Week 10 college football picks and power rankings: why I'm not sold on BYU

My college football model ranks all 138 FBS teams after every week and picks every game before kickoff. Every team and every pick is on the live power rankings page, and here's how this is made.

Week 10 at a glance

• No. 1: LSU (6-2), up from No. 2.
• Game of the week: No. 5 Georgia at No. 8 Ole Miss. The model gives Georgia a 51% chance.
• Texas is No. 12 and a 52% favorite against Missouri.
• Biggest disagreement with the AP poll: BYU, No. 26 in the model and No. 7 in the AP.
• Last week: I picked 41 of 56 winners (73%).

Jump to: The top 25 · Game of the week · Forty Acres Report · BYU · Playoff picture · Other games

Week 10 power rankings: the top 25

Rank is the model's power rating: who would be favored on a neutral field next week, not who has the best résumé. Opponent ranks are the model's too. The AP poll and the betting market's ranking (teams rated from this season's point spreads, weighted toward recent weeks) are there for comparison.

• Not in the model: Ole Miss: Leading rusher Kewan Lacy dislocated his left shoulder in the loss to Texas and was ruled out of the Auburn game. Pete Golding gave no timeline beyond that week, so his status for Georgia is unclear (AP via Fox Sports, ESPN). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Injury adjustment: UCLA: starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is out for the season with a knee injury from the Oregon game, and Ty Dieffenbach, who took over in that game's second half, is expected to start. The model's UCLA rating is built on games Iamaleava started (ESPN). The model adds 0.9 points to UCLA's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025. It's a small change because Nico Iamaleava's passing numbers this season were close to the backup level the model assumes for Ty Dieffenbach.
• Injury adjustment: Ohio State: starting quarterback Julian Sayin hurt his throwing shoulder in the Indiana game and missed the loss at USC; Ryan Day has called him out indefinitely. Before USC, Day would not name a starter but said both Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair could play, and Fahey was expected to start (247Sports, Yahoo Sports, Eleven Warriors, Eleven Warriors, ESPN). The model takes 4.2 points off Ohio State's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025.
• Injury adjustment: Oregon: starting quarterback Dante Moore remains in the concussion protocol from the Sept. 26 USC game, and Dan Lanning said Oct. 26 he does not expect him back this season. Dylan Raiola, who has started since the injury, is expected to keep starting (ESPN, AP). The model adds 0.1 points to Oregon's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025. It's a small change because Dante Moore's passing numbers this season were close to the backup level the model assumes for Dylan Raiola.
• Not in the model: Texas: All-American edge rusher Colin Simmons, the national sack leader, was ruled out of the Mississippi State game, his second straight missed game with a high ankle sprain from the Florida loss. He took part in pregame warmups, and the Austin American-Statesman reported he could return as soon as the Missouri game, but Texas has not said whether he will play (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports, On3). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Texas: Left tackle Trevor Goosby will miss the rest of the season with the left knee injury he suffered in the first quarter of the Ole Miss win, according to ESPN's sources. Andre Cojoe took over at left tackle (On3, The Daily Texan). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Texas: Receiver Cam Coleman left the Mississippi State game early with an injury for the second straight week and was in street clothes in the second half. Texas has not disclosed the injury, and Steve Sarkisian declined to give details after the game (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports, KTBC via Yahoo Sports). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Texas: Starting defensive back Graceson Littleton left the Mississippi State game with an injury and did not return. Steve Sarkisian declined to give details on the injury after the game, so his status for Missouri is unclear (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Texas: Starting defensive back Kade Phillips left the Mississippi State game with an injury and did not return. Steve Sarkisian declined to give details on the injury after the game, so his status for Missouri is unclear (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Iowa: Running back Kamari Moulton is out for the season with an upper-body injury, Kirk Ferentz said (Hawk Central). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Louisville: Leading receiver Lawayne McCoy was ruled out of the Stanford game, so his status for Georgia Tech is unclear (WDRB). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Injury adjustment: Texas Tech: Joey McGuire benched Will Hammond after the loss at Cincinnati and started Florida State transfer Thomas Castellanos, who ran for 117 yards in the win over Arizona. McGuire said he would be shocked if Castellanos were not still the starter going into West Virginia week, though Castellanos's eligibility rests on an ongoing court case (ESPN, Dallas Morning News via Yahoo Sports, Heavy). The model takes 1.3 points off Texas Tech's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025.
• Injury adjustment: Kansas State: starting quarterback Avery Johnson has missed two straight games with an undisclosed injury, and no timetable has been reported for his return. Dillon Duff started at Colorado but was replaced early by Blake Barnett, and Kansas State has not said who will start against Oklahoma State (Roundtable via Yahoo Sports, AP via Killeen Daily Herald). The model takes 2.0 points off Kansas State's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025.

Where the betting market disagrees most: I'm 10 points higher on LSU (No. 1 here, No. 11 in Vegas); 10 points lower on Ohio State (No. 10 here, No. 2 in Vegas); 10 points higher on Wake Forest (No. 7 here, No. 25 in Vegas). When my numbers and the Vegas line have disagreed by 6 or more points on a game, the line has been closer to the final margin 60% of the time, so treat these as my boldest calls.

LSU has a 2.2-point cushion over No. 2 Notre Dame. Ratings, projections and playoff odds for every team are on the live page.

Head-to-head check: these ratings cover whole seasons, so a team can sit above one that beat it.

• LSU (No. 1) over Ole Miss (No. 8): Ole Miss won 32-24 at home in week 3, but over the whole season LSU rates 8.0 points better. Its pass defense ranks No. 4 of 138.
• LSU (No. 1) over Kentucky (No. 20): Kentucky won 35-34 at home in week 6, but over the whole season LSU rates 13.2 points better. Its pass defense ranks No. 4 of 138.
• Alabama (No. 6) over Tennessee (No. 15): Tennessee won 26-10 at home in week 7, but over the whole season Alabama rates 6.4 points better. Its run defense ranks No. 7 of 138.

Game of the week: Georgia at Ole Miss pick and preview

The pick: Georgia by 0.5 (51%). Vegas has Georgia by 3. Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Not in the model: Ole Miss: Leading rusher Kewan Lacy dislocated his left shoulder in the loss to Texas and was ruled out of the Auburn game. Pete Golding gave no timeline beyond that week, so his status for Georgia is unclear (AP via Fox Sports, ESPN). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

What's at stake: Georgia's playoff odds are 88% with a win and 65% with a loss; Ole Miss's are 83% and 47%.

The series: Georgia leads the all-time series 34-15-1. Last meeting: Georgia won 43-35 at Georgia in 2025.

In the news: Georgia: Kirby Smart said "The Dogs didn't beat the Dogs today" after the 27-8 win over Florida, Georgia's first game since a home loss to Auburn (ESPN).

In the news: Ole Miss: Trinidad Chambliss said he "got too in my head the past couple weeks" before the 45-15 win over Auburn, and Pete Golding said he "just wanted him to cut it loose" (Ole Miss On SI, Oxford Eagle).

In the news: Ole Miss: Pete Golding said Jalyn Crawford (shoulder) and Luke Ferrelli (ankle) were dealing with injuries and that he hoped to get them healthy for Georgia (The Rebel Walk).

How each team wins

Unit ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

• Georgia: Its biggest edge is its rushing offense (No. 26) against Ole Miss's run defense (No. 78). Another advantage: its passing offense (No. 20) against Ole Miss's pass defense (No. 64).
• Ole Miss: Its biggest edge is its passing offense (No. 14) against Georgia's pass defense (No. 33). Another advantage: its rushing offense (No. 5) against Georgia's run defense (No. 23).

Based on how they've played (postgame win probability), Georgia would usually be about 7-1 and Ole Miss about 5-3. Georgia's 7-1 matches, and Ole Miss's 6-2 is a little better than its play.

Players to watch

• Georgia
  • QB Gunner Stockton: 1,671 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT (efficiency: No. 11 of 141 FBS quarterbacks)
  • Top rusher Dwight Phillips Jr.: 415 yards, 2 TD
  • Top receiver Craig Dandridge: 20 catches, 349 yards, 1 TD
  • Pass rusher Raylen Wilson: 4 sacks, 7 tackles for loss
• Ole Miss
  • QB Trinidad Chambliss: 2,189 yards, 18 TD, 8 INT (efficiency: No. 15 of 141 FBS quarterbacks)
  • Top rusher Kewan Lacy: 388 yards, 5 TD
  • Top receiver Deuce Alexander: 48 catches, 669 yards, 5 TD
  • Pass rusher Blake Purchase: 4.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss

Forty Acres Report: Texas vs. Missouri pick and preview

Full disclosure: I'm a Texas fan, so this section shows up every week. The model doesn't care.

The pick: Texas by 0.7 (52%). Vegas has Texas by 3.5. Saturday at noon ET (11 a.m. in Austin) on ESPN.

Not in the model: Texas: All-American edge rusher Colin Simmons, the national sack leader, was ruled out of the Mississippi State game, his second straight missed game with a high ankle sprain from the Florida loss. He took part in pregame warmups, and the Austin American-Statesman reported he could return as soon as the Missouri game, but Texas has not said whether he will play (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports, On3). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Not in the model: Texas: Left tackle Trevor Goosby will miss the rest of the season with the left knee injury he suffered in the first quarter of the Ole Miss win, according to ESPN's sources. Andre Cojoe took over at left tackle (On3, The Daily Texan). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Not in the model: Texas: Receiver Cam Coleman left the Mississippi State game early with an injury for the second straight week and was in street clothes in the second half. Texas has not disclosed the injury, and Steve Sarkisian declined to give details after the game (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports, KTBC via Yahoo Sports). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Not in the model: Texas: Starting defensive back Graceson Littleton left the Mississippi State game with an injury and did not return. Steve Sarkisian declined to give details on the injury after the game, so his status for Missouri is unclear (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Not in the model: Texas: Starting defensive back Kade Phillips left the Mississippi State game with an injury and did not return. Steve Sarkisian declined to give details on the injury after the game, so his status for Missouri is unclear (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

What's at stake: With a win, Texas's playoff odds go to 72%; with a loss, they drop to 30%.

The series: Texas leads the all-time series 17-4. Last meeting: Texas won 33-16 in the postseason in 2017.

In the news: Missouri: Running back Ahmad Hardy played for the first time this season in the win at Arkansas after a long recovery from an injury suffered in the spring, the school reported (Missouri Athletics).

Where Texas stands

Texas is No. 12 in the model, down from No. 8, and No. 10 in the AP poll. Its path this season: 7, 10, 7, 7, 6, 7, 11, 8, 12 (rankings before week 7 were rebuilt after launch). It spent 4 weeks at No. 1 in the AP poll; the model's best ranking for Texas has been No. 6.

In the news: Steve Sarkisian praised Arch Manning after the 34-27 win over No. 7 Ole Miss ended a two-game losing streak, a week after he said everything, including the quarterback spot, would be evaluated (ESPN, AP).

In the news: Sarkisian called the Ole Miss win proof that football is "the ultimate team sport," noting Texas played without Colin Simmons and Hollywood Smothers and lost Trevor Goosby and Cam Coleman to injuries during the game (Saturday Down South, Heavy).

In the news: After Arch Manning was sacked five times in the 31-3 win over Mississippi State, Steve Sarkisian said there is "a line we got to be careful we don't cross over with him, because we need him as healthy as he can be going forward" (Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports).

Based on how it has played, Texas would usually be about 5-3, so its 6-2 record is a little better than its play. Playoff odds: 52% to make the 12-team field, 3% to win the SEC, 2% to win it all (more on the Texas page).

The Arch Manning question

Arch Manning came back to Texas for 2026 as a preseason Heisman co-favorite and kept the job after Steve Sarkisian left the door open to a change following back-to-back losses, then drew Sarkisian's praise in the 34-27 win over Ole Miss despite two interceptions and a lost fumble (Heisman odds, AP, ESPN, OutKick). So far the numbers haven't matched the billing: Manning is in the middle third of FBS quarterbacks in efficiency, adjusted for opponents (No. 76 of 141), with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. His line hasn't made it easier: Texas allows a sack on 10.1% of dropbacks, No. 130 of 138 in FBS (sacks reflect the quarterback too). His Mississippi State game graded out about average once the defense is accounted for.

How each team wins

• Texas: Its biggest edge is its run defense (No. 2) against Missouri's rushing offense (No. 81). Another advantage: its pass defense (No. 19) against Missouri's passing offense (No. 35).
• Missouri: Its biggest edge is its run defense (No. 8) against Texas's rushing offense (No. 74). Another advantage: its pass defense (No. 36) against Texas's passing offense (No. 69).

Last week: the 31-3 win over Mississippi State

Expected points added (EPA) measures how much each play changed a team's chances of scoring; "adjusted" accounts for the defense it came against.

• Arch Manning (16/20 for 220 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT): A roughly average game for a quarterback against the No. 84 pass defense. Expected points per dropback: 0.18 raw, 0.16 adjusted for the defense.
• Emmett Mosley V (4 catches for 98 yards, 1 TD)
• Raleek Brown (8 carries for 30 yards): One of the week's weaker games for a runner against the No. 46 run defense. Expected points per carry: −0.23 raw, −0.22 adjusted for the defense.
• Rasheem Biles (8 tackles, 4 for loss, 3 sacks): Only 1 FBS player had more sacks this week.

The season so far

Numbers are expected points added (EPA) per play. Even adjusted for the defenses, the offense has slipped. Over the last three games it averages 0.08 adjusted, against 0.20 before.

Up front: Texas allows a sack on 10.1% of dropbacks (No. 130 of 138; that's the line and the quarterback together) and gets stuffed at or behind the line on 14% of runs, adjusted for the defenses it has faced (No. 73).

Season leaders:

• Top rusher Raleek Brown: 452 yards, 5 TD
• Top receiver Ryan Wingo: 36 catches, 470 yards, 4 TD
• Pass rusher Colin Simmons: 10 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss

Missouri players to watch

• QB Austin Simmons: 1,935 yards, 16 TD, 2 INT (efficiency: No. 34 of 141 FBS quarterbacks)
• Top rusher Jamal Roberts: 1,005 yards, 9 TD
• Top receiver Cayden Lee: 51 catches, 730 yards, 5 TD
• Pass rusher Daeden Hopkins: 7 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss

BYU: the model's argument with the AP poll

BYU is No. 7 in the AP poll but only No. 26 in the model. Here's why:

• The record: by résumé (wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect on its schedule), BYU ranks No. 6, which is what voters are rewarding.
• The play: based on how it has played, BYU would usually be about 6-2.
• The weak spot: its run defense ranks No. 52 of 138.
• This week: BYU at No. 4 Utah. The model has Utah by 11.5 (77%); Vegas has Utah by 5.5.
• The real test: vs. No. 22 Baylor in week 11, where the model gives BYU a 54% chance.
• Playoff odds: 22%.
• Quarterback: Bear Bachmeier, 1,750 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT, No. 35 of 141 FBS quarterbacks in efficiency.

Risers and fallers

• Up: Liberty (+27 to No. 17, after beating Florida International 49-10); Baylor (+17 to No. 22, after winning 41-9 at UCF); Iowa (+12 to No. 14, after beating Wisconsin 30-0).
• Down: BYU (−11 to No. 26, despite beating Arizona State 27-20); Wisconsin (−11 to No. 40, after losing 30-0 at Iowa); Nebraska (−8 to No. 25, after losing 17-10 to Washington).

Last week's report card

I picked 41 of 56 winners in week 9 (73%). Vegas favorites went 45 of 56. Worst miss: I gave James Madison an 89% chance, and Troy won by 3. Full results are in the track record.

Playoff picture

The 12 teams most likely to make the field, then the next four. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, conference title games and the bracket.

The Group of 6 bid: the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt gets in, champion or not (new for 2026). Leading that race: Boise State (48% to make the field), Liberty (34% to make the field), New Mexico (7% to make the field).

* Boise State has fewer than 12 games on the schedule in our data source, so the projection covers only those.

To pick the field, each simulation ranks teams roughly the way the committee does: rating, minus about 5 points per loss, plus schedule strength and a small bump for conference champions. Nobody can model the committee exactly, so treat the odds for teams with tough schedules as rough.

Week 10 picks for the other big games

Where I disagree with Vegas

The biggest gaps between my numbers and the betting line this week, in games with a ranked or Power 4 team. Don't read them as locks: from 2018 through 2025, when the gap was 6 points or more, the line ended up closer to the final margin 60% of the time (780 games). When the two picked different winners, I was right 51% of the time (488 games), about a coin flip. A big gap often means the line knows something I don't, like an injury.

• Liberty at New Mexico State: model Liberty by 23.3; Vegas has Liberty by 14.5. An 8.8-point gap.
• UCLA at Minnesota: model UCLA by 14.3; Vegas has UCLA by 6.5. A 7.8-point gap.
• Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: model Mississippi State by 9.5; Vegas has Mississippi State by 2.5. A 7.0-point gap.

Week 9's best performances

From the box scores: passers ranked by adjusted yards per attempt (touchdowns add 20 yards, interceptions take away 45; 20+ attempts), runners and receivers by yards (15+ carries, 5+ catches).

• Passing: D.J. Lagway, Baylor: 16/25 for 319 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT (16.0 adjusted yards per attempt), in a 41-9 win over UCF.
• Rushing: Aiden Flora, Iowa State: 29 carries for 221 yards (7.6 a carry), in a 51-49 win over Oklahoma State.
• Receiving: Easton Messer, Florida Atlantic: 16 catches for 189 yards, in a 48-41 loss to North Texas.
• Pass rush: C.J. Hicks, South Florida: 4 sacks (the most by any FBS player this week), in a 30-10 win over UAB.

Most productive players (a Heisman watch by the numbers)

Who has added the most value this season: expected points (the EPA used above) added beyond what an average player would have produced on the same plays, adjusted for the defenses faced (garbage time excluded). It's not a Heisman prediction; voters weigh stats, team success and big moments, and quarterbacks dominate any list like this.

How this is made

Each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, recruiting, roster talent and coaching changes), and every game moves it toward what actually happened, using the final margin (blowouts count with diminishing returns) and play-by-play efficiency (EPA per play and success rate), with opponent strength built in and recent games counting a little more. The preseason rating fades as the season goes: it counts for less from week 7 and not at all from week 10, so by then the rankings come only from this season's games. A confirmed quarterback absence moves a team's rating by half the gap between the starter and his replacement (tested on 2024 and 2025); other injuries are flagged but not priced. Tested on 2018 through 2025 (2020 skipped) without peeking ahead, from week 4 on it missed final margins by 12.5 points on average and picked 73.0% of winners; the Vegas closing line missed by 12.1 and picked 72.8% (in weeks 1-3, when ratings lean on preseason expectations, the gap is wider: 13.3 vs. 12.3). Next week's edition grades these picks, misses included.

This post is generated automatically each week from the model's data. Every number in it is computed from play-by-play and box scores (via CollegeFootballData.com), and player numbers are checked against the official box score before they're used. The sentences come from templates I wrote, and any post can be edited by hand. I built the model and the automation with Claude as a pair programmer; the choices about what to measure and what to say are mine.