College Football Power Rankings · Pac-12

Oregon State Beavers

Oregon State is No. 34 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.5-3.5, with a 14% chance to win out and a 7% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Oregon State in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #34in the model (▲24 from last week)
  • 7.5-3.5projected final record
  • +7.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 7%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Oregon State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 19 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 49). Overall, the offense ranks No. 18 and the defense No. 32, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 48, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Oregon State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 34) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Oregon State would usually have won 3.7 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 37% to win the Pac-12, 7% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 97% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 105 → Wk 2: 109 → Wk 3: 96 → Wk 4: 74 → Wk 5: 58 → Wk 6: 34
Week 1: No. 105Week 2: No. 109Week 3: No. 96Week 4: No. 74Week 5: No. 58Week 6: No. 34

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 41.8points per game
  • 22points allowed per game
  • 51%offensive success rate
  • 40%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Braden Atkinson, 2,236 yards, 21 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing: AJ Newberry, 326 yards on 54 carries, 3 TD
  • Receiving: Jesse Legree, 38 catches, 932 yards, 12 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at No. 15 HoustonL 20-333% win
2vs No. 11 Texas TechL 24-350% win
3vs MontanaW 52-1799% win
4at UTEPW 33-797% win
5at Colorado StateW 56-2679% win
6vs San Diego StateW 66-1499% win
7vs Washington State88% to win
9at Fresno State58% to win
10vs Texas State74% to win
11at No. 23 Boise State37% to win
12vs Utah State89% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Pac-12 in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
23Boise State5-12-09.0-2.0
34Oregon State4-22-07.5-3.5
57Fresno State4-21-17.1-3.9
66Texas State2-30-15.5-5.5
101San Diego State2-41-14.1-6.9
104Colorado State2-30-13.9-7.1
109Washington State1-50-22.5-8.5
113Utah State2-41-13.5-7.5

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.