Auburn Tigers
Auburn is No. 42 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-2, 1-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.8-6.2, with a <1% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #42in the model (▼7 from last week)
- 5.8-6.2projected final record
- +5.2points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Auburn's best unit is its run defense (No. 38 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 106). Overall, the offense ranks No. 86 and the defense No. 46, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 46, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Auburn's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 42) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Auburn would usually have won 2 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 0% to win the SEC, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 58% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 26.8points per game
- 21.4points allowed per game
- 42%offensive success rate
- 39%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Byrum Brown, 1,052 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT
- Rushing: Byrum Brown, 344 yards on 81 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Keshaun Singleton, 29 catches, 322 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Baylor | W 17-16 | 32% win |
| 2 | vs Southern Miss | W 43-8 | 99% win |
| 3 | vs Florida | L 39-44 | 3% win |
| 4 | vs Vanderbilt | W 21-15 | 66% win |
| 5 | at No. 17 Tennessee | L 14-24 | 2% win |
| 7 | at No. 3 Georgia | 11% to win | |
| 8 | vs No. 8 LSU | 29% to win | |
| 9 | at No. 18 Ole Miss | 30% to win | |
| 10 | vs Arkansas | 77% to win | |
| 11 | at No. 19 Mississippi State | 31% to win | |
| 12 | vs Samford | 98% to win | |
| 13 | at No. 1 Alabama | 7% to win |
SEC in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-1 | 3-1 | 10.2-1.8 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6-0 | 4-0 | 10.9-1.1 |
| 7 | Texas | 4-1 | 1-1 | 8.7-3.3 |
| 8 | LSU | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.5-3.5 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.8-4.2 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 2-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 26 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 1-1 | 6.4-5.6 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 3-1 | 8.1-3.9 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.7-6.3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 1-3 | 5.9-6.1 |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 2-2 | 6.6-5.4 |
| 42 | Auburn | 3-2 | 1-2 | 5.8-6.2 |
| 82 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 0-3 | 4.4-7.6 |
| 88 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 0-3 | 3.3-8.7 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.