Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is No. 54 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.8-6.2, with a 1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #54in the model (– from last week)
- 5.8-6.2projected final record
- +3.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Iowa State's best unit is its rush offense (No. 57 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 86). Overall, the offense ranks No. 75 and the defense No. 67, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 72, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Iowa State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 54) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Iowa State would usually have won 3.2 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the Big 12, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 57% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 29.7points per game
- 21.7points allowed per game
- 39%offensive success rate
- 42%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jaylen Raynor, 1,001 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing: Aiden Flora, 680 yards on 90 carries, 6 TD
- Receiving: Dominic Overby, 10 catches, 212 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southeast Missouri State | W 38-10 | 99% win |
| 2 | at Iowa | L 13-16 | 60% win |
| 3 | vs Bowling Green | W 55-7 | 99% win |
| 4 | vs No. 9 Utah | L 17-31 | 0% win |
| 5 | vs West Virginia | W 45-42 | 62% win |
| 6 | at No. 14 BYU | L 10-24 | 2% win |
| 8 | at No. 20 Arizona | 26% to win | |
| 9 | vs Oklahoma State | 52% to win | |
| 10 | at Baylor | 31% to win | |
| 11 | vs Cincinnati | 65% to win | |
| 12 | at UCF | 42% to win | |
| 13 | vs Kansas State | 59% to win |
Big 12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Utah | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.1-1.9 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10.3-1.7 |
| 14 | BYU | 5-0 | 3-0 | 9.5-2.5 |
| 15 | Houston | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.2-2.8 |
| 20 | Arizona | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 45 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 2-0 | 7.6-4.4 |
| 46 | TCU | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 47 | UCF | 3-3 | 1-2 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 54 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 61 | Kansas | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 68 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 1-1 | 6.2-5.8 |
| 81 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 85 | Colorado | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4.2-7.8 |
| 90 | Arizona State | 3-2 | 1-1 | 4.9-7.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.