I rank all 138 FBS teams after every week and pick every game before kickoff. Every team and every pick is on the live power rankings page.
Updated Nov. 13: the rankings now weigh what a team has earned (wins against its schedule) as well as how good it is, the way the playoff committee ranks, and this post uses the new order. The picks and odds didn't change. What changed and why.
Notre Dame is No. 1, up from No. 3, and it got there the old-fashioned way: it beat Miami 31-24, and that head-to-head win is what puts it on top. Don't read much into the order, though: it's a five-way near-tie, and the top spot could change hands any Saturday.
The rankings work a little differently this week. They now weigh what a team has earned as well as how good it is, the way the playoff committee ranks, and that's a big part of why a 6-3 LSU sits at No. 13 instead of fourth.
The game I care about is Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Texas goes to LSU with a 31% chance, and I'm less hopeful than Vegas: I have LSU by 7.8, and the line says 4.
Week 11 power rankings: the top 25
Rank weighs what a team has earned (60%: wins against its schedule) and how good it is (40%: my power rating, who would be favored on a neutral field). The AP poll and the betting market's ranking are there for comparison.
| Rank (prev.) | Team | Record | This week (win %) | AP poll | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (3) | Notre Dame | 8-1 | vs. Boston College (96%) | 3 | 1 |
| 2 (1) | Miami | 8-1 | vs. Duke (83%) | 5 | 5 |
| 3 (2) | Utah | 9-0 | at No. 24 Arizona (66%) | 2 | 13 |
| 4 (4) | Georgia | 8-1 | vs. Missouri (84%) | 1 | 4 |
| 5 (5) | Alabama | 7-2 | at Vanderbilt (94%) | 7 | 8 |
| 6 (10) | UCLA | 9-0 | vs. Illinois (83%) | 4 | 21 |
| 7 (12) | Wake Forest | 8-1 | at SMU (70%) | 11 | 31 |
| 8 (7) | Texas | 7-2 | at No. 13 LSU (31%) | 8 | 9 |
| 9 (11) | Indiana | 8-1 | vs. No. 22 USC (67%) | 6 | 3 |
| 10 (18) | Tennessee | 7-2 | at Texas A&M (63%) | 9 | 19 |
| 11 (6) | Kentucky | 7-2 | vs. Florida (65%) | 13 | 43 |
| 12 (8) | Ole Miss | 6-3 | at Oklahoma (57%) | 19 | 12 |
| 13 (9) | LSU | 6-3 | vs. No. 8 Texas (69%) | 24 | 10 |
| 14 (13) | BYU | 7-2 | vs. Baylor (58%) | 12 | 17 |
| 15 (21) | Oregon | 6-3 | vs. Michigan (79%) | 18 | 6 |
| 16 (15) | Texas Tech | 8-1 | at No. 25 Oklahoma State (30%) | 10 | 11 |
| 17 (16) | Houston | 7-2 | at Colorado (77%) | 14 | 24 |
| 18 (17) | Boise State | 8-1 | vs. Oregon State (85%) | 17 | 22 |
| 19 (14) | Ohio State | 6-3 | vs. Northwestern (74%) | 21 | 2 |
| 20 (20) | Iowa | 7-2 | vs. Purdue (91%) | 16 | 15 |
| 21 (23) | Liberty | 8-1 | vs. Middle Tennessee (96%) | NR | 39 |
| 22 (22) | USC | 7-2 | at No. 9 Indiana (33%) | 15 | 7 |
| 23 (28) | New Mexico | 8-1 | vs. UNLV (90%) | 23 | 30 |
| 24 (26) | Arizona | 7-2 | vs. No. 3 Utah (34%) | 22 | 36 |
| 25 (35) | Oklahoma State | 6-3 | vs. No. 16 Texas Tech (70%) | NR | 28 |
Where I part ways with Vegas: I rate Wake Forest 12 points better than the betting market does (No. 7 here, No. 31 in Vegas), Ohio State 10 points worse (No. 19 here, No. 2 there) and Indiana 9 points worse (No. 9 here, No. 3 there). Those are my boldest calls.
The top five are separated by less than a point, so No. 1 is up for grabs every week. Ratings, projections and playoff odds for every team are on the live page.
Head-to-head: Notre Dame (No. 1) is above Miami (No. 2) because it beat Miami 31-24 at home in week 10; Tennessee (No. 10) is above Kentucky (No. 11) because it beat Kentucky 34-6 at home in week 10; Kentucky (No. 11) is above LSU (No. 13) because it beat LSU 35-34 at home in week 6; Ole Miss (No. 12) is above LSU (No. 13) because it beat LSU 32-24 at home in week 3; Texas Tech (No. 16) is above Houston (No. 17) because it beat Houston 28-26 at home in week 3; Ohio State (No. 19) is above Iowa (No. 20) because it beat Iowa 31-14 on the road in week 5.
Game of the week: Texas at LSU pick and preview
The pick: LSU by 7.8 (69%). Vegas has LSU by 4. Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
This one comes down to whether Texas can throw. LSU's pass defense ranks fifth in the country by my numbers, and Texas's passing offense ranks 76th. Arch Manning has 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, but Texas allows a sack on 9.7% of dropbacks, 130th of 138, and now plays without left tackle Trevor Goosby, who will miss the rest of the season. That's a rough setup against Princewill Umanmielen and his 9 sacks.
Texas's way to win is its defense. Its run defense ranks third, and LSU's run game ranks 39th, so the Longhorns can make Sam Leavitt beat them. The problem is that he can: he's 20th of 150 quarterbacks in efficiency, and Jackson Harris has 800 receiving yards.
The stakes don't get much bigger in November. A win puts Texas's playoff odds at 92%; a loss drops them to 60%. LSU swings from 86% to 46%. Texas leads the series 8-7-1, but the last meeting went to LSU, 45-38 in Austin in 2019.
Forty Acres Report: Texas vs. LSU pick and preview
Full disclosure: I went to UT and marched in the Longhorn Band, so Texas gets its own section every week. I'm biased; the numbers aren't.
The pick: LSU by 7.8; Texas has a 31% chance. It's also the game of the week, so the full preview is above.
I'll say it as a fan: this team's record is better than its play. Based on how Texas has played, it would usually be about 6-3, not 7-2. It's No. 8 in my rankings, right where the AP has it, and once you adjust for the defenses it has faced, the offense has been steady. Manning went 28 of 38 for 297 yards and 3 touchdowns in Columbia.
"Right when people want to count us out, we just refuse to go away," Steve Sarkisian said after that game. Saturday is the place to prove it, but it isn't a must-win: if Texas finishes 9-3, it still makes the field 85% of the time. 8-4 is where it gets ugly, at 31%. Overall, Texas is at 70% to make the playoff and 3% to win the SEC (the full Texas page). And this week, Texas fans should root for Illinois over UCLA.
LSU: where I disagree with the AP poll
The AP has LSU at No. 24. I have the Tigers at No. 13, and until this week's change to how I rank teams, I had them fourth. So this is partly an argument with myself.
Here's the case for LSU. Its defense is the best in the country by my numbers, No. 1 of 138 in efficiency adjusted for opponents, with the fifth-ranked pass defense. Its three losses came by a combined 27 points, and one was 35-34 at Kentucky. Based on how it has played, LSU would usually be about 7-2, not 6-3. On my power rating alone, the number that picks the games, it's still fourth.
The voters have a point, though. By résumé, which grades wins against what a playoff-caliber team would do with the same schedule, LSU ranks 27th, and the 31-13 home loss to Alabama wasn't close. The ranking now gives that record more weight than the play, which is why LSU is 13th and not higher.
We'll find out fast. I have LSU by 7.8 against Texas, and then comes the trip to No. 10 Tennessee, where I give it a 61% chance. If LSU wins out, it makes the playoff 99% of the time.
Around the country
Oklahoma made the biggest jump of the week, up 14 spots to No. 36 after a 23-7 win at Florida, and Oklahoma State climbed 10 to No. 25 after winning 66-28 at Kansas State. Florida went the other way, down 14 to No. 39, and Missouri fell 12 to No. 31 after losing 34-20 to Texas, which I'll take.
And I'm well below the market on Ohio State: I have the Buckeyes 19th, and Vegas's numbers have them 2nd.
Playoff picture
The 12 teams most likely to make the field, then the next four, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (how). Every contender's odds for each seed, and the projected bracket, are on the playoff bracket projection.
| Team | Projected | Conf. title | Playoff | National title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 10.7-1.3 | n/a | 99% | 16% |
| Alabama | 9.8-2.2 | 40% | 98% | 14% |
| Georgia | 10.6-1.4 | 52% | 97% | 17% |
| Miami | 10.7-1.3 | 54% | 95% | 12% |
| Utah | 11.3-0.7 | 58% | 93% | 9% |
| UCLA | 11.3-0.7 | 48% | 78% | 4% |
| LSU | 8.2-3.8 | 2% | 73% | 9% |
| Wake Forest | 10.4-1.6 | 40% | 71% | 6% |
| Texas | 8.8-3.2 | 3% | 70% | 3% |
| Boise State | 9.8-1.2* | 63% | 57% | 1% |
| Indiana | 10.3-1.7 | 30% | 50% | 2% |
| Tennessee | 8.9-3.1 | 3% | 43% | 2% |
| First four out | ||||
| Oregon | 8.4-3.6 | 7% | 31% | 1% |
| Iowa | 9.3-2.7 | 9% | 29% | 1% |
| Houston | 9.1-2.9 | 7% | 26% | 1% |
| BYU | 9.0-3.0 | 5% | 22% | 1% |
The Group of 6 bid: the top team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt gets in, champion or not. Leading that race: Boise State (57%), Liberty (21%), New Mexico (19%).
* Boise State has fewer than 12 games in my data source, so the projection covers only those.
Week 11 picks for the other big games
Which of these matter most for the playoff race? The games to watch page ranks every game this week by how much its result moves the playoff odds.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | My pick | Win % | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 7 Wake Forest at SMU | Sat noon, ESPN | Wake Forest by 8.3 | 70% | SMU by 1.5 |
| Duke at No. 2 Miami | Sat noon, ABC | Miami by 15.0 | 83% | Miami by 13.5 |
| No. 22 USC at No. 9 Indiana | Sat 3:30 p.m., CBS | Indiana by 6.9 | 67% | Indiana by 8.5 |
| Boston College at No. 1 Notre Dame | Sat 3:30 p.m., NBC | Notre Dame by 28.6 | 96% | Notre Dame by 29.5 |
| No. 3 Utah at No. 24 Arizona | Sat 7:30 p.m., Fox | Utah by 6.5 | 66% | Utah by 2.5 |
| No. 16 Texas Tech at No. 25 Oklahoma State | Sat 9:30 p.m., ESPN | Oklahoma State by 8.5 | 70% | Oklahoma State by 3.5 |
Injuries I'm tracking
Starting quarterback changes move my ratings (how); other injuries don't, so the Vegas line usually knows more about those.
| Team | Player | The news | In my numbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | WR Malachi Toney | Receiver Malachi Toney had ankle surgery after a practice injury before the Notre Dame game. Mario Cristobal said he could return in as little as four weeks, and CBS Sports reports a four to six week absence, which would likely cover the rest of the regular season. (CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports) | Not priced |
| UCLA | QB Nico Iamaleava | Starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is out for the season with a knee injury from the Oregon game, and Ty Dieffenbach, who took over in that game's second half, is expected to start. (ESPN) | +1.3 points |
| Texas | OT Trevor Goosby | Left tackle Trevor Goosby will miss the rest of the season with the left knee injury he suffered in the first quarter of the Ole Miss win, according to ESPN's sources. Andre Cojoe took over at left tackle. (On3, The Daily Texan) | Not priced |
| Texas | RB Hollywood Smothers | Running back Hollywood Smothers is out for the season with a torn MCL from the Oct. 31 Mississippi State game, according to On3 and 247Sports reporting. (Yahoo Sports, Austin American-Statesman) | Not priced |
| Tennessee | EDGE Tyree Weathersby | Edge rusher Tyree Weathersby, Tennessee's sack leader with seven, is out for the season with a knee injury from the Nov. 7 Kentucky win, according to On3 reporting. (On3, WJHL) | Not priced |
| Ole Miss | RB Kewan Lacy | Leading rusher Kewan Lacy, who dislocated his left shoulder against Texas on Oct. 24, will miss his third straight game, Pete Golding said Nov. 9 before the Oklahoma game. (Sports Illustrated, HottyToddy.com) | Not priced |
| Oregon | QB Dante Moore | Starting quarterback Dante Moore remains in the concussion protocol from the Sept. 26 USC game, and Dan Lanning said Oct. 26 he does not expect him back this season. Dylan Raiola, who has started since the injury, is expected to keep starting. (ESPN, AP) | +0.7 points |
| Michigan | QB Bryce Underwood | Bryce Underwood lost the starting job in October, and On3 reports Tommy Carr is expected to start against Oregon. Kyle Whittingham has called the starter to be determined, and ESPN reports Underwood will still play in some packages. (On3, ESPN) | +0.3 points |
| Texas Tech | QB Will Hammond | Joey McGuire benched Will Hammond after the loss at Cincinnati, and Thomas Castellanos has started since, beating Arizona and then West Virginia with 362 passing yards and five touchdowns. Castellanos is expected to start at Oklahoma State. (ESPN, KCBD, Texas Tech Athletics) | −0.6 points |
| Oregon State | QB Braden Atkinson | Starting quarterback Braden Atkinson hurt his hand in the loss to Texas State and is listed doubtful for Boise State; ESPN reports he is not expected to play. Oregon State has not named his replacement. (ESPN, Yahoo Sports) | −4.4 points |
| Ohio State | QB Julian Sayin | Starting quarterback Julian Sayin hurt his throwing arm in the Oct. 17 Indiana game and has not played since; Ryan Day has called him out indefinitely and said his return is not weeks away. Luke Fahey has started the losses at USC and Oregon and is expected to keep starting. (ESPN, Eleven Warriors, Yahoo Sports, ESPN (2)) | −3.4 points |
| Northwestern | QB Aidan Chiles | Starting quarterback Aidan Chiles missed the Iowa game with an upper-body injury and is listed out on the Big Ten availability report for Ohio State. ESPN reports David Braun has picked Nicco Marchiol, who threw for 181 yards against Iowa, to start. (Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports (2), The Daily Northwestern) | −5.0 points |
| Iowa | RB Kamari Moulton | Running back Kamari Moulton is out for the season with an upper-body injury, Kirk Ferentz said. (Hawk Central) | Not priced |
Last week's report card
I picked 42 of 62 winners in week 10 (68%). Vegas favorites went 43 of 62. Best call: I took Georgia State (56%) when Vegas favored the other side, and Georgia State won by 16. Worst miss: I gave Arkansas State an 83% chance, and UL Monroe won by 2. Every result is in the track record.
How this is made
Each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, recruiting, roster talent and coaching changes), and every game moves it toward what actually happened: the final margin (blowouts count with diminishing returns) and play-by-play efficiency (EPA per play and success rate), with opponent strength built in and recent games counting a little more. The preseason rating fades out by week 10, so from then on the rankings come only from this season's games. Tested on 2018 through 2025 (2020 skipped) without peeking ahead, from week 4 on it missed final margins by 12.5 points on average and picked 73.0% of winners; the Vegas closing line missed by 12.1 and picked 72.8%. That rating makes the picks and the odds.
The ranking: the order weighs what a team has earned (60%: wins above what a playoff-caliber team would get against the same schedule) and how good it is (40%: the power rating). On 2022 through 2025, that order matched the playoff committee's rankings twice as closely as the power rating alone (an average miss of 3.0 spots instead of 6.6), and the higher-ranked team won 69% of next week's games between top-40 teams, against 67% for the power rating alone. When two teams are within 2 points and the lower one won their game, it moves ahead, the way the committee uses head-to-head.
Injuries: a confirmed starting quarterback absence moves a team's rating by half the gap between the starter and his replacement, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025. Other injuries are listed but not priced.
Disagreeing with Vegas: when my numbers and the line have differed by 6 or more points, the line has been closer to the final margin 60% of the time (780 games). When we pick different winners, I've been right 51% of the time, about a coin flip.
Playoff odds: each of 10,000 simulations plays out the season, then picks the field roughly the way the committee does: rating, minus about 5 points per loss, plus schedule strength and a bump for conference champions. Nobody can model the committee exactly, so treat the odds for teams with tough schedules as rough.
Every number here is computed from play-by-play and box scores (via CollegeFootballData.com) and checked before it's used. I built the model and the automation with Claude as a pair programmer, and Claude helps draft the weekly write-up from the numbers; the calls and opinions are mine. Next week's edition grades these picks, misses included.