Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is No. 48 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.7-6.3, with a 1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Purdue in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #48in the model (▲25 from last week)
  • 5.7-6.3projected final record
  • +3.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • <1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Purdue's best unit is its pass offense (No. 11 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 104). Overall, the offense ranks No. 21 and the defense No. 103, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 52, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Purdue's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 48) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Purdue would usually have won 3.6 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: <1% to win the Big Ten, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 55% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 84 → Wk 2: 87 → Wk 3: 85 → Wk 4: 86 → Wk 5: 73 → Wk 6: 48
Week 1: No. 84Week 2: No. 87Week 3: No. 85Week 4: No. 86Week 5: No. 73Week 6: No. 48

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 32.2points per game
  • 31.3points allowed per game
  • 47%offensive success rate
  • 46%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Ryan Browne, 1,549 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: Fame Ijeboi, 549 yards on 117 carries, 9 TD
  • Receiving: Asaad Waseem, 29 catches, 472 yards, 1 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs Indiana StateW 44-1999% win
2vs No. 22 Wake ForestL 36-3851% win
3at No. 10 UCLAL 38-5213% win
4vs No. 2 Notre DameL 10-491% win
5at IllinoisW 24-1795% win
6vs MinnesotaW 41-13>99% win
7vs Washington68% to win
9at Penn State37% to win
10vs Maryland70% to win
11at Iowa34% to win
12vs Wisconsin44% to win
13at No. 6 Indiana15% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big Ten in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
5Ohio State5-13-09.2-2.8
6Indiana6-03-010.6-1.4
10UCLA5-03-010.6-1.4
13Nebraska5-12-18.9-3.1
16Oregon3-21-17.5-4.5
21Northwestern4-11-18.3-3.7
24USC6-13-18.2-3.8
28Wisconsin4-12-08.3-3.7
35Iowa5-12-18.3-3.7
38Penn State3-30-37.0-5.0
41Michigan3-20-26.0-6.0
62Illinois3-31-24.8-7.2
70Michigan State2-40-34.1-7.9
71Washington3-30-34.6-7.4
76Maryland2-40-34.4-7.6
77Minnesota4-22-15.3-6.7
108Rutgers1-40-22.3-9.7

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.