College Football Power Rankings · Big 12

Houston Cougars

Houston is No. 15 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 9.2-2.8, with a 12% chance to win out and a 30% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Houston at No. 20.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Houston about 6 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 29, model: No. 15). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Houston in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #15in the model (▲11 from last week)
  • 9.2-2.8projected final record
  • +13.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 30%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Houston's best unit is its pass offense (No. 4 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 53). Overall, the offense ranks No. 6 and the defense No. 35, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 12, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Houston's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 15) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Houston would usually have won 5.3 games; it has won 5.

Postseason odds: 11% to win the Big 12, 30% to make the 12-team playoff, 3% to earn a first-round bye and 1% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 50 → Wk 2: 47 → Wk 3: 34 → Wk 4: 32 → Wk 5: 26 → Wk 6: 15
Week 1: No. 50Week 2: No. 47Week 3: No. 34Week 4: No. 32Week 5: No. 26Week 6: No. 15

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 40points per game
  • 19.2points allowed per game
  • 53%offensive success rate
  • 40%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Conner Weigman, 1,427 yards, 15 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: Re'Shaun Sanford II, 404 yards on 75 carries, 2 TD
  • Receiving: Patrick Overmyer, 33 catches, 399 yards, 6 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs Oregon StateW 33-2098% win
2vs SouthernW 77-699% win
3at No. 11 Texas TechL 26-2845% win
4at Georgia SouthernW 42-28100% win
5vs UCFW 27-1794% win
6at Kansas StateW 35-1699% win
7vs Oklahoma State75% to win
8at No. 9 Utah37% to win
10vs Cincinnati84% to win
11at Colorado80% to win
12at West Virginia80% to win
13vs Baylor68% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big 12 in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
9Utah5-02-010.1-1.9
11Texas Tech5-02-010.3-1.7
14BYU5-03-09.5-2.5
15Houston5-12-19.2-2.8
20Arizona5-12-18.7-3.3
30Baylor4-12-07.6-4.4
45Oklahoma State4-12-07.6-4.4
46TCU2-30-25.1-6.9
47UCF3-31-26.2-5.8
54Iowa State3-31-25.8-6.2
56Kansas State3-20-26.4-5.6
61Kansas2-30-24.8-7.2
68Cincinnati4-11-16.2-5.8
81West Virginia3-30-34.6-7.4
85Colorado2-30-24.2-7.8
90Arizona State3-21-14.9-7.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.