North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is No. 43 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.7-5.3, with a 1% chance to win out and a 1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #43in the model (▲16 from last week)
- 6.7-5.3projected final record
- +5.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: North Carolina's best unit is its pass defense (No. 19 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 81). Overall, the offense ranks No. 27 and the defense No. 33, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 35, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against North Carolina's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 43) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, North Carolina would usually have won 2.2 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the ACC, 1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 80% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 23.4points per game
- 19points allowed per game
- 45%offensive success rate
- 43%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Billy Edwards, 1,068 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Benjamin Hall, 276 yards on 55 carries, 0 TD
- Receiving: Jordan Shipp, 26 catches, 366 yards, 0 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs TCU | W 15-10 | 44% win |
| 2 | vs East Tennessee State | W 35-3 | 99% win |
| 3 | at Clemson | L 20-28 | 8% win |
| 5 | vs No. 2 Notre Dame | L 26-37 | 0% win |
| 6 | at Pittsburgh | W 21-17 | 67% win |
| 7 | at Duke | 41% to win | |
| 8 | vs Syracuse | 71% to win | |
| 9 | vs No. 4 Miami | 20% to win | |
| 10 | at UConn | 57% to win | |
| 11 | vs Louisville | 50% to win | |
| 12 | at Virginia | 53% to win | |
| 13 | vs NC State | 77% to win |
ACC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Miami | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 22 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 3-1 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 32 | Louisville | 3-3 | 2-2 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 36 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 39 | Duke | 4-1 | 1-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 43 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 44 | Florida State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 50 | SMU | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.7-4.3 |
| 52 | Clemson | 3-2 | 2-1 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 53 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.1-4.9 |
| 59 | Virginia | 4-2 | 2-1 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 72 | Syracuse | 2-3 | 0-3 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 79 | California | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 84 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 91 | NC State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 110 | Boston College | 2-3 | 0-2 | 3.3-8.7 |
| 112 | Stanford | 2-4 | 1-3 | 4.2-7.8 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.