Buffalo Bulls
Buffalo is No. 122 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 6.0-6.0, with a 3% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #122in the model (▲9 from last week)
- 6.0-6.0projected final record
- −11.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Buffalo's best unit is its run defense (No. 75 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 117). Overall, the offense ranks No. 110 and the defense No. 111, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 100, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Buffalo's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 122) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Buffalo would usually have won 3 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Mid-American, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 65% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 20.8points per game
- 26.8points allowed per game
- 35%offensive success rate
- 37%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jason Wright, 726 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing: Messiah Burch, 489 yards on 90 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Chance Morrow, 34 catches, 417 yards, 6 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UAlbany | W 21-17 | 94% win |
| 2 | at Florida International | L 20-33 | 0% win |
| 3 | at Penn State | L 13-55 | 1% win |
| 4 | vs Robert Morris | W 31-28 | 90% win |
| 5 | vs Western Michigan | L 17-20 | 34% win |
| 6 | at Toledo | W 23-8 | 79% win |
| 7 | vs Massachusetts | 43% to win | |
| 8 | vs Bowling Green | 59% to win | |
| 10 | at Miami (OH) | 30% to win | |
| 11 | at Ball State | 52% to win | |
| 12 | vs Central Michigan | 55% to win | |
| 13 | at Akron | 61% to win |
Mid-American in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 75 | Toledo | 4-2 | 1-1 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 89 | Ohio | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 98 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.5-5.5 |
| 99 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 115 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 3-0 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 119 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 122 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 125 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 2-0 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 126 | Kent State | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 131 | Ball State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.5-8.5 |
| 134 | Akron | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.4-9.6 |
| 138 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2.1-9.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.