College Football Power Rankings · ACC

NC State Wolfpack

NC State is No. 91 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.4-6.6, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates NC State about 6 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 54, model: No. 91). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See NC State in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #91in the model (▼27 from last week)
  • 5.4-6.6projected final record
  • −4.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: NC State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 21 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 129). Overall, the offense ranks No. 43 and the defense No. 115, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 87, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against NC State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 91) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, NC State would usually have won 2.9 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the ACC, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 46% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 71 → Wk 2: 44 → Wk 3: 62 → Wk 4: 63 → Wk 5: 64 → Wk 6: 91
Week 1: No. 71Week 2: No. 44Week 3: No. 62Week 4: No. 63Week 5: No. 64Week 6: No. 91

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 33points per game
  • 27.7points allowed per game
  • 44%offensive success rate
  • 44%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: CJ Bailey, 1,507 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing: Jayden Scott, 358 yards on 62 carries, 4 TD
  • Receiving: Keenan Jackson, 27 catches, 400 yards, 5 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at VirginiaL 8-341% win
2vs RichmondW 73-099% win
3at VanderbiltL 31-352% win
4vs App StateW 41-31100% win
5vs LouisvilleW 31-2883% win
6vs No. 22 Wake ForestL 14-382% win
8at Stanford56% to win
9vs California54% to win
10vs Duke32% to win
11vs Syracuse50% to win
12at Florida State23% to win
13at North Carolina23% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

ACC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
4Miami5-03-010.6-1.4
22Wake Forest5-13-19.5-2.5
32Louisville3-32-26.7-5.3
36Pittsburgh5-12-18.5-3.5
39Duke4-11-17.8-4.2
43North Carolina3-21-16.7-5.3
44Florida State3-31-26.1-5.9
50SMU4-12-17.7-4.3
52Clemson3-22-17.0-5.0
53Virginia Tech4-21-27.1-4.9
59Virginia4-22-16.6-5.4
72Syracuse2-30-34.7-7.3
79California3-32-15.4-6.6
84Georgia Tech2-31-14.1-7.9
91NC State3-31-25.4-6.6
110Boston College2-30-23.3-8.7
112Stanford2-41-34.2-7.8

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.