%) Arkansas Razorbacks: full schedule, stats and players →
89	▲9	· Mid-American	4-2	8.1-3.9	−3.9	73	89	−7.2	60	0%	NR	87
Power: −3.9 · Projected record: 8.1-3.9 · 11% to win out · 98% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 26% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 73, defense No. 89: pass offense No. 81 · rush offense No. 60 · pass defense No. 102 · run defense No. 62 Deserved wins: 3.3 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 106 → Wk 2: 122 → Wk 3: 114 → Wk 4: 102 → Wk 5: 98 → Wk 6: 89 Next: at Sacramento State (87%) · vs Eastern Michigan (71%) · at Akron (77%) Ohio Bobcats: full schedule, stats and players →
90	▼13	· Big 12	3-2	4.9-7.1	−3.9	76	76	−4.2	58	0%	NR	41
Power: −3.9 · Projected record: 4.9-7.1 · 0% to win out · 30% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Arizona State about 8 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 41). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 76, defense No. 76: pass offense No. 73 · rush offense No. 82 · pass defense No. 81 · run defense No. 57 Deserved wins: 2.2 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 30 → Wk 2: 36 → Wk 3: 55 → Wk 4: 60 → Wk 5: 77 → Wk 6: 90 Next: at No. 11 Texas Tech (9%) · vs Kansas State (41%) · at No. 14 BYU (11%) Arizona State Sun Devils: full schedule, stats and players →
91	▼27	· ACC	3-3	5.4-6.6	−4.0	43	115	−2.5	87	0%	NR	54
Power: −4.0 · Projected record: 5.4-6.6 · 1% to win out · 46% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates NC State about 6 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 54). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 43, defense No. 115: pass offense No. 21 · rush offense No. 100 · pass defense No. 129 · run defense No. 83 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 71 → Wk 2: 44 → Wk 3: 62 → Wk 4: 63 → Wk 5: 64 → Wk 6: 91 Next: at Stanford (56%) · vs California (54%) · vs Duke (32%) NC State Wolfpack: full schedule, stats and players →
92	▼5	· American Athletic	3-3	6.2-5.8	−4.1	79	38	−5.9	102	0%	NR	85
Power: −4.1 · Projected record: 6.2-5.8 · 2% to win out · 71% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 79, defense No. 38: pass offense No. 114 · rush offense No. 19 · pass defense No. 49 · run defense No. 34 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 95 → Wk 2: 79 → Wk 3: 65 → Wk 4: 90 → Wk 5: 87 → Wk 6: 92 Next: at Rice (52%) · vs Army (55%) · at Tulane (44%) Tulsa Golden Hurricane: full schedule, stats and players →
93	▼13	· American Athletic	2-3	5.3-6.7	−4.4	118	93	−2.7	99	0%	NR	95
Power: −4.4 · Projected record: 5.3-6.7 · 1% to win out · 44% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 118, defense No. 93: pass offense No. 128 · rush offense No. 62 · pass defense No. 110 · run defense No. 53 Deserved wins: 1.5 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 45 → Wk 2: 67 → Wk 3: 71 → Wk 4: 80 → Wk 5: 80 → Wk 6: 93 Next: vs Memphis (32%) · vs UTSA (40%) · at Charlotte (82%) Tulane Green Wave: full schedule, stats and players →
94	▲2	· Sun Belt	3-2	6.4-5.6	−4.7	67	94	−8.7	74	0%	NR	98
Power: −4.7 · Projected record: 6.4-5.6 · 1% to win out · 75% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 67, defense No. 94: pass offense No. 89 · rush offense No. 42 · pass defense No. 80 · run defense No. 90 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 104 → Wk 2: 107 → Wk 3: 88 → Wk 4: 101 → Wk 5: 96 → Wk 6: 94 Next: at Louisiana (37%) · vs UL Monroe (88%) · at No. 25 James Madison (15%) Troy Trojans: full schedule, stats and players →
95	▲2	· Conference USA	4-2	8.2-3.8	−4.8	55	88	−8.1	70	0%	NR	78
Power: −4.8 · Projected record: 8.2-3.8 · 12% to win out · 99% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 22% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 55, defense No. 88: pass offense No. 41 · rush offense No. 72 · pass defense No. 57 · run defense No. 110 Deserved wins: 3.9 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 108 → Wk 2: 108 → Wk 3: 101 → Wk 4: 100 → Wk 5: 97 → Wk 6: 95 Next: at New Mexico State (57%) · vs Sam Houston (71%) · at Western Kentucky (57%) Jacksonville State Gamecocks: full schedule, stats and players →
96	▲8	· American Athletic	2-3	4.8-7.2	−4.9	65	95	−8.9	114	0%	NR	67
Power: −4.9 · Projected record: 4.8-7.2 · <1% to win out · 29% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 65, defense No. 95: pass offense No. 121 · rush offense No. 25 · pass defense No. 131 · run defense No. 23 Deserved wins: 2.6 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 101 → Wk 2: 103 → Wk 3: 104 → Wk 4: 113 → Wk 5: 104 → Wk 6: 96 Next: at UTSA (27%) · vs North Texas (36%) · vs No. 2 Notre Dame (3%) Navy Midshipmen: full schedule, stats and players →
97	▲10	· Sun Belt	4-2	7.4-4.6	−4.9	45	131	−8.7	64	0%	NR	89
Power: −4.9 · Projected record: 7.4-4.6 · 4% to win out · 92% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 5% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 45, defense No. 131: pass offense No. 30 · rush offense No. 54 · pass defense No. 120 · run defense No. 133 Deserved wins: 3.7 (actual: 4) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 116 → Wk 2: 95 → Wk 3: 107 → Wk 4: 109 → Wk 5: 107 → Wk 6: 97 Next: at Marshall (65%) · vs Louisiana Tech (54%) · at Louisiana (37%) South Alabama Jaguars: full schedule, stats and players →
98	▼4	· Mid-American	3-3	6.5-5.5	−5.4	49	101	−5.9	96	0%	NR	97
Power: −5.4 · Projected record: 6.5-5.5 · 4% to win out · 79% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 6% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 49, defense No. 101: pass offense No. 20 · rush offense No. 104 · pass defense No. 97 · run defense No. 72 Deserved wins: 3.8 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 97 → Wk 2: 83 → Wk 3: 74 → Wk 4: 75 → Wk 5: 94 → Wk 6: 98 Next: vs Akron (83%) · at Central Michigan (56%) · vs Buffalo (70%) Miami (OH) RedHawks: full schedule, stats and players →
99	–	· Mid-American	4-2	7.4-4.6	−5.7	98	56	−16.1	93	0%	NR	127
Power: −5.7 · Projected record: 7.4-4.6 · 4% to win out · 95% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Massachusetts about 7 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 127). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 98, defense No. 56: pass offense No. 44 · rush offense No. 118 · pass defense No. 44 · run defense No. 67 Deserved wins: 4.2 (actual: 4) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 77 → Wk 2: 62 → Wk 3: 86 → Wk 4: 71 → Wk 5: 99 → Wk 6: 99 Next: at Buffalo (57%) · at UConn (31%) · vs Ball State (77%) Massachusetts Minutemen: full schedule, stats and players →
100	▼17	· American Athletic	2-4	5.1-6.9	−6.1	62	119	−3.7	122	0%	NR	86
Power: −6.1 · Projected record: 5.1-6.9 · 1% to win out · 35% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 62, defense No. 119: pass offense No. 69 · rush offense No. 43 · pass defense No. 118 · run defense No. 101 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 96 → Wk 2: 102 → Wk 3: 92 → Wk 4: 94 → Wk 5: 83 → Wk 6: 100 Next: vs Charlotte (88%) · at East Carolina (30%) · at Navy (41%) Temple Owls: full schedule, stats and players →
101	▼13	· Pac-12	2-4	4.1-6.9*	−7.0	124	68	+0.9	105	0%	NR	114
Power: −7.0 · Projected record: 4.1-6.9* · 1% to win out · 10% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 124, defense No. 68: pass offense No. 126 · rush offense No. 91 · pass defense No. 103 · run defense No. 33 Deserved wins: 1.5 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 57 → Wk 2: 30 → Wk 3: 83 → Wk 4: 88 → Wk 5: 88 → Wk 6: 101 Next: vs Fresno State (35%) · at Colorado State (45%) · vs Washington State (61%) San Diego State Aztecs: full schedule, stats and players →
102	▲10	· American Athletic	1-5	3.4-8.6	−7.4	108	58	+0.7	129	0%	NR	123
Power: −7.4 · Projected record: 3.4-8.6 · 1% to win out · 5% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 108, defense No. 58: pass offense No. 136 · rush offense No. 80 · pass defense No. 12 · run defense No. 121 Deserved wins: 1.9 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 110 → Wk 2: 119 → Wk 3: 121 → Wk 4: 118 → Wk 5: 112 → Wk 6: 102 Next: vs Tulsa (48%) · at Florida Atlantic (31%) · at North Texas (20%) Rice Owls: full schedule, stats and players →
103	▼13	· Sun Belt	3-2	6.1-5.9	−7.7	92	87	−12.0	84	0%	NR	84
Power: −7.7 · Projected record: 6.1-5.9 · <1% to win out · 66% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 92, defense No. 87: pass offense No. 46 · rush offense No. 132 · pass defense No. 48 · run defense No. 115 Deserved wins: 3.2 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 86 → Wk 2: 60 → Wk 3: 82 → Wk 4: 89 → Wk 5: 90 → Wk 6: 103 Next: at Coastal Carolina (45%) · vs No. 25 James Madison (19%) · at Georgia Southern (31%) App State Mountaineers: full schedule, stats and players →
104	▲9	· Pac-12	2-3	3.9-7.1*	−7.7	26	135	−3.1	95	0%	NR	116
Power: −7.7 · Projected record: 3.9-7.1* · 1% to win out · 7% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 26, defense No. 135: pass offense No. 35 · rush offense No. 27 · pass defense No. 122 · run defense No. 136 Deserved wins: 2.3 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 94 → Wk 2: 88 → Wk 3: 105 → Wk 4: 95 → Wk 5: 113 → Wk 6: 104 Next: vs San Diego State (55%) · at Utah State (47%) · vs No. 23 Boise State (17%) Colorado State Rams: full schedule, stats and players →
105	▼3	· Conference USA	1-4	3.9-8.1	−7.9	105	98	−4.7	125	0%	NR	112
Power: −7.9 · Projected record: 3.9-8.1 · 2% to win out · 11% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 105, defense No. 98: pass offense No. 92 · rush offense No. 99 · pass defense No. 113 · run defense No. 64 Deserved wins: 1.6 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 76 → Wk 2: 98 → Wk 3: 100 → Wk 4: 107 → Wk 5: 102 → Wk 6: 105 Next: vs Liberty (29%) · at Middle Tennessee (51%) · vs Delaware (63%) Kennesaw State Owls: full schedule, stats and players →
106	▼6	· Sun Belt	2-4	5.0-7.0	−7.9	72	123	−4.8	120	0%	NR	90
Power: −7.9 · Projected record: 5.0-7.0 · 2% to win out · 35% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 72, defense No. 123: pass offense No. 88 · rush offense No. 47 · pass defense No. 117 · run defense No. 126 Deserved wins: 2.5 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 78 → Wk 2: 90 → Wk 3: 111 → Wk 4: 110 → Wk 5: 100 → Wk 6: 106 Next: at Southern Miss (57%) · vs Georgia State (34%) · vs UL Monroe (83%) Arkansas State Red Wolves: full schedule, stats and players →
107	▲7	· Sun Belt	2-4	4.3-7.7	−8.5	117	75	−8.4	131	0%	NR	111
Power: −8.5 · Projected record: 4.3-7.7 · <1% to win out · 16% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 117, defense No. 75: pass offense No. 122 · rush offense No. 69 · pass defense No. 78 · run defense No. 58 Deserved wins: 2.7 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 90 → Wk 2: 73 → Wk 3: 79 → Wk 4: 108 → Wk 5: 114 → Wk 6: 107 Next: vs App State (55%) · at Georgia State (22%) · vs Old Dominion (59%) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: full schedule, stats and players →
108	▼5	· Big Ten	1-4	2.3-9.7	−8.6	91	130	−2.2	123	0%	NR	91
Power: −8.6 · Projected record: 2.3-9.7 · 0% to win out · 1% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 91, defense No. 130: pass offense No. 61 · rush offense No. 115 · pass defense No. 88 · run defense No. 138 Deserved wins: 1.7 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 115 → Wk 2: 93 → Wk 3: 98 → Wk 4: 87 → Wk 5: 103 → Wk 6: 108 Next: at Maryland (28%) · at No. 21 Northwestern (9%) · vs Michigan (24%) Rutgers Scarlet Knights: full schedule, stats and players →
109	▼8	· Pac-12	1-5	2.5-8.5*	−8.7	131	74	−3.3	133	0%	NR	122
Power: −8.7 · Projected record: 2.5-8.5* · <1% to win out · <1% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 131, defense No. 74: pass offense No. 133 · rush offense No. 103 · pass defense No. 71 · run defense No. 66 Deserved wins: 1.3 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 53 → Wk 2: 92 → Wk 3: 84 → Wk 4: 92 → Wk 5: 101 → Wk 6: 109 Next: at Oregon State (12%) · vs No. 23 Boise State (16%) · at San Diego State (39%) Washington State Cougars: full schedule, stats and players →
110	▼5	· ACC	2-3	3.3-8.7	−8.8	129	48	−5.3	106	0%	NR	107
Power: −8.8 · Projected record: 3.3-8.7 · 0% to win out · 3% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 129, defense No. 48: pass offense No. 125 · rush offense No. 111 · pass defense No. 40 · run defense No. 69 Deserved wins: 1.9 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 98 → Wk 2: 97 → Wk 3: 113 → Wk 4: 104 → Wk 5: 105 → Wk 6: 110 Next: vs Pittsburgh (20%) · at Georgia Tech (30%) · at Duke (14%) Boston College Eagles: full schedule, stats and players →
111	▲16	· Mountain West	2-3	4.7-7.3	−8.9	112	107	−13.1	121	0%	NR	99
Power: −8.9 · Projected record: 4.7-7.3 · 0% to win out · 23% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 112, defense No. 107: pass offense No. 132 · rush offense No. 45 · pass defense No. 90 · run defense No. 98 Deserved wins: 2 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 87 → Wk 2: 128 → Wk 3: 127 → Wk 4: 125 → Wk 5: 127 → Wk 6: 111 Next: at North Dakota State (22%) · vs San José State (60%) · at No. 10 UCLA (5%) Nevada Wolf Pack: full schedule, stats and players →
112	▼3	· ACC	2-4	4.2-7.8	−9.0	103	133	+7.4	76	0%	NR	113
Power: −9.0 · Projected record: 4.2-7.8 · <1% to win out · 11% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 103, defense No. 133: pass offense No. 85 · rush offense No. 116 · pass defense No. 114 · run defense No. 137 Deserved wins: 1.9 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 124 → Wk 2: 100 → Wk 3: 108 → Wk 4: 99 → Wk 5: 109 → Wk 6: 112 Next: vs Elon (87%) · vs NC State (44%) · at Louisville (11%) Stanford Cardinal: full schedule, stats and players →
113	▼7	· Pac-12	2-4	3.5-7.5*	−9.3	135	44	−2.1	113	0%	NR	119
Power: −9.3 · Projected record: 3.5-7.5* · <1% to win out · 4% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 135, defense No. 44: pass offense No. 129 · rush offense No. 125 · pass defense No. 69 · run defense No. 27 Deserved wins: 2.1 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 133 → Wk 2: 118 → Wk 3: 119 → Wk 4: 105 → Wk 5: 106 → Wk 6: 113 Next: at Texas State (23%) · vs Colorado State (53%) · vs Fresno State (30%) Utah State Aggies: full schedule, stats and players →
114	▲2	· Sun Belt	2-4	4.3-7.7	−9.6	136	14	−3.0	117	0%	NR	108
Power: −9.6 · Projected record: 4.3-7.7 · 2% to win out · 13% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 136, defense No. 14: pass offense No. 137 · rush offense No. 130 · pass defense No. 18 · run defense No. 14 Deserved wins: 2.2 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 88 → Wk 2: 85 → Wk 3: 87 → Wk 4: 103 → Wk 5: 116 → Wk 6: 114 Next: at Louisiana Tech (30%) · vs Marshall (67%) · at Coastal Carolina (41%) Old Dominion Monarchs: full schedule, stats and players →
115	▲2	· Mid-American	4-3	6.0-6.0	−9.9	111	108	−10.7	103	0%	NR	117
Power: −9.9 · Projected record: 6.0-6.0 · 1% to win out · 67% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 5% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 111, defense No. 108: pass offense No. 113 · rush offense No. 85 · pass defense No. 116 · run defense No. 63 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 4) · Conference: 3-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 135 → Wk 2: 133 → Wk 3: 134 → Wk 4: 129 → Wk 5: 117 → Wk 6: 115 Next: vs Toledo (37%) · at Ohio (30%) · vs Central Michigan (51%) Eastern Michigan Eagles: full schedule, stats and players →
116	▼8	· Mountain West	3-3	5.9-7.1	−10.1	120	78	−8.5	107	0%	NR	103
Power: −10.1 · Projected record: 5.9-7.1 · <1% to win out · 59% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 120, defense No. 78: pass offense No. 84 · rush offense No. 135 · pass defense No. 41 · run defense No. 114 Deserved wins: 3.1 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 85 → Wk 2: 106 → Wk 3: 120 → Wk 4: 117 → Wk 5: 108 → Wk 6: 116 Next: at UTEP (61%) · at Nevada (41%) · vs New Mexico (16%) San José State Spartans: full schedule, stats and players →
117	▲2	· Conference USA	2-4	4.6-7.4	−10.4	132	104	−6.4	124	0%	NR	115
Power: −10.4 · Projected record: 4.6-7.4 · 1% to win out · 25% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 132, defense No. 104: pass offense No. 131 · rush offense No. 112 · pass defense No. 89 · run defense No. 95 Deserved wins: 2 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 118 → Wk 2: 112 → Wk 3: 117 → Wk 4: 127 → Wk 5: 119 → Wk 6: 117 Next: at Sam Houston (45%) · vs Jacksonville State (43%) · vs Liberty (24%) New Mexico State Aggies: full schedule, stats and players →
118	▲10	· Conference USA	2-4	5.1-6.9	−10.4	119	116	−2.7	109	0%	NR	121
Power: −10.4 · Projected record: 5.1-6.9 · 1% to win out · 37% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 119, defense No. 116: pass offense No. 100 · rush offense No. 121 · pass defense No. 75 · run defense No. 135 Deserved wins: 2.1 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 112 → Wk 2: 130 → Wk 3: 131 → Wk 4: 124 → Wk 5: 128 → Wk 6: 118 Next: vs Delaware (57%) · at Middle Tennessee (45%) · vs Jacksonville State (43%) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: full schedule, stats and players →
119	▼4	· Mid-American	3-3	6.1-5.9	−10.4	109	100	−5.1	83	0%	NR	110
Power: −10.4 · Projected record: 6.1-5.9 · 2% to win out · 67% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 109, defense No. 100: pass offense No. 138 · rush offense No. 23 · pass defense No. 86 · run defense No. 100 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 117 → Wk 2: 131 → Wk 3: 129 → Wk 4: 123 → Wk 5: 115 → Wk 6: 119 Next: vs Western Michigan (32%) · vs Miami (OH) (44%) · vs Eastern Michigan (49%) Central Michigan Chippewas: full schedule, stats and players →
120	▲2	· Conference USA	2-3	4.6-7.4	−10.5	94	113	−6.1	108	0%	NR	105
Power: −10.5 · Projected record: 4.6-7.4 · 1% to win out · 26% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 94, defense No. 113: pass offense No. 75 · rush offense No. 108 · pass defense No. 128 · run defense No. 74 Deserved wins: 1.2 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 102 → Wk 2: 86 → Wk 3: 91 → Wk 4: 106 → Wk 5: 122 → Wk 6: 120 Next: vs Missouri State (62%) · at Western Kentucky (43%) · at Kennesaw State (37%) Delaware Blue Hens: full schedule, stats and players →
121	▲3	· Conference USA	2-3	5.4-6.6	−10.9	114	112	−10.1	115	0%	NR	124
Power: −10.9 · Projected record: 5.4-6.6 · 1% to win out · 45% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 114, defense No. 112: pass offense No. 110 · rush offense No. 98 · pass defense No. 79 · run defense No. 129 Deserved wins: 2.4 (actual: 2) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 113 → Wk 2: 105 → Wk 3: 112 → Wk 4: 115 → Wk 5: 124 → Wk 6: 121 Next: at Florida International (25%) · vs Kennesaw State (49%) · vs Western Kentucky (55%) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: full schedule, stats and players →
122	▲9	· Mid-American	3-3	6.0-6.0	−11.0	110	111	−7.8	100	0%	NR	125
Power: −11.0 · Projected record: 6.0-6.0 · 3% to win out · 65% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 110, defense No. 111: pass offense No. 117 · rush offense No. 81 · pass defense No. 112 · run defense No. 75 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 129 → Wk 2: 113 → Wk 3: 124 → Wk 4: 133 → Wk 5: 131 → Wk 6: 122 Next: vs Massachusetts (43%) · vs Bowling Green (59%) · at Miami (OH) (30%) Buffalo Bulls: full schedule, stats and players →
123	▼3	· Conference USA	1-4	3.6-8.4	−11.1	85	66	−2.9	119	0%	NR	131
Power: −11.1 · Projected record: 3.6-8.4 · 1% to win out · 7% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 85, defense No. 66: pass offense No. 52 · rush offense No. 124 · pass defense No. 16 · run defense No. 124 Deserved wins: 1.6 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 120 → Wk 2: 126 → Wk 3: 109 → Wk 4: 120 → Wk 5: 120 → Wk 6: 123 Next: vs New Mexico State (55%) · at Missouri State (47%) · at Jacksonville State (29%) Sam Houston Bearkats: full schedule, stats and players →
124	▼3	· American Athletic	3-3	5.7-6.3	−11.2	126	57	−7.5	101	0%	NR	120
Power: −11.2 · Projected record: 5.7-6.3 · <1% to win out · 53% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 126, defense No. 57: pass offense No. 134 · rush offense No. 95 · pass defense No. 17 · run defense No. 93 Deserved wins: 3 (actual: 3) · Conference: 1-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 121 → Wk 2: 129 → Wk 3: 125 → Wk 4: 121 → Wk 5: 121 → Wk 6: 124 Next: at South Florida (17%) · vs Charlotte (80%) · at Temple (31%) UAB Blazers: full schedule, stats and players →
125	▲4	· Mid-American	2-4	4.4-7.6	−12.0	137	83	−6.0	118	0%	NR	129
Power: −12.0 · Projected record: 4.4-7.6 · 1% to win out · 19% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 2% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 137, defense No. 83: pass offense No. 112 · rush offense No. 138 · pass defense No. 22 · run defense No. 132 Deserved wins: 2.4 (actual: 2) · Conference: 2-0 Rank by week: Wk 1: 136 → Wk 2: 137 → Wk 3: 136 → Wk 4: 132 → Wk 5: 129 → Wk 6: 125 Next: vs Ball State (63%) · at Buffalo (41%) · at Western Michigan (18%) Bowling Green Falcons: full schedule, stats and players →
126	–	· Mid-American	2-4	4.8-7.2	−12.2	127	91	−2.3	111	0%	NR	133
Power: −12.2 · Projected record: 4.8-7.2 · 1% to win out · 28% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 127, defense No. 91: pass offense No. 108 · rush offense No. 133 · pass defense No. 77 · run defense No. 96 Deserved wins: 2.3 (actual: 2) · Conference: 1-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 131 → Wk 2: 135 → Wk 3: 130 → Wk 4: 128 → Wk 5: 126 → Wk 6: 126 Next: at South Florida (16%) · vs Akron (70%) · at Sacramento State (73%) Kent State Golden Flashes: full schedule, stats and players →
127	▼17	· Conference USA	1-4	4.1-7.9	−12.6	130	114	−7.3	127	0%	NR	126
Power: −12.6 · Projected record: 4.1-7.9 · <1% to win out · 13% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 130, defense No. 114: pass offense No. 119 · rush offense No. 110 · pass defense No. 101 · run defense No. 116 Deserved wins: 1.6 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 111 → Wk 2: 91 → Wk 3: 116 → Wk 4: 112 → Wk 5: 110 → Wk 6: 127 Next: at Delaware (38%) · vs Sam Houston (53%) · at Florida International (22%) Missouri State Bears: full schedule, stats and players →
128	▼10	· Sun Belt	1-4	3.4-8.6	−13.4	102	126	−5.7	126	0%	NR	132
Power: −13.4 · Projected record: 3.4-8.6 · <1% to win out · 6% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 102, defense No. 126: pass offense No. 111 · rush offense No. 59 · pass defense No. 109 · run defense No. 123 Deserved wins: 1.6 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 83 → Wk 2: 99 → Wk 3: 122 → Wk 4: 116 → Wk 5: 118 → Wk 6: 128 Next: vs Arkansas State (43%) · vs Louisiana (29%) · at UL Monroe (62%) Southern Miss Golden Eagles: full schedule, stats and players →
129	▼6	· Sun Belt	3-3	5.1-6.9	−13.9	56	138	−6.8	98	0%	NR	106
Power: −13.9 · Projected record: 5.1-6.9 · <1% to win out · 36% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Marshall about 6 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 106). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 56, defense No. 138: pass offense No. 49 · rush offense No. 58 · pass defense No. 138 · run defense No. 105 Deserved wins: 1.8 (actual: 3) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 109 → Wk 2: 111 → Wk 3: 103 → Wk 4: 119 → Wk 5: 123 → Wk 6: 129 Next: vs South Alabama (35%) · at Old Dominion (33%) · at Georgia Southern (19%) Marshall Thundering Herd: full schedule, stats and players →
130	▲2	· Mountain West	3-3	5.0-7.0	−14.4	125	106	−11.0	112	0%	NR	104
Power: −14.4 · Projected record: 5.0-7.0 · <1% to win out · 31% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Wyoming about 8 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 104). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 125, defense No. 106: pass offense No. 135 · rush offense No. 77 · pass defense No. 85 · run defense No. 89 Deserved wins: 2.9 (actual: 3) · Conference: 2-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 123 → Wk 2: 127 → Wk 3: 133 → Wk 4: 126 → Wk 5: 132 → Wk 6: 130 Next: vs Northern Illinois (70%) · vs Air Force (29%) · at UNLV (14%) Wyoming Cowboys: full schedule, stats and players →
131	▼1	· Mid-American	1-5	3.5-8.5	−14.6	101	118	−0.5	128	0%	NR	136
Power: −14.6 · Projected record: 3.5-8.5 · 1% to win out · 5% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: <1% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 101, defense No. 118: pass offense No. 60 · rush offense No. 128 · pass defense No. 123 · run defense No. 107 Deserved wins: 1.1 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 127 → Wk 2: 123 → Wk 3: 132 → Wk 4: 131 → Wk 5: 130 → Wk 6: 131 Next: at Bowling Green (37%) · vs Sacramento State (78%) · at Massachusetts (24%) Ball State Cardinals: full schedule, stats and players →
132	▼7	· Mountain West	1-5	3.4-8.6	−14.7	121	132	−7.9	137	0%	NR	118
Power: −14.7 · Projected record: 3.4-8.6 · <1% to win out · 4% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 121, defense No. 132: pass offense No. 107 · rush offense No. 120 · pass defense No. 121 · run defense No. 130 Deserved wins: 1.1 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 125 → Wk 2: 110 → Wk 3: 115 → Wk 4: 122 → Wk 5: 125 → Wk 6: 132 Next: vs New Mexico (10%) · at Northern Illinois (57%) · at UTEP (49%) Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: full schedule, stats and players →
133	–	· Mountain West	1-5	3.1-8.9	−17.1	133	125	−0.5	130	0%	NR	134
Power: −17.1 · Projected record: 3.1-8.9 · <1% to win out · 2% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 133, defense No. 125: pass offense No. 130 · rush offense No. 126 · pass defense No. 135 · run defense No. 87 Deserved wins: 1 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 126 → Wk 2: 116 → Wk 3: 123 → Wk 4: 130 → Wk 5: 133 → Wk 6: 133 Next: vs San José State (39%) · at North Dakota State (10%) · vs Hawai'i (51%) UTEP Miners: full schedule, stats and players →
134	–	· Mid-American	1-5	2.4-9.6	−18.1	96	136	−6.0	134	0%	NR	130
Power: −18.1 · Projected record: 2.4-9.6 · <1% to win out · 1% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 96, defense No. 136: pass offense No. 94 · rush offense No. 83 · pass defense No. 134 · run defense No. 97 Deserved wins: 1.8 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 130 → Wk 2: 120 → Wk 3: 128 → Wk 4: 134 → Wk 5: 134 → Wk 6: 134 Next: at Miami (OH) (17%) · at Kent State (30%) · vs Ohio (24%) Akron Zips: full schedule, stats and players →
135	–	· Mountain West	0-5	1.9-10.1	−20.1	122	109	−1.5	132	0%	NR	128
Power: −20.1 · Projected record: 1.9-10.1 · 0% to win out · <1% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Vegas disagrees: the model rates Northern Illinois about 8 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 128). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time. Offense No. 122, defense No. 109: pass offense No. 103 · rush offense No. 123 · pass defense No. 73 · run defense No. 118 Deserved wins: 0.4 (actual: 0) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 132 → Wk 2: 136 → Wk 3: 137 → Wk 4: 136 → Wk 5: 135 → Wk 6: 135 Next: at Wyoming (30%) · vs Hawai'i (43%) · at UNLV (8%) Northern Illinois Huskies: full schedule, stats and players →
136	▲1	· Sun Belt	0-5	1.6-10.4	−20.8	123	134	−6.3	135	0%	NR	135
Power: −20.8 · Projected record: 1.6-10.4 · 0% to win out · <1% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 123, defense No. 134: pass offense No. 116 · rush offense No. 97 · pass defense No. 132 · run defense No. 117 Deserved wins: 0.2 (actual: 0) · Conference: 0-1 Rank by week: Wk 1: 134 → Wk 2: 132 → Wk 3: 135 → Wk 4: 137 → Wk 5: 137 → Wk 6: 136 Next: vs Louisiana Tech (18%) · at Troy (12%) · vs Southern Miss (38%) UL Monroe Warhawks: full schedule, stats and players →
137	▼1	· American Athletic	0-6	0.9-11.1	−21.9	134	124	−2.2	138	0%	NR	138
Power: −21.9 · Projected record: 0.9-11.1 · 0% to win out · 0% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 134, defense No. 124: pass offense No. 127 · rush offense No. 127 · pass defense No. 126 · run defense No. 112 Deserved wins: 0.1 (actual: 0) · Conference: 0-2 Rank by week: Wk 1: 137 → Wk 2: 134 → Wk 3: 126 → Wk 4: 135 → Wk 5: 136 → Wk 6: 137 Next: at Temple (13%) · vs Tulane (18%) · at UAB (20%) Charlotte 49ers: full schedule, stats and players →
138	–	· Mid-American	1-5	2.1-9.9	−24.5	128	121	−8.2	136	0%	NR	137
Power: −24.5 · Projected record: 2.1-9.9 · 0% to win out · <1% to reach 6 wins Playoff: 0% · Conference title: 0% · Bye: 0% · National title: 0% Offense No. 128, defense No. 121: pass offense No. 118 · rush offense No. 117 · pass defense No. 105 · run defense No. 122 Deserved wins: 1.2 (actual: 1) · Conference: 0-3 Rank by week: Wk 1: 138 → Wk 2: 138 → Wk 3: 138 → Wk 4: 138 → Wk 5: 138 → Wk 6: 138 Next: vs Ohio (13%) · at Ball State (22%) · vs Kent State (27%) Sacramento State Hornets: full schedule, stats and players →

Where Vegas disagrees most: UCLA (No. 10 here, No. 49 in Vegas; 12 points higher), Alabama (No. 1 here, No. 9 in Vegas; 10 points higher), Mississippi State (No. 19 here, No. 59 in Vegas; 9 points higher), Missouri (No. 12 here, No. 27 in Vegas; 8 points higher), Houston (No. 15 here, No. 29 in Vegas; 6 points higher). These are the model's boldest calls; when the model and the line have disagreed by 6+ points on a game, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Playoff picture

Each team's chances from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, conference title games and the 12-team playoff. The four Power 4 champions and the highest-ranked team from the other six conferences (champion or not, new for 2026) get automatic bids (Notre Dame too, if it's in the top 12), and the top four get first-round byes.

Team	Projected	Conf. title	Playoff	Bye	National title
Notre Dame · FBS Independents	11.2-0.8	n/a	99%	80%	20%
Alabama · SEC	10.2-1.8	49%	99%	78%	25%
Georgia · SEC	10.9-1.1	39%	95%	56%	13%
Miami · ACC	10.6-1.4	73%	90%	49%	11%
Ohio State · Big Ten	9.2-2.8	35%	80%	32%	8%
Indiana · Big Ten	10.6-1.4	30%	79%	27%	4%
Texas · SEC	8.7-3.3	5%	69%	18%	4%
UCLA · Big Ten	10.6-1.4	22%	65%	14%	2%
Texas Tech · Big 12	10.3-1.7	28%	51%	11%	2%
Utah · Big 12	10.1-1.9	28%	51%	12%	2%
Boise State · Pac-12	9.0-2.0*	53%	39%	<1%	<1%
BYU · Big 12	9.5-2.5	22%	39%	7%	1%
James Madison · Sun Belt	10.9-1.1	65%	38%	<1%	<1%
Missouri · SEC	8.5-3.5	3%	38%	3%	1%
LSU · SEC	7.8-4.2	1%	34%	3%	2%
Houston · Big 12	9.2-2.8	11%	30%	3%	1%

Model estimates. Nobody can simulate the committee exactly, so selection is approximated: teams are ranked by strength, losses and schedule strength, with a small bump for conference champions. Odds for teams with tough schedules are the most sensitive to that choice.

Week 7 games

Game of the week · Sat 12:00 PM ET

No. 5 Ohio State at No. 6 Indiana

52% Ohio State by 0.9

Ohio StateIndiana

Vegas: Ohio State by 3

Biggest disagreement with Vegas · Sat 7:30 PM ET

Louisville at Syracuse

66% Louisville by 6.6

LouisvilleSyracuse

Vegas: Louisville by 15. Treat it as a long shot: when the gap has been 6+ points, the line has ended up closer to the result 62% of the time (2022-2025).

Where the model and Vegas disagree most (games with a ranked or Power 4 team)

Big gaps usually mean the line knows something the model doesn't, like an injury. In 2022-2025, when the gap was 6+ points, the line ended up closer to the final margin 62% of the time; when they picked different winners, Vegas was right 54% of the time.

Game	Model	Win %	Vegas
Louisville at Syracuse	Louisville by 6.6	66%	Louisville by 15
No. 19 Mississippi State at No. 8 LSU	LSU by 8.7	71%	LSU by 16.5
Pittsburgh at Boston College	Pittsburgh by 13.5	80%	Pittsburgh by 6.5
Wisconsin at No. 10 UCLA	UCLA by 8.9	71%	UCLA by 2.5
Oklahoma State at No. 15 Houston	Houston by 10.7	75%	Houston by 4.5

All 52 week 7 picks

Game	Kickoff	Model	Win %	Vegas
Memphis at Tulane	Fri 7:30 PM ET	Memphis by 7.5	68%	Memphis by 7
Washington at Purdue	Fri 8:00 PM ET	Purdue by 7.2	68%	Purdue by 3
App State at Coastal Carolina	Fri 8:00 PM ET	Coastal Carolina by 1.8	55%	App State by 1.5
Florida Atlantic at Army	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Army by 1.2	53%	Army by 2.5
No. 21 Northwestern at Michigan State	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Northwestern by 8.8	71%	Northwestern by 7
Georgia State at No. 25 James Madison	Sat 12:00 PM ET	James Madison by 10.2	74%	James Madison by 10
Cincinnati at West Virginia	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Pick'em	51%	West Virginia by 1.5
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 6 Indiana	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Ohio State by 0.9	52%	Ohio State by 3
Virginia at SMU	Sat 12:00 PM ET	SMU by 4.7	62%	SMU by 10
Pittsburgh at Boston College	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Pittsburgh by 13.5	80%	Pittsburgh by 6.5
No. 19 Mississippi State at No. 8 LSU	Sat 12:00 PM ET	LSU by 8.7	71%	LSU by 16.5
Florida at No. 7 Texas	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Texas by 12.2	78%	Texas by 11.5
Ball State at Bowling Green	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Bowling Green by 5.2	63%	Bowling Green by 6.5
Kansas at Kansas State	Sat 12:00 PM ET	Kansas State by 3.6	59%	Kansas State by 3.5
Rutgers at Maryland	Sat 12:30 PM ET	Maryland by 9.1	72%	Maryland by 5.5
Massachusetts at Buffalo	Sat 1:00 PM ET	Massachusetts by 2.7	57%	Buffalo by 7
Charlotte at Temple	Sat 1:00 PM ET	Temple by 18.4	88%	Temple by 21
Western Michigan at Central Michigan	Sat 1:30 PM ET	Western Michigan by 7.7	68%	Western Michigan by 7
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Virginia Tech by 8.9	71%	Virginia Tech by 8.5
Toledo at Eastern Michigan	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Toledo by 5.2	63%	Toledo by 6.5
No. 12 Missouri at No. 18 Ole Miss	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Missouri by 0.9	52%	Ole Miss by 5.5
Akron at Miami (OH)	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Miami (OH) by 15.3	83%	Miami (OH) by 10
No. 1 Alabama at No. 17 Tennessee	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Alabama by 12.0	77%	Alabama by 8
Arizona State at No. 11 Texas Tech	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Texas Tech by 21.2	91%	Texas Tech by 16
Penn State at Michigan	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Michigan by 1.7	54%	Michigan by 6.5
Northern Illinois at Wyoming	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Wyoming by 8.3	70%	Wyoming by 8
UNLV at Air Force	Sat 3:30 PM ET	UNLV by 0.8	52%	Air Force by 1.5
North Carolina at Duke	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Duke by 3.6	59%	Duke by 3
Auburn at No. 3 Georgia	Sat 3:30 PM ET	Georgia by 19.8	89%	Georgia by 19.5
Tulsa at Rice	Sat 4:30 PM ET	Tulsa by 0.7	52%	Tulsa by 4.5
Troy at Louisiana	Sat 5:00 PM ET	Louisiana by 5.3	63%	Louisiana by 3
Washington State at Oregon State	Sat 6:00 PM ET	Oregon State by 18.9	88%	Oregon State by 18.5
Kent State at South Florida	Sat 7:00 PM ET	South Florida by 16.2	85%	South Florida by 21
Florida State at No. 4 Miami	Sat 7:00 PM ET	Miami by 18.8	88%	Miami by 20.5
Arkansas at Vanderbilt	Sat 7:00 PM ET	Vanderbilt by 3.5	59%	Vanderbilt by 6
TCU at Baylor	Sat 7:00 PM ET	Baylor by 6.7	66%	Baylor by 6
Nevada at North Dakota State	Sat 7:00 PM ET	North Dakota State by 12.3	78%	North Dakota State by 14.5
Arkansas State at Southern Miss	Sat 7:00 PM ET	Arkansas State by 2.9	57%	Arkansas State by 6.5
Kentucky at Oklahoma	Sat 7:30 PM ET	Oklahoma by 2.6	57%	Oklahoma by 6.5
Louisville at Syracuse	Sat 7:30 PM ET	Louisville by 6.6	66%	Louisville by 15
Oklahoma State at No. 15 Houston	Sat 7:30 PM ET	Houston by 10.7	75%	Houston by 4.5
No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 14 BYU	Sat 7:30 PM ET	Notre Dame by 9.0	71%	Notre Dame by 10.5
Wisconsin at No. 10 UCLA	Sat 7:30 PM ET	UCLA by 8.9	71%	UCLA by 2.5
Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe	Sat 8:00 PM ET	Louisiana Tech by 14.5	82%	Louisiana Tech by 15.5
Navy at UTSA	Sat 8:00 PM ET	UTSA by 9.7	73%	UTSA by 7
San José State at UTEP	Sat 9:00 PM ET	San José State by 4.4	61%	San José State by 7
Ohio at Sacramento State	Sat 10:00 PM ET	Ohio by 18.0	87%	Ohio by 15.5
No. 9 Utah at Colorado	Sat 10:15 PM ET	Utah by 16.4	85%	Utah by 14.5
No. 22 Wake Forest at California	Sat 10:30 PM ET	Wake Forest by 10.6	75%	Wake Forest by 10
New Mexico at Hawai'i	Sat 10:30 PM ET	New Mexico by 20.5	90%	New Mexico by 14.5
Fresno State at San Diego State	Sat 10:30 PM ET	Fresno State by 6.3	65%	Fresno State by 7.5
No. 13 Nebraska at No. 16 Oregon	Sat 11:00 PM ET	Oregon by 2.0	55%	Oregon by 7

Track record

This season: every pick is locked before kickoff, and grading starts with week 7's games. Results will show up here, misses included.

Tested on 2022-2025 (2,410 games, never peeking ahead): the model picked 71.2% of winners and missed final margins by 12.4 points on average. The Vegas closing line picked 72.2% and missed by 12.0.

The 12.4 vs. 12.0 comparison covers week 4 on; in weeks 1-3, when ratings still lean on preseason expectations, the model is weaker (13.7 vs. 12.2).

Are the win probabilities honest?

Every game from 2022-2025, weeks 1-15 (2,806 games), grouped by the model's win probability for the favorite.

Model gave the favorite	Favorite won (2022-2025)
50-60%	56% of 709
60-70%	65% of 718
70-80%	76% of 599
80-90%	87% of 460
90%+	93% of 320

How it works

Each team starts the season from a preseason rating built from last season, returning production and roster talent. Every game moves the rating toward what actually happened, using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, with opponent strength and a 2.6-point home edge built in. The preseason rating fades as the season goes: it counts for less from week 7 and not at all from week 10, so midseason rankings come from this season's games. Injuries and depth-chart changes aren't in the model; when one matters, team pages and the weekly post flag it. Projections and playoff odds simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times, including conference title games and the playoff bracket. This page and the weekly posts update automatically from the model's data; I built the model and the automation with Claude as a pair programmer, and the choices about what to measure and say are mine. Data from CollegeFootballData.com. Download this week's rankings as JSON.

Model changelog

Oct 16, 2026 · Preseason expectations fade out. Preseason ratings now fade as the season goes: they count for less from week 7 and not at all from week 10, so midseason rankings come from this season's games. Tested on 2022 through 2025, the change predicts as well as before (12.46 vs. 12.40 points of average miss, 71.4% vs. 71.2% of winners picked). Week 7 picks were re-locked with the updated model before any game kicked off; the original picks are kept in the data. Thanks to the r/CFB readers who asked why 3-2 Oregon sat above the UCLA team that beat it.
Oct 16, 2026 · Quarterback injuries priced, Vegas ranking added. A confirmed quarterback absence now moves a team's rating by half the gap between the starter and his replacement, measured with opponent-adjusted EPA, with little-used backups valued near replacement level. Tested on the 246 games in 2024 and 2025 where an established starter sat, that cut the average miss on those games from 12.29 to 12.06 points and helped in both seasons. Other injuries are noted on team pages and in posts but not priced: missing running backs and receivers showed no reliable effect. The rankings also show the betting market's ranking now, for comparison only. And a play-by-play fix: players whose names end in Jr. could have plays credited to a teammate with the same number (160 plays this season); unit ranks and player numbers now use the corrected data.