College Football Power Rankings · SEC

Missouri Tigers

Missouri is No. 12 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.5-3.5, with a 4% chance to win out and a 38% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Missouri at No. 13.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Missouri about 8 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 27, model: No. 12). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Missouri in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #12in the model (▲1 from last week)
  • 8.5-3.5projected final record
  • +14.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 38%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Missouri's best unit is its run defense (No. 2 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 68). Overall, the offense ranks No. 47 and the defense No. 5, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 17, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Missouri's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 12) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Missouri would usually have won 5.4 games; it has won 5.

Postseason odds: 3% to win the SEC, 38% to make the 12-team playoff, 3% to earn a first-round bye and 1% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 27 → Wk 2: 14 → Wk 3: 20 → Wk 4: 23 → Wk 5: 13 → Wk 6: 12
Week 1: No. 27Week 2: No. 14Week 3: No. 20Week 4: No. 23Week 5: No. 13Week 6: No. 12

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 35.8points per game
  • 17.7points allowed per game
  • 43%offensive success rate
  • 33%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Austin Simmons, 1,417 yards, 14 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: Jamal Roberts, 828 yards on 147 carries, 8 TD
  • Receiving: Cayden Lee, 40 catches, 590 yards, 5 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs Arkansas-Pine BluffW 54-1499% win
2at KansasW 38-2199% win
3vs TroyW 27-17100% win
4at No. 19 Mississippi StateL 24-3164% win
5vs FloridaW 45-1788% win
6vs Texas A&MW 27-687% win
7at No. 18 Ole Miss52% to win
9at Arkansas84% to win
10vs No. 7 Texas51% to win
11at No. 3 Georgia26% to win
12vs Kentucky70% to win
13vs Oklahoma70% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

SEC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
1Alabama5-13-110.2-1.8
3Georgia6-04-010.9-1.1
7Texas4-11-18.7-3.3
8LSU4-21-27.8-4.2
12Missouri5-12-18.5-3.5
17Tennessee5-12-18.1-3.9
18Ole Miss4-12-17.8-4.2
19Mississippi State4-12-18.1-3.9
26Oklahoma3-21-16.4-5.6
27Kentucky5-13-18.1-3.9
31Texas A&M3-31-35.7-6.3
33South Carolina3-31-35.9-6.1
37Florida4-22-26.6-5.4
42Auburn3-21-25.8-6.2
82Vanderbilt3-30-34.4-7.6
88Arkansas2-40-33.3-8.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.