Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is No. 5 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 3-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 9.2-2.8, with a 14% chance to win out and a 80% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Ohio State at No. 4.
2026 at a glance
- #5in the model (▼2 from last week)
- 9.2-2.8projected final record
- +21.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 80%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Ohio State's best unit is its pass defense (No. 2 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 63). Overall, the offense ranks No. 19 and the defense No. 10, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 21, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Ohio State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 5) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Ohio State would usually have won 5.8 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 35% to win the Big Ten, 80% to make the 12-team playoff, 32% to earn a first-round bye and 8% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 42.7points per game
- 13.2points allowed per game
- 53%offensive success rate
- 35%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Julian Sayin, 1,772 yards, 17 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing: Bo Jackson, 460 yards on 89 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Jeremiah Smith, 48 catches, 916 yards, 11 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Ball State | W 56-3 | 98% win |
| 2 | at No. 7 Texas | L 23-24 | 86% win |
| 3 | vs Kent State | W 59-3 | 99% win |
| 4 | vs Illinois | W 42-19 | 96% win |
| 5 | at Iowa | W 31-14 | >99% win |
| 6 | vs Maryland | W 45-16 | 99% win |
| 7 | at No. 6 Indiana | 52% to win | |
| 9 | at No. 24 USC | 70% to win | |
| 10 | vs No. 16 Oregon | 76% to win | |
| 11 | vs No. 21 Northwestern | 80% to win | |
| 12 | at No. 13 Nebraska | 63% to win | |
| 13 | vs Michigan | 88% to win |
Big Ten in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 3-0 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.6-1.4 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.9-3.1 |
| 16 | Oregon | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7.5-4.5 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 24 | USC | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 35 | Iowa | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 38 | Penn State | 3-3 | 0-3 | 7.0-5.0 |
| 41 | Michigan | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 62 | Illinois | 3-3 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.1-7.9 |
| 71 | Washington | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 76 | Maryland | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 2-1 | 5.3-6.7 |
| 108 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2.3-9.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.