BYU Cougars 2026: Power Ranking, Playoff Odds & Schedule

2026 at a glance

#14in the model (– from last week)
9.5-2.5projected final record
+13.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
39%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: BYU's best unit is its rush offense (No. 2 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 34). Overall, the offense ranks No. 13 and the defense No. 4, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 8, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against BYU's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 14) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, BYU would usually have won 4.6 games; it has won 5.

Postseason odds: 22% to win the Big 12, 39% to make the 12-team playoff, 7% to earn a first-round bye and 1% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 19 → Wk 2: 29 → Wk 3: 18 → Wk 4: 14 → Wk 5: 14 → Wk 6: 14

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

34.6points per game
13.4points allowed per game
51%offensive success rate
34%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Bear Bachmeier, 1,033 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: LJ Martin, 344 yards on 44 carries, 3 TD
Receiving: Legend Glasker, 19 catches, 378 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	vs Utah Tech	W 63-7	99% win
2	vs No. 20 Arizona	W 28-17	98% win
3	at Colorado State	W 41-23	100% win
5	at TCU	W 17-10	66% win
6	vs Iowa State	W 24-10	98% win
7	vs No. 2 Notre Dame	29% to win
8	at UCF	66% to win
9	vs Arizona State	89% to win
10	at No. 9 Utah	37% to win
11	vs Baylor	68% to win
12	at Kansas	72% to win
13	vs Cincinnati	85% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big 12 in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
9	Utah	5-0	2-0	10.1-1.9
11	Texas Tech	5-0	2-0	10.3-1.7
14	BYU	5-0	3-0	9.5-2.5
15	Houston	5-1	2-1	9.2-2.8
20	Arizona	5-1	2-1	8.7-3.3
30	Baylor	4-1	2-0	7.6-4.4
45	Oklahoma State	4-1	2-0	7.6-4.4
46	TCU	2-3	0-2	5.1-6.9
47	UCF	3-3	1-2	6.2-5.8
54	Iowa State	3-3	1-2	5.8-6.2
56	Kansas State	3-2	0-2	6.4-5.6
61	Kansas	2-3	0-2	4.8-7.2
68	Cincinnati	4-1	1-1	6.2-5.8
81	West Virginia	3-3	0-3	4.6-7.4
85	Colorado	2-3	0-2	4.2-7.8
90	Arizona State	3-2	1-1	4.9-7.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.