Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is No. 41 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 0-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.0-6.0, with a <1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #41in the model (▼4 from last week)
- 6.0-6.0projected final record
- +5.3points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Michigan's best unit is its pass defense (No. 21 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 109). Overall, the offense ranks No. 99 and the defense No. 24, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 55, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Michigan's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 41) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Michigan would usually have won 3.3 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the Big Ten, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 64% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 23points per game
- 15.8points allowed per game
- 42%offensive success rate
- 33%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Bryce Underwood, 881 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Jordan Marshall, 244 yards on 55 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: JJ Buchanan, 24 catches, 446 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Michigan | W 13-12 | 50% win |
| 2 | vs Oklahoma | W 17-10 | 89% win |
| 3 | vs UTEP | W 52-17 | 99% win |
| 4 | vs Iowa | L 19-20 | 83% win |
| 5 | at Minnesota | L 14-20 | 11% win |
| 7 | vs Penn State | 54% to win | |
| 8 | vs No. 6 Indiana | 27% to win | |
| 9 | at Rutgers | 76% to win | |
| 10 | vs Michigan State | 71% to win | |
| 11 | at No. 16 Oregon | 27% to win | |
| 12 | vs No. 10 UCLA | 33% to win | |
| 13 | at No. 5 Ohio State | 13% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.