Miami Hurricanes
Miami is No. 4 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-0, 3-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 10.6-1.4, with a 18% chance to win out and a 90% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Miami at No. 3.
2026 at a glance
- #4in the model (▲1 from last week)
- 10.6-1.4projected final record
- +21.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 90%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Miami's best unit is its pass offense (No. 1 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 54). Overall, the offense ranks No. 1 and the defense No. 37, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 10, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Miami's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 4) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Miami would usually have won 4.9 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 73% to win the ACC, 90% to make the 12-team playoff, 49% to earn a first-round bye and 11% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 49.6points per game
- 9.8points allowed per game
- 57%offensive success rate
- 37%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Darian Mensah, 1,438 yards, 15 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: Mark Fletcher Jr., 307 yards on 52 carries, 5 TD
- Receiving: Malachi Toney, 39 catches, 604 yards, 6 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Stanford | W 45-6 | 98% win |
| 2 | vs Florida A&M | W 77-7 | 99% win |
| 3 | at No. 22 Wake Forest | W 33-20 | 93% win |
| 4 | vs Central Michigan | W 52-3 | 99% win |
| 5 | at Clemson | W 41-13 | 96% win |
| 7 | vs Florida State | 88% to win | |
| 8 | vs Pittsburgh | 85% to win | |
| 9 | at North Carolina | 80% to win | |
| 10 | at No. 2 Notre Dame | 35% to win | |
| 11 | vs Duke | 87% to win | |
| 12 | vs Virginia Tech | 90% to win | |
| 13 | vs Boston College | 98% to win |
ACC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Miami | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 22 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 3-1 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 32 | Louisville | 3-3 | 2-2 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 36 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 39 | Duke | 4-1 | 1-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 43 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 44 | Florida State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 50 | SMU | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.7-4.3 |
| 52 | Clemson | 3-2 | 2-1 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 53 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.1-4.9 |
| 59 | Virginia | 4-2 | 2-1 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 72 | Syracuse | 2-3 | 0-3 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 79 | California | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 84 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 91 | NC State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 110 | Boston College | 2-3 | 0-2 | 3.3-8.7 |
| 112 | Stanford | 2-4 | 1-3 | 4.2-7.8 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.