College Football Power Rankings · SEC

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State is No. 19 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.1-3.9, with a 2% chance to win out and a 15% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Mississippi State at No. 16.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Mississippi State about 9 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 59, model: No. 19). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Mississippi State in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #19in the model (▲2 from last week)
  • 8.1-3.9projected final record
  • +10.7points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 15%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Mississippi State's best unit is its rush offense (No. 1 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 66). Overall, the offense ranks No. 10 and the defense No. 54, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 11, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Mississippi State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 19) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Mississippi State would usually have won 3.3 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 1% to win the SEC, 15% to make the 12-team playoff, 1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 29 → Wk 2: 23 → Wk 3: 16 → Wk 4: 16 → Wk 5: 21 → Wk 6: 19
Week 1: No. 29Week 2: No. 23Week 3: No. 16Week 4: No. 16Week 5: No. 21Week 6: No. 19

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 39points per game
  • 28points allowed per game
  • 49%offensive success rate
  • 42%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Kamario Taylor, 1,450 yards, 17 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing: Fluff Bothwell, 403 yards on 74 carries, 3 TD
  • Receiving: Anthony Evans III, 40 catches, 574 yards, 5 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs UL MonroeW 62-1398% win
2at MinnesotaW 38-1398% win
3at South CarolinaW 41-34100% win
4vs No. 12 MissouriW 31-2436% win
5vs No. 1 AlabamaL 23-561% win
7at No. 8 LSU29% to win
8vs Oklahoma61% to win
9at No. 7 Texas29% to win
10vs Vanderbilt85% to win
11vs Auburn70% to win
12vs Tennessee Tech99% to win
13at No. 18 Ole Miss43% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

SEC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
1Alabama5-13-110.2-1.8
3Georgia6-04-010.9-1.1
7Texas4-11-18.7-3.3
8LSU4-21-27.8-4.2
12Missouri5-12-18.5-3.5
17Tennessee5-12-18.1-3.9
18Ole Miss4-12-17.8-4.2
19Mississippi State4-12-18.1-3.9
26Oklahoma3-21-16.4-5.6
27Kentucky5-13-18.1-3.9
31Texas A&M3-31-35.7-6.3
33South Carolina3-31-35.9-6.1
37Florida4-22-26.6-5.4
42Auburn3-21-25.8-6.2
82Vanderbilt3-30-34.4-7.6
88Arkansas2-40-33.3-8.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.