College Football Power Rankings · FBS Independents

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame is No. 2 of 138 in the model after week 6 (6-0, 0-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 11.2-0.8, with a 41% chance to win out and a 99% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Notre Dame at No. 2.

Updated · See Notre Dame in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #2in the model (– from last week)
  • 11.2-0.8projected final record
  • +24.8points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 99%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Notre Dame's best unit is its pass offense (No. 5 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 23). Overall, the offense ranks No. 4 and the defense No. 7, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 3, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Notre Dame's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 2) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Notre Dame would usually have won 5.9 games; it has won 6.

Postseason odds: 99% to make the 12-team playoff, 80% to earn a first-round bye and 20% to win the national title. 100% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 1 → Wk 2: 1 → Wk 3: 1 → Wk 4: 1 → Wk 5: 2 → Wk 6: 2
Week 1: No. 1Week 2: No. 1Week 3: No. 1Week 4: No. 1Week 5: No. 2Week 6: No. 2

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 44points per game
  • 11points allowed per game
  • 54%offensive success rate
  • 31%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: C.J. Carr, 1,378 yards, 16 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: Jonaz Walton, 409 yards on 52 carries, 2 TD
  • Receiving: Jordan Faison, 28 catches, 387 yards, 4 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs WisconsinW 41-1391% win
2vs RiceW 52-099% win
3vs Michigan StateW 27-1099% win
4at PurdueW 49-1099% win
5at North CarolinaW 37-26100% win
6vs StanfordW 58-799% win
7at No. 14 BYU71% to win
9vs Navy97% to win
10vs No. 4 Miami65% to win
11vs Boston College99% to win
12vs SMU93% to win
13at Syracuse93% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

FBS Independents in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
2Notre Dame6-00-011.2-0.8
69UConn3-30-06.5-5.5

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.