Boise State Broncos
Boise State is No. 23 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 9.0-2.0, with a 33% chance to win out and a 39% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Boise State at No. 23.
2026 at a glance
- #23in the model (▼1 from last week)
- 9.0-2.0projected final record
- +10.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 39%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Boise State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 7 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 85). Overall, the offense ranks No. 7 and the defense No. 77, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 20, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Boise State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 23) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Boise State would usually have won 4.8 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 53% to win the Pac-12, 39% to make the 12-team playoff, <1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 35points per game
- 22.3points allowed per game
- 49%offensive success rate
- 37%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Maddux Madsen, 1,296 yards, 13 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: Dylan Riley, 835 yards on 127 carries, 6 TD
- Receiving: Rasean Jones, 23 catches, 359 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at No. 16 Oregon | L 27-34 | 6% win |
| 2 | vs Memphis | W 38-20 | 95% win |
| 3 | vs South Dakota | W 38-24 | 96% win |
| 4 | at Western Michigan | W 32-7 | 99% win |
| 5 | vs Utah State | W 37-18 | 99% win |
| 6 | at Fresno State | W 38-31 | 80% win |
| 8 | at Washington State | 85% to win | |
| 9 | vs Texas State | 79% to win | |
| 10 | at Colorado State | 83% to win | |
| 11 | vs Oregon State | 63% to win | |
| 12 | vs San Diego State | 89% to win |
Pac-12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Boise State | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.0-2.0 |
| 34 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.5-3.5 |
| 57 | Fresno State | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.1-3.9 |
| 66 | Texas State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.5-5.5 |
| 101 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.1-6.9 |
| 104 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3.9-7.1 |
| 109 | Washington State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.5-8.5 |
| 113 | Utah State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3.5-7.5 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.