Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is No. 18 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.8-4.2, with a 2% chance to win out and a 14% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Ole Miss at No. 9.
2026 at a glance
- #18in the model (▲2 from last week)
- 7.8-4.2projected final record
- +11.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 14%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Ole Miss's best unit is its pass offense (No. 16 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 98). Overall, the offense ranks No. 11 and the defense No. 97, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 18, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Ole Miss's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 18) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Ole Miss would usually have won 2.8 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the SEC, 14% to make the 12-team playoff, 1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 97% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 38.8points per game
- 28points allowed per game
- 52%offensive success rate
- 47%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Trinidad Chambliss, 1,435 yards, 11 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Kewan Lacy, 230 yards on 46 carries, 5 TD
- Receiving: Deuce Alexander, 32 catches, 503 yards, 5 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Louisville | W 41-38 | 66% win |
| 2 | vs Charlotte | W 41-9 | 99% win |
| 3 | vs No. 8 LSU | W 32-24 | 15% win |
| 4 | at Florida | L 28-52 | <1% win |
| 6 | at Vanderbilt | W 52-17 | >99% win |
| 7 | vs No. 12 Missouri | 48% to win | |
| 8 | at No. 7 Texas | 30% to win | |
| 9 | vs Auburn | 70% to win | |
| 10 | vs No. 3 Georgia | 29% to win | |
| 11 | at Oklahoma | 49% to win | |
| 12 | vs Wofford | 99% to win | |
| 13 | vs No. 19 Mississippi State | 57% to win |
SEC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-1 | 3-1 | 10.2-1.8 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6-0 | 4-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 7 | Texas | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 8 | LSU | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 26 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 3-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 2-2 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 42 | Auburn | 3-2 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 82 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 88 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 0-3 | 3.3-8.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.