Central Michigan Chippewas

Central Michigan is No. 119 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.1-5.9, with a 2% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Central Michigan in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #119in the model (▼4 from last week)
  • 6.1-5.9projected final record
  • −10.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Central Michigan's best unit is its rush offense (No. 23 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 138). Overall, the offense ranks No. 109 and the defense No. 100, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 83, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Central Michigan's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 119) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Central Michigan would usually have won 2.9 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 2% to win the Mid-American, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 67% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 117 → Wk 2: 131 → Wk 3: 129 → Wk 4: 123 → Wk 5: 115 → Wk 6: 119
Week 1: No. 117Week 2: No. 131Week 3: No. 129Week 4: No. 123Week 5: No. 115Week 6: No. 119

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 17points per game
  • 26.3points allowed per game
  • 39%offensive success rate
  • 48%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Angel H Flores, 313 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing: Angel H Flores, 501 yards on 97 carries, 4 TD
  • Receiving: Langston Lewis, 10 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at New MexicoL 7-381% win
2vs ColgateW 13-1093% win
3vs WyomingW 24-1094% win
4at No. 4 MiamiL 3-521% win
5vs AkronW 41-1797% win
6at OhioL 14-314% win
7vs Western Michigan32% to win
8vs Miami (OH)44% to win
10vs Eastern Michigan49% to win
11vs Sacramento State85% to win
12at Buffalo45% to win
13at Ball State54% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Mid-American in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
65Western Michigan4-22-08.3-3.7
75Toledo4-21-18.0-4.0
89Ohio4-22-08.1-3.9
98Miami (OH)3-31-16.5-5.5
99Massachusetts4-21-27.4-4.6
115Eastern Michigan4-33-06.0-6.0
122Buffalo3-31-16.0-6.0
125Bowling Green2-42-04.4-7.6
126Kent State2-41-24.8-7.2
131Ball State1-50-23.5-8.5
134Akron1-50-22.4-9.6
138Sacramento State1-50-32.1-9.9

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.