Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas is No. 88 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-4, 0-3 in conference play). Its projected final record is 3.3-8.7, with a 0% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #88in the model (▼4 from last week)
- 3.3-8.7projected final record
- −3.8points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Arkansas's best unit is its pass defense (No. 92 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 131). Overall, the offense ranks No. 106 and the defense No. 110, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 86, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Arkansas's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 88) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Arkansas would usually have won 2.1 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the SEC, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 3% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 19.3points per game
- 27.7points allowed per game
- 42%offensive success rate
- 43%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: KJ Jackson, 1,193 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Sutton Smith, 166 yards on 50 carries, 1 TD
- Receiving: Chris Marshall, 42 catches, 573 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs North Alabama | W 31-14 | >99% win |
| 2 | at No. 9 Utah | L 10-43 | 1% win |
| 3 | vs No. 3 Georgia | L 17-45 | 0% win |
| 4 | vs Tulsa | W 34-6 | 99% win |
| 5 | at Texas A&M | L 7-34 | 2% win |
| 6 | vs No. 17 Tennessee | L 17-24 | 13% win |
| 7 | at Vanderbilt | 41% to win | |
| 9 | vs No. 12 Missouri | 16% to win | |
| 10 | at Auburn | 23% to win | |
| 11 | vs South Carolina | 29% to win | |
| 12 | at No. 7 Texas | 7% to win | |
| 13 | vs No. 8 LSU | 13% to win |
SEC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-1 | 3-1 | 10.2-1.8 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6-0 | 4-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 7 | Texas | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 8 | LSU | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 26 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 3-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 2-2 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 42 | Auburn | 3-2 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 82 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 88 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 0-3 | 3.3-8.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.