Syracuse Orange 2026: Power Ranking, Playoff Odds & Schedule

2026 at a glance

#72in the model (▲6 from last week)
4.7-7.3projected final record
−1.3points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Syracuse's best unit is its pass defense (No. 4 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 128). Overall, the offense ranks No. 69 and the defense No. 49, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 94, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Syracuse's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 72) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Syracuse would usually have won 2.5 games; it has won 2.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the ACC, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 28% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 72 → Wk 2: 82 → Wk 3: 78 → Wk 4: 82 → Wk 5: 78 → Wk 6: 72

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

32.8points per game
24points allowed per game
42%offensive success rate
42%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Steven Angeli, 730 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Tylik Hill, 404 yards on 68 carries, 1 TD
Receiving: Umari Hatcher, 37 catches, 560 yards, 6 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	vs New Hampshire	W 66-3	99% win
2	vs California	L 18-21	46% win
3	at Pittsburgh	L 13-27	0% win
5	at UConn	W 42-41	97% win
6	at Virginia	L 25-28	4% win
7	vs Louisville	34% to win
8	at North Carolina	29% to win
9	vs SMU	45% to win
10	vs Clemson	45% to win
11	at NC State	50% to win
12	at Boston College	62% to win
13	vs No. 2 Notre Dame	7% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

ACC in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
4	Miami	5-0	3-0	10.6-1.4
22	Wake Forest	5-1	3-1	9.5-2.5
32	Louisville	3-3	2-2	6.7-5.3
36	Pittsburgh	5-1	2-1	8.5-3.5
39	Duke	4-1	1-1	7.8-4.2
43	North Carolina	3-2	1-1	6.7-5.3
44	Florida State	3-3	1-2	6.1-5.9
50	SMU	4-1	2-1	7.7-4.3
52	Clemson	3-2	2-1	7.0-5.0
53	Virginia Tech	4-2	1-2	7.1-4.9
59	Virginia	4-2	2-1	6.6-5.4
72	Syracuse	2-3	0-3	4.7-7.3
79	California	3-3	2-1	5.4-6.6
84	Georgia Tech	2-3	1-1	4.1-7.9
91	NC State	3-3	1-2	5.4-6.6
110	Boston College	2-3	0-2	3.3-8.7
112	Stanford	2-4	1-3	4.2-7.8

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.