Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State is No. 45 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 7.6-4.4, with a 1% chance to win out and a 2% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Oklahoma State at No. 18.
2026 at a glance
- #45in the model (▲12 from last week)
- 7.6-4.4projected final record
- +4.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 2%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Oklahoma State's best unit is its run defense (No. 32 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 89). Overall, the offense ranks No. 52 and the defense No. 43, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 28, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Oklahoma State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 45) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Oklahoma State would usually have won 3.4 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 2% to win the Big 12, 2% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 94% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 38.2points per game
- 21.4points allowed per game
- 49%offensive success rate
- 39%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Drew Mestemaker, 1,575 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Caleb Hawkins, 524 yards on 106 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Wyatt Young, 27 catches, 462 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Tulsa | L 10-24 | <1% win |
| 2 | vs No. 16 Oregon | W 39-31 | 68% win |
| 3 | vs Murray State | W 59-0 | 99% win |
| 4 | at West Virginia | W 41-24 | 88% win |
| 6 | vs UCF | W 42-28 | 88% win |
| 7 | at No. 15 Houston | 25% to win | |
| 8 | vs Colorado | 75% to win | |
| 9 | at Iowa State | 48% to win | |
| 10 | at Kansas State | 50% to win | |
| 11 | vs No. 11 Texas Tech | 33% to win | |
| 12 | at Arizona State | 65% to win | |
| 13 | vs Kansas | 65% to win |
Big 12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Utah | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.1-1.9 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.3-1.7 |
| 14 | BYU | 5-0 | 3-0 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 15 | Houston | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 20 | Arizona | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 45 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 46 | TCU | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 47 | UCF | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 54 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 61 | Kansas | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 68 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 1-1 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 81 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 85 | Colorado | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.2-7.8 |
| 90 | Arizona State | 3-2 | 1-1 | 4.9-7.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.