Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is No. 38 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 0-3 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.0-5.0, with a 10% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #38in the model (▼9 from last week)
- 7.0-5.0projected final record
- +6.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Penn State's best unit is its pass defense (No. 10 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 119). Overall, the offense ranks No. 93 and the defense No. 29, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 81, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Penn State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 38) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Penn State would usually have won 3.7 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the Big Ten, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 88% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 30.5points per game
- 18.5points allowed per game
- 40%offensive success rate
- 40%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Rocco Becht, 1,397 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing: James Peoples, 232 yards on 52 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Chase Sowell, 23 catches, 359 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Marshall | W 45-0 | 100% win |
| 2 | at Temple | W 27-9 | 97% win |
| 3 | vs Buffalo | W 55-13 | 100% win |
| 4 | vs Wisconsin | L 20-24 | 53% win |
| 5 | at No. 21 Northwestern | L 13-34 | 3% win |
| 6 | vs No. 24 USC | L 23-31 | 15% win |
| 7 | at Michigan | 46% to win | |
| 9 | vs Purdue | 63% to win | |
| 10 | at Washington | 61% to win | |
| 11 | vs Minnesota | 76% to win | |
| 12 | vs Rutgers | 86% to win | |
| 13 | at Maryland | 64% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.