Western Michigan Broncos

Western Michigan is No. 65 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.3-3.7, with a 15% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Western Michigan in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #65in the model (▲21 from last week)
  • 8.3-3.7projected final record
  • −0.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Western Michigan's best unit is its run defense (No. 49 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 76). Overall, the offense ranks No. 71 and the defense No. 62, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 57, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Western Michigan's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 65) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Western Michigan would usually have won 3.8 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 40% to win the Mid-American, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 62 → Wk 2: 51 → Wk 3: 69 → Wk 4: 84 → Wk 5: 86 → Wk 6: 65
Week 1: No. 62Week 2: No. 51Week 3: No. 69Week 4: No. 84Week 5: No. 86Week 6: No. 65

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 25.7points per game
  • 17.3points allowed per game
  • 43%offensive success rate
  • 43%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Broc Lowry, 996 yards, 7 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: Jalen Buckley, 392 yards on 78 carries, 5 TD
  • Receiving: Aveion Chenault, 20 catches, 292 yards, 1 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at MichiganL 12-1350% win
2vs MonmouthW 49-1499% win
3at RiceW 28-2161% win
4vs No. 23 Boise StateL 7-321% win
5at BuffaloW 20-1767% win
6vs Kent StateW 38-799% win
7at Central Michigan68% to win
8at Toledo48% to win
9vs Bowling Green82% to win
11at Akron83% to win
12vs Eastern Michigan78% to win
13vs Miami (OH)69% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Mid-American in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
75Toledo4-21-18.0-4.0
89Ohio4-22-08.1-3.9
98Miami (OH)3-31-16.5-5.5
99Massachusetts4-21-27.4-4.6
115Eastern Michigan4-33-06.0-6.0
119Central Michigan3-31-16.1-5.9
122Buffalo3-31-16.0-6.0
125Bowling Green2-42-04.4-7.6
126Kent State2-41-24.8-7.2
131Ball State1-50-23.5-8.5
134Akron1-50-22.4-9.6
138Sacramento State1-50-32.1-9.9

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.