Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is No. 26 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.4-5.6, with a 1% chance to win out and a 6% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #26in the model (▼2 from last week)
- 6.4-5.6projected final record
- +9.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 6%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Oklahoma's best unit is its pass defense (No. 15 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 113). Overall, the offense ranks No. 81 and the defense No. 11, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 25, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Oklahoma's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 26) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Oklahoma would usually have won 2.7 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the SEC, 6% to make the 12-team playoff, <1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 74% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 23points per game
- 17.6points allowed per game
- 37%offensive success rate
- 32%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: John Mateer, 1,038 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Lloyd Avant, 236 yards on 52 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Isaiah Sategna, 25 catches, 331 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UTEP | W 51-0 | >99% win |
| 2 | at Michigan | L 10-17 | 11% win |
| 3 | vs New Mexico | W 14-6 | 66% win |
| 4 | at No. 3 Georgia | L 13-41 | 26% win |
| 6 | vs No. 7 Texas | W 27-24 | 65% win |
| 7 | vs Kentucky | 57% to win | |
| 8 | at No. 19 Mississippi State | 39% to win | |
| 9 | vs South Carolina | 60% to win | |
| 10 | at Florida | 48% to win | |
| 11 | vs No. 18 Ole Miss | 51% to win | |
| 12 | vs Texas A&M | 59% to win | |
| 13 | at No. 12 Missouri | 30% to win |
SEC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-1 | 3-1 | 10.2-1.8 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6-0 | 4-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 7 | Texas | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 8 | LSU | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 26 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 3-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 2-2 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 42 | Auburn | 3-2 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 82 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 88 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 0-3 | 3.3-8.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.