Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is No. 27 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 3-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.1-3.9, with a 2% chance to win out and a 14% chance to make the playoff. The AP poll has Kentucky at No. 15.
2026 at a glance
- #27in the model (▲9 from last week)
- 8.1-3.9projected final record
- +9.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 14%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Kentucky's best unit is its rush offense (No. 16 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 70). Overall, the offense ranks No. 37 and the defense No. 31, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 5, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Kentucky's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 27) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Kentucky would usually have won 4.5 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the SEC, 14% to make the 12-team playoff, 1% to earn a first-round bye and <1% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 34.7points per game
- 28points allowed per game
- 49%offensive success rate
- 45%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Kenny Minchey, 1,394 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: CJ Baxter Jr., 484 yards on 87 carries, 8 TD
- Receiving: Kenny Darby, 29 catches, 401 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Youngstown State | W 45-13 | 99% win |
| 2 | vs No. 1 Alabama | L 17-45 | 0% win |
| 3 | at Texas A&M | W 31-21 | >99% win |
| 4 | vs South Alabama | W 45-21 | >99% win |
| 5 | at South Carolina | W 35-34 | 82% win |
| 6 | vs No. 8 LSU | W 35-34 | 69% win |
| 7 | at Oklahoma | 43% to win | |
| 8 | vs Vanderbilt | 82% to win | |
| 10 | at No. 17 Tennessee | 36% to win | |
| 11 | vs Florida | 61% to win | |
| 12 | at No. 12 Missouri | 30% to win | |
| 13 | vs Louisville | 59% to win |
SEC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-1 | 3-1 | 10.2-1.8 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6-0 | 4-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 7 | Texas | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 8 | LSU | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 26 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 3-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 2-2 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 42 | Auburn | 3-2 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 82 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 88 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 0-3 | 3.3-8.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.