College football · Playoff

College Football Playoff Bracket Projection 2026

Week 11 edition · Updated · By Jay Egger

Utah tops the projected bracket, with Notre Dame, Georgia and Miami also earning byes. It lands at No. 1 in 28% of my simulations, more than anyone. Georgia has the best chance to win it all (17%). Boise State holds the last spot; Indiana is the first team out.

The playoff committee's latest top four is Georgia, Utah, Alabama and UCLA. We agree on Georgia and Utah; my projection gives the other byes to Notre Dame and Miami.

Every number here comes from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, the conference title games and the playoff itself. Also: this week's games ranked by playoff stakes · full power rankings.

The projected bracket

The 12 teams most likely to make the field, each placed where it usually lands when it gets in. Seeds 1-4 get byes; seeds 5-8 host the first round. The percentage next to each team is its chance to make the field at all; the table below has its odds for every seed and round.

First round
8Texas89% in
9Tennessee56% in
Quarterfinal
1Utah97% in
·Texas or Tennessee
First round
5Alabama99% in
12Boise State68% in
Quarterfinal
4Miami97% in
·Alabama or Boise State
First round
7Wake Forest81% in
10LSU56% in
Quarterfinal
2Notre Dame99% in
·Wake Forest or LSU
First round
6UCLA84% in
11Oregon38% in
Quarterfinal
3Georgia99% in
·UCLA or Oregon

Quarterfinal winners meet in the semifinals: the top two blocks above play each other, and so do the bottom two. In the simulations the committee is approximated (rating, losses, schedule strength and a bump for conference champions), so treat seeds near the cut line as rough.

Seed odds for every contender

How often each team lands on each seed, and how far it goes. Darker means likelier. Teams with at least a 1% chance to make the field, 27 in all.

TeamCommitteePlayoff123456789101112QFSemisFinalTitle
Notre Dame 8-1599%11%19%22%19%11%7%5%3%2%1%1%<1%88%53%29%16%
Georgia 8-1199%23%16%12%11%10%9%6%5%3%2%1%<1%86%52%30%17%
Alabama 7-2399%13%13%11%11%13%13%10%7%4%2%1%<1%81%46%26%14%
Miami 8-1797%16%17%14%12%10%8%7%5%4%2%2%<1%82%46%25%12%
Utah 9-0297%28%19%14%11%8%5%4%3%2%2%1%<1%86%45%21%10%
Texas 7-2689%1%3%5%9%12%15%13%11%8%6%4%1%52%22%9%4%
UCLA 9-0484%5%8%10%11%12%9%8%7%6%5%3%1%59%26%11%4%
Wake Forest 8-11381%2%5%8%9%8%8%8%9%8%7%6%2%56%28%14%7%
Boise State 8-12468%<1%<1%1%2%3%5%7%8%9%33%22%7%2%1%
LSU 6-32156%<1%<1%<1%1%3%5%8%10%10%9%7%3%37%20%11%6%
Tennessee 7-2856%<1%1%1%1%3%5%7%9%10%9%8%3%29%11%5%2%
Oregon 6-31638%<1%<1%1%2%3%4%5%6%8%7%3%18%7%3%1%
Indiana 8-1934%<1%1%2%3%4%4%4%4%4%6%3%15%5%2%1%
Iowa 7-21533%<1%<1%1%2%2%3%4%5%6%7%3%18%7%3%2%
BYU 7-21028%<1%<1%1%1%2%2%3%4%5%6%2%12%5%2%1%
Liberty 8-1NR26%<1%<1%1%2%3%20%9%4%1%1%
Texas Tech 8-11222%<1%<1%1%1%2%2%2%3%3%5%4%8%3%1%<1%
Louisville 6-3NR20%<1%<1%<1%1%1%2%3%4%5%3%10%4%2%1%
Ole Miss 6-31918%<1%<1%1%1%2%4%4%5%2%8%3%1%1%
Ohio State 6-32018%<1%<1%1%1%2%2%3%4%4%2%8%3%2%1%
Houston 7-21410%<1%<1%<1%1%2%2%3%1%4%2%1%<1%
Kentucky 7-2119%<1%<1%1%1%2%2%2%1%4%1%1%<1%
Oklahoma State 6-3256%<1%<1%1%1%3%2%3%2%1%<1%
New Mexico 8-1NR6%<1%<1%<1%5%2%1%<1%<1%
USC 7-2182%<1%<1%<1%1%<1%1%<1%<1%<1%
Arizona 7-2232%<1%<1%<1%1%<1%1%<1%<1%<1%
Louisiana Tech 7-2NR2%2%<1%<1%

Committee is the playoff selection committee's latest ranking (NR: not in its top 25). Columns 1-12 are my seed odds. QF is the chance to reach the quarterfinals (a bye or a first-round win), then the semifinals, the final and the title. A team's seed odds add up to its playoff odds.

The bubble

Last in

First out

Each team page shows what that team needs: its playoff odds by final record and the other games its fans should root for.

How this is made

Each simulation plays out the rest of the regular season from my current ratings, plays the conference title games, then picks the field the way the 2026 format works: the four Power 4 champions, the best team from the other six conferences, Notre Dame if it's in the top 12, and the highest-rated teams after that. Teams are seeded by a stand-in for the committee: rating, minus about 5 points per loss, plus schedule strength and a bump for conference champions. Then the bracket is played. Nobody can model the committee exactly, so seeds are less certain than who gets in. The method and the graded track record of every pick are on the rankings page. I built the model and this page with Claude as a pair programmer; the choices about what to measure are mine.