Week 9 college football picks and power rankings: my case for LSU

My college football model ranks all 138 FBS teams after every week and picks every game before kickoff. Every team and every pick is on the live power rankings page, and here's how this is made.

Week 9 at a glance

• No. 1: Notre Dame (6-1), holding the top spot.
• Game of the week: No. 14 Arizona at No. 18 Texas Tech. The model gives Texas Tech a 55% chance.
• Texas is No. 8 and an 80% favorite against Mississippi State.
• Biggest disagreement with the AP poll: LSU, No. 2 in the model and No. 18 in the AP.
• Last week: I picked 33 of 56 winners (59%).

Jump to: The top 25 · Game of the week · Forty Acres Report · LSU · Playoff picture · Other games

Week 9 power rankings: the top 25

Rank is the model's power rating: who would be favored on a neutral field next week, not who has the best résumé. Opponent ranks are the model's too. The AP poll and the betting market's ranking (teams rated from this season's point spreads, weighted toward recent weeks) are there for comparison.

• Injury adjustment: Ohio State: starting quarterback Julian Sayin hurt his throwing shoulder in the Indiana game, and Ryan Day said he is out indefinitely, with the staff planning for him to miss the rest of the regular season and the postseason. True freshman Luke Fahey has been ahead of Tavien St. Clair, with a starting decision expected after the bye week (Eleven Warriors, ESPN). The model takes 4.9 points off Ohio State's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025.
• Not in the model: Texas: All-American edge rusher Colin Simmons, the national sack leader, missed the Ole Miss game with a high ankle sprain from the Florida loss. Reports have called him week to week, and Texas has not said whether he can play against Mississippi State (On3, CBS Sports, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Texas: Left tackle Trevor Goosby was carted off with a left knee injury in the first quarter against Ole Miss and watched the rest of the game on crutches. Steve Sarkisian gave no diagnosis and said the injuries to Goosby and Cam Coleman did not look good (Heavy, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Texas: Receiver Cam Coleman landed hard on his left shoulder on the first play of the third quarter against Ole Miss and did not return. Steve Sarkisian gave no diagnosis and said the injuries to Coleman and Trevor Goosby did not look good (Heavy, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Not in the model: Texas: Running back Hollywood Smothers missed the Ole Miss game after being listed questionable, and Texas has not given an update for Mississippi State (Austin American-Statesman, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.
• Injury adjustment: UCLA: starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is out for the season with a knee injury from the Oregon game, and Ty Dieffenbach, who took over in that game's second half, is expected to start. The model's UCLA rating is built on games Iamaleava started (ESPN). The model adds 1.2 points to UCLA's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025.
• Injury adjustment: Arizona State: Cutter Boley was benched at halftime at Texas Tech, and Mikey Keene, who started against Kansas State, hurt his leg in that game. Kenny Dillingham said freshman Jake Fette, who led two touchdown drives in the win over Kansas State, should start at BYU, depending on Keene's health (Arizona Sports, Arizona Sports). The model takes 1.2 points off Arizona State's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025.
• Injury adjustment: Oregon: starting quarterback Dante Moore has missed three straight games with a concussion from the Sept. 26 USC game, and Oregon has not said whether he will be cleared for Northwestern. Dylan Raiola started the loss at Illinois (Field Level Media, AP). The model takes 0.9 points off Oregon's rating for it, half the gap between the two quarterbacks' numbers, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025. It's a small change because Dante Moore's passing numbers this season were close to the backup level the model assumes for Dylan Raiola.
• Not in the model: Oregon: leading receiver Evan Stewart was listed out for the Illinois game on the Big Ten availability report, his second straight missed game, and he was arrested on a DUI charge the weekend before (ESPN). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Where the betting market disagrees most: I'm 8 points higher on Kentucky (No. 19 here, No. 43 in Vegas); 8 points higher on LSU (No. 2 here, No. 11 in Vegas); 8 points lower on Oregon (No. 21 here, No. 6 in Vegas). When my numbers and the Vegas line have disagreed by 6 or more points on a game, the line has been closer to the final margin 60% of the time, so treat these as my boldest calls.

The top five are separated by about 4 points, so No. 1 is up for grabs every week. Ratings, projections and playoff odds for every team are on the live page.

Head-to-head check: these ratings cover whole seasons, so a team can sit above one that beat it.

• Notre Dame (No. 1) over BYU (No. 15): BYU won 28-24 at home in week 7, but over the whole season Notre Dame rates 11.3 points better. Its run defense ranks No. 2 of 138.
• LSU (No. 2) over Ole Miss (No. 10): Ole Miss won 32-24 at home in week 3, but over the whole season LSU rates 6.6 points better. Its pass defense ranks No. 4 of 138.
• LSU (No. 2) over Kentucky (No. 19): Kentucky won 35-34 at home in week 6, but over the whole season LSU rates 11.2 points better. Its pass defense ranks No. 4 of 138.

Game of the week: Arizona at Texas Tech pick and preview

The pick: Texas Tech by 1.9 (55%). Vegas has Texas Tech by 4.5. Saturday at noon ET on ESPN.

What's at stake: Texas Tech's playoff odds are 32% with a win and 9% with a loss; Arizona's are 32% and 8%.

The series: Texas Tech leads the all-time series 27-5-2. Last meeting: Texas Tech won 28-22 at Arizona in 2024.

In the news: Arizona: The homecoming win over Iowa State, Arizona's fifth straight, clinched bowl eligibility for a second straight season, which Sports Illustrated's Arizona site says the program had not done since 2014 and 2015 (Arizona Wildcats On SI).

In the news: Texas Tech: Joey McGuire called the 37-24 loss at Cincinnati, the first of the season for the defending Big 12 champions, "as bad of football that we have been a part of" (On3, ClutchPoints).

How each team wins

Unit ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

• Texas Tech: Its biggest edge is its run defense (No. 29) against Arizona's rushing offense (No. 63).
• Arizona: Its biggest edge is its pass defense (No. 14) against Texas Tech's passing offense (No. 70). Another advantage: its run defense (No. 16) against Texas Tech's rushing offense (No. 39).

Based on how they've played (postgame win probability), Arizona would usually be about 6-1 and Texas Tech about 5-2. Arizona's 6-1 matches, and Texas Tech's 6-1 is a little better than its play.

Players to watch

• Arizona
  • QB Noah Fifita: 2,047 yards, 18 TD, 4 INT (efficiency: No. 19 of 134 FBS quarterbacks)
  • Top rusher Kedrick Reescano: 303 yards, 5 TD
  • Top receiver Isaiah Mizell: 27 catches, 493 yards, 5 TD
  • Pass rusher Chase Kennedy: 4 sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss
• Texas Tech
  • QB Will Hammond: 1,561 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT (efficiency: No. 66 of 134 FBS quarterbacks)
  • Top rusher J'Koby Williams: 619 yards, 5 TD
  • Top receiver Kenny Johnson: 31 catches, 499 yards, 1 TD
  • Pass rusher Anthony Holmes Jr.: 5.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss

Forty Acres Report: Texas vs. Mississippi State pick and preview

Full disclosure: I'm a Texas fan, so this section shows up every week. The model doesn't care.

The pick: Texas by 13.2 (80%). Vegas has Texas by 21. Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. in Austin) on ESPN.

Not in the model: Texas: All-American edge rusher Colin Simmons, the national sack leader, missed the Ole Miss game with a high ankle sprain from the Florida loss. Reports have called him week to week, and Texas has not said whether he can play against Mississippi State (On3, CBS Sports, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Not in the model: Texas: Left tackle Trevor Goosby was carted off with a left knee injury in the first quarter against Ole Miss and watched the rest of the game on crutches. Steve Sarkisian gave no diagnosis and said the injuries to Goosby and Cam Coleman did not look good (Heavy, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Not in the model: Texas: Receiver Cam Coleman landed hard on his left shoulder on the first play of the third quarter against Ole Miss and did not return. Steve Sarkisian gave no diagnosis and said the injuries to Coleman and Trevor Goosby did not look good (Heavy, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

Not in the model: Texas: Running back Hollywood Smothers missed the Ole Miss game after being listed questionable, and Texas has not given an update for Mississippi State (Austin American-Statesman, Saturday Down South). The model can't price this one; the Vegas line usually does.

What's at stake: With a win, Texas's playoff odds go to 74%; with a loss, they drop to 36%.

The series: Texas leads the all-time series 4-2. Last meeting: Texas won 45-38 at Mississippi State in 2025.

In the news: Mississippi State: Quarterback Kamario Taylor, who missed the LSU game with a foot injury, aggravated it and left the Oklahoma loss in the first quarter, and his status for Texas is uncertain; former walk-on Billy Puckett, who started at LSU, played the rest of the game (WLBT, On3, Mississippi State On SI).

Where Texas stands

Texas is No. 8 in the model, up from No. 11, and No. 19 in the AP poll. Its path this season: 7, 10, 7, 7, 6, 7, 11, 8 (rankings before week 7 were rebuilt after launch). It spent 4 weeks at No. 1 in the AP poll; the model's best ranking for Texas has been No. 6.

In the news: Steve Sarkisian praised Arch Manning after the 34-27 win over No. 7 Ole Miss ended a two-game losing streak, a week after he said everything, including the quarterback spot, would be evaluated (ESPN, AP).

In the news: Sarkisian called the Ole Miss win proof that football is "the ultimate team sport," noting Texas played without Colin Simmons and Hollywood Smothers and lost Trevor Goosby and Cam Coleman to injuries during the game (Saturday Down South, Heavy).

Based on how it has played, Texas would usually be about 4-3, so its 5-2 record is a little better than its play. Playoff odds: 66% to make the 12-team field, 4% to win the SEC, 4% to win it all (more on the Texas page).

The Arch Manning question

Arch Manning came back to Texas for 2026 as a preseason Heisman co-favorite and kept the job after Steve Sarkisian left the door open to a change following back-to-back losses, then drew Sarkisian's praise in the 34-27 win over Ole Miss despite two interceptions and a lost fumble (Heisman odds, AP, ESPN, OutKick). So far the numbers haven't matched the billing: Manning is in the middle third of FBS quarterbacks in efficiency, adjusted for opponents (No. 71 of 134), with 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. His line hasn't made it easier: Texas allows a sack on 8.9% of dropbacks, No. 124 of 138 in FBS (sacks reflect the quarterback too). His Ole Miss game graded out below average once the defense is accounted for.

How each team wins

• Texas: Its biggest edge is its pass defense (No. 21) against Mississippi State's passing offense (No. 54). Another advantage: its passing offense (No. 72) against Mississippi State's pass defense (No. 87).
• Mississippi State: Strength against strength: its rushing offense (No. 10) against Texas's run defense (No. 11).

Last week: the 34-27 win over Ole Miss

Expected points added (EPA) measures how much each play changed a team's chances of scoring; "adjusted" accounts for the defense it came against.

• Arch Manning (18/30 for 212 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT): A below-average game for a quarterback against the No. 56 pass defense. That's below his usual level. The two interceptions in a 7-point game still hurt. Expected points per dropback: −0.06 raw, −0.04 adjusted for the defense.
• Ryan Wingo (7 catches for 111 yards, 1 TD)
• Raleek Brown (23 carries for 157 yards): A roughly average game for a runner against the No. 90 run defense. Expected points per carry: 0.16 raw, 0.11 adjusted for the defense.
• Rasheem Biles (4 tackles, 1 for loss)

The season so far

Numbers are expected points added (EPA) per play. Even adjusted for the defenses, the offense has slipped. Over the last three games it averages 0.10 adjusted, against 0.19 before.

Up front: Texas allows a sack on 8.9% of dropbacks (No. 124 of 138; that's the line and the quarterback together) and gets stuffed at or behind the line on 14% of runs, adjusted for the defenses it has faced (No. 70).

Season leaders:

• Top rusher Raleek Brown: 422 yards, 5 TD
• Top receiver Ryan Wingo: 33 catches, 456 yards, 4 TD
• Pass rusher Colin Simmons: 10 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss

Mississippi State players to watch

• QB Kamario Taylor: 1,460 yards, 17 TD, 4 INT (efficiency: No. 48 of 134 FBS quarterbacks)
• Top rusher Fluff Bothwell: 514 yards, 3 TD
• Top receiver Anthony Evans III: 53 catches, 647 yards, 5 TD
• Pass rusher Jaray Bledsoe: 2.5 sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss

LSU: the model's argument with the AP poll

LSU is No. 2 in the model but No. 18 in the AP poll. Here's the case:

• The defense: No. 1 of 138 in efficiency, adjusted for opponents (pass defense No. 4, run defense No. 5).
• The losses: 32-24 to Ole Miss on the road and 35-34 to Kentucky on the road, by a combined 9 points.
• The play: based on how it has played, LSU would usually be about 7-1, not 6-2.
• Why voters see it differently: they judge the record, and by résumé (wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect on its schedule) LSU ranks No. 15.
• The real test: vs No. 4 Alabama in week 10, where the model gives LSU a 60% chance.
• Playoff odds: 87%.
• Quarterback: Sam Leavitt, 2,171 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT, No. 12 of 134 FBS quarterbacks in efficiency.

Risers and fallers

• Up: Arizona (+9 to No. 14, after beating Iowa State 39-3); UCF (+9 to No. 38, after beating BYU 39-31); Oklahoma State (+7 to No. 30, after beating Colorado 57-24).
• Down: TCU (−10 to No. 39, after losing 24-20 to West Virginia); USC (−8 to No. 27, after losing 24-7 at Wisconsin); Texas Tech (−6 to No. 18, after losing 37-24 at Cincinnati).

Last week's report card

I picked 33 of 56 winners in week 8 (59%). Vegas favorites went 36 of 56. Worst miss: I gave Troy an 85% chance, and UL Monroe won by 7. Full results are in the track record.

Playoff picture

The 12 teams most likely to make the field, then the next four. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, conference title games and the bracket.

The Group of 6 bid: the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt gets in, champion or not (new for 2026). Leading that race: Boise State (61% to make the field), New Mexico (8% to make the field), UTSA (7% to make the field).

* Boise State has fewer than 12 games on the schedule in our data source, so the projection covers only those.

To pick the field, each simulation ranks teams roughly the way the committee does: rating, minus about 5 points per loss, plus schedule strength and a small bump for conference champions. Nobody can model the committee exactly, so treat the odds for teams with tough schedules as rough.

Week 9 picks for the other big games

Where I disagree with Vegas

The biggest gaps between my numbers and the betting line this week, in games with a ranked or Power 4 team. Don't read them as locks: from 2018 through 2025, when the gap was 6 points or more, the line ended up closer to the final margin 60% of the time (780 games). When the two picked different winners, I was right 51% of the time (488 games), about a coin flip. A big gap often means the line knows something I don't, like an injury.

• Mississippi State at Texas: model Texas by 13.2; Vegas has Texas by 21. A 7.8-point gap.
• Michigan at Rutgers: model Michigan by 8.7; Vegas has Michigan by 14. A 5.3-point gap.
• Washington at Nebraska: model Nebraska by 13.8; Vegas has Nebraska by 8.5. A 5.3-point gap.

Week 8's best performances

From the box scores: passers ranked by adjusted yards per attempt (touchdowns add 20 yards, interceptions take away 45; 20+ attempts), runners and receivers by yards (15+ carries, 5+ catches).

• Passing: Tayven Jackson, North Texas: 17/23 for 305 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (13.9 adjusted yards per attempt), in a 49-39 win over Navy.
• Rushing: Jackson Gutierrez, Navy: 26 carries for 228 yards (8.8 a carry), in a 49-39 loss to North Texas.
• Receiving: Isaiah Myers, Missouri State: 11 catches for 242 yards, in a 61-38 loss to Delaware.
• Pass rush: Owen Pewee, UTSA: 3 sacks (the most by any FBS player this week), in a 42-19 win over Tulane.

Most productive players (a Heisman watch by the numbers)

Who has added the most value this season: expected points (the EPA used above) added beyond what an average player would have produced on the same plays, adjusted for the defenses faced (garbage time excluded). It's not a Heisman prediction; voters weigh stats, team success and big moments, and quarterbacks dominate any list like this.

How this is made

Each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, recruiting, roster talent and coaching changes), and every game moves it toward what actually happened, using the final margin (blowouts count with diminishing returns) and play-by-play efficiency (EPA per play and success rate), with opponent strength built in and recent games counting a little more. The preseason rating fades as the season goes: it counts for less from week 7 and not at all from week 10, so by then the rankings come only from this season's games. A confirmed quarterback absence moves a team's rating by half the gap between the starter and his replacement (tested on 2024 and 2025); other injuries are flagged but not priced. Tested on 2018 through 2025 (2020 skipped) without peeking ahead, from week 4 on it missed final margins by 12.5 points on average and picked 73.0% of winners; the Vegas closing line missed by 12.1 and picked 72.8% (in weeks 1-3, when ratings lean on preseason expectations, the gap is wider: 13.3 vs. 12.3). Next week's edition grades these picks, misses included.

This post is generated automatically each week from the model's data. Every number in it is computed from play-by-play and box scores (via CollegeFootballData.com), and player numbers are checked against the official box score before they're used. The sentences come from templates I wrote, and any post can be edited by hand. I built the model and the automation with Claude as a pair programmer; the choices about what to measure and what to say are mine.