College Football Power Rankings · SEC

Texas Longhorns

Texas is No. 7 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.7-3.3, with a 7% chance to win out and a 69% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Texas at No. 7.

Updated · See Texas in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #7in the model (▼1 from last week)
  • 8.7-3.3projected final record
  • +16.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 69%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Texas's best unit is its run defense (No. 13 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 84). Overall, the offense ranks No. 51 and the defense No. 12, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 9, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Texas's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 7) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Texas would usually have won 3.2 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 5% to win the SEC, 69% to make the 12-team playoff, 18% to earn a first-round bye and 4% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 7 → Wk 2: 10 → Wk 3: 7 → Wk 4: 7 → Wk 5: 6 → Wk 6: 7
Week 1: No. 7Week 2: No. 10Week 3: No. 7Week 4: No. 7Week 5: No. 6Week 6: No. 7

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 31.4points per game
  • 16points allowed per game
  • 43%offensive success rate
  • 34%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Arch Manning, 1,125 yards, 10 TD, 5 INT
  • Rushing: Daylan Smothers, 237 yards on 53 carries, 2 TD
  • Receiving: Cam Coleman, 16 catches, 304 yards, 5 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs Texas StateW 59-794% win
2vs No. 5 Ohio StateW 24-2314% win
3vs UTSAW 30-696% win
4at No. 17 TennesseeW 20-1779% win
6vs OklahomaL 24-2735% win
7vs Florida78% to win
8vs No. 18 Ole Miss70% to win
9vs No. 19 Mississippi State71% to win
10at No. 12 Missouri49% to win
11at No. 8 LSU44% to win
12vs Arkansas93% to win
13at Texas A&M65% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

SEC in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
1Alabama5-13-110.2-1.8
3Georgia6-04-010.9-1.1
7Texas4-11-18.7-3.3
8LSU4-21-27.8-4.2
12Missouri5-12-18.5-3.5
17Tennessee5-12-18.1-3.9
18Ole Miss4-12-17.8-4.2
19Mississippi State4-12-18.1-3.9
26Oklahoma3-21-16.4-5.6
27Kentucky5-13-18.1-3.9
31Texas A&M3-31-35.7-6.3
33South Carolina3-31-35.9-6.1
37Florida4-22-26.6-5.4
42Auburn3-21-25.8-6.2
82Vanderbilt3-30-34.4-7.6
88Arkansas2-40-33.3-8.7

Forty Acres Report

Texas gets its own section in every weekly power rankings post. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.