Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green is No. 125 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-4, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.4-7.6, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #125in the model (▲4 from last week)
- 4.4-7.6projected final record
- −12.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Bowling Green's best unit is its pass defense (No. 22 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 138). Overall, the offense ranks No. 137 and the defense No. 83, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 118, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Bowling Green's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 125) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Bowling Green would usually have won 2.4 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 2% to win the Mid-American, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 19% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 15.8points per game
- 29.2points allowed per game
- 40%offensive success rate
- 45%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jay Kastantin, 986 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing: Austyn Dendy, 271 yards on 77 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: Jeremiah Scoby, 24 catches, 252 yards, 0 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Tarleton State | L 13-20 | 47% win |
| 2 | at No. 13 Nebraska | L 7-56 | 1% win |
| 3 | at Iowa State | L 7-55 | 2% win |
| 4 | vs South Florida | L 6-14 | 53% win |
| 5 | at Miami (OH) | W 24-20 | 37% win |
| 6 | vs Sacramento State | W 38-10 | 99% win |
| 7 | vs Ball State | 63% to win | |
| 8 | at Buffalo | 41% to win | |
| 9 | at Western Michigan | 18% to win | |
| 11 | vs Kent State | 57% to win | |
| 12 | at Toledo | 22% to win | |
| 13 | vs Massachusetts | 41% to win |
Mid-American in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.3-3.7 |
| 75 | Toledo | 4-2 | 1-1 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 89 | Ohio | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 98 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.5-5.5 |
| 99 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.4-4.6 |
| 115 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 3-0 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 119 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.1-5.9 |
| 122 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6.0-6.0 |
| 125 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 2-0 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 126 | Kent State | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4.8-7.2 |
| 131 | Ball State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.5-8.5 |
| 134 | Akron | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.4-9.6 |
| 138 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2.1-9.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.