Kansas State Wildcats: Playoff Odds & Schedule 2026

2026 at a glance

#56in the model (▼14 from last week)
6.4-5.6projected final record
+2.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
<1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Kansas State's best unit is its rush offense (No. 24 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 106). Overall, the offense ranks No. 38 and the defense No. 105, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 66, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Kansas State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 56) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Kansas State would usually have won 3.1 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: <1% to win the Big 12, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 73% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 42 → Wk 2: 41 → Wk 3: 29 → Wk 4: 35 → Wk 5: 42 → Wk 6: 56

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

35.6points per game
19.2points allowed per game
48%offensive success rate
38%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Avery Johnson, 1,092 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Avery Johnson, 330 yards on 39 carries, 3 TD
Receiving: Jaron Tibbs, 20 catches, 201 yards, 2 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	vs Nicholls	W 71-3	99% win
2	vs Washington State	W 34-7	>99% win
3	vs Tulane	W 31-20	99% win
4	at Cincinnati	L 26-31	6% win
6	vs No. 15 Houston	L 16-35	2% win
7	vs Kansas	59% to win
8	at Arizona State	59% to win
9	at Colorado	57% to win
10	vs Oklahoma State	50% to win
11	at TCU	39% to win
12	vs No. 20 Arizona	36% to win
13	at Iowa State	41% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Big 12 in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
9	Utah	5-0	2-0	10.1-1.9
11	Texas Tech	5-0	2-0	10.3-1.7
14	BYU	5-0	3-0	9.5-2.5
15	Houston	5-1	2-1	9.2-2.8
20	Arizona	5-1	2-1	8.7-3.3
30	Baylor	4-1	2-0	7.6-4.4
45	Oklahoma State	4-1	2-0	7.6-4.4
46	TCU	2-3	0-2	5.1-6.9
47	UCF	3-3	1-2	6.2-5.8
54	Iowa State	3-3	1-2	5.8-6.2
56	Kansas State	3-2	0-2	6.4-5.6
61	Kansas	2-3	0-2	4.8-7.2
68	Cincinnati	4-1	1-1	6.2-5.8
81	West Virginia	3-3	0-3	4.6-7.4
85	Colorado	2-3	0-2	4.2-7.8
90	Arizona State	3-2	1-1	4.9-7.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.