I rank all 138 FBS teams after every week and pick every game before kickoff. Every team and every pick is on the live power rankings page.
My take: Week 11 ran into Sunday: Ole Miss at Oklahoma was pushed back a day after Friday's FAA ground stop kept the Rebels from flying, so this edition came out later than usual.
Georgia is my new No. 1, up from No. 4 after beating Missouri 48-21. Don't get attached. Notre Dame was No. 1 last week, won 41-7 and fell to third.
The game to watch is LSU at Tennessee, and I'm taking the team with four losses, barely. LSU is 6-4 and has played better than that. It also can't afford to lose: a loss drops its playoff odds to 10%.
Texas got out of LSU with a 22-21 win and comes home to Arkansas. That's the Arkansas that just beat South Carolina 34-6. The AP had South Carolina at No. 20. I have the Gamecocks at No. 37, and I don't think that score was a fluke.
Model update this week: The ranking now weighs wins (details).
Week 12 power rankings: the top 25
Rank weighs what a team has earned (60%: wins against its schedule) and how good it is (40%: my power rating, who would be favored on a neutral field). The AP poll and the betting market's ranking are there for comparison. This week's AP poll wasn't out yet, so those ranks are last week's.
| Rank (prev.) | Team | Record | This week (win %) | AP poll | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (4) | Georgia | 9-1 | at South Carolina (86%) | 1 | 3 |
| 2 (3) | Utah | 10-0 | at TCU (74%) | 2 | 14 |
| 3 (1) | Notre Dame | 9-1 | vs. SMU (91%) | 3 | 1 |
| 4 (2) | Miami | 9-1 | vs. Virginia Tech (95%) | 5 | 5 |
| 5 (7) | Wake Forest | 9-1 | at Georgia Tech (96%) | 11 | 20 |
| 6 (5) | Alabama | 8-2 | Bye | 7 | 9 |
| 7 (8) | Texas | 8-2 | vs. Arkansas (85%) | 8 | 10 |
| 8 (6) | UCLA | 10-0 | at Michigan (78%) | 4 | 23 |
| 9 (9) | Tennessee | 8-2 | vs. No. 20 LSU (48%) | 9 | 26 |
| 10 (16) | Texas Tech | 9-1 | at Baylor (53%) | 10 | 11 |
| 11 (14) | BYU | 8-2 | at Kansas (62%) | 12 | 19 |
| 12 (15) | Oregon | 7-3 | at Michigan State (81%) | 18 | 6 |
| 13 (19) | Ohio State | 7-3 | at Nebraska (54%) | 21 | 2 |
| 14 (13) | Indiana | 9-1 | at Washington (64%) | 6 | 4 |
| 15 (18) | Boise State | 9-1 | vs. San Diego State (92%) | 17 | 22 |
| 16 (20) | Iowa | 8-2 | at Illinois (67%) | 16 | 16 |
| 17 (11) | Ole Miss | 6-4 | Bye | 19 | 13 |
| 18 (26) | Louisville | 7-3 | vs. Pittsburgh (81%) | NR | 17 |
| 19 (10) | Kentucky | 7-3 | at Missouri (43%) | 13 | 41 |
| 20 (12) | LSU | 6-4 | at No. 9 Tennessee (52%) | 24 | 8 |
| 21 (17) | Houston | 7-3 | at West Virginia (77%) | 14 | 24 |
| 22 (21) | Liberty | 9-1 | vs. Western Kentucky (92%) | NR | 37 |
| 23 (24) | Arizona | 7-3 | at Kansas State (76%) | 22 | 31 |
| 24 (22) | USC | 7-3 | vs. Maryland (84%) | 15 | 7 |
| 25 (35) | Oklahoma | 6-4 | vs. Texas A&M (60%) | NR | 18 |
Where I part ways with Vegas: I rate Wake Forest 14 points better than the betting market does (No. 5 here, No. 20 in Vegas), Indiana 11 points worse (No. 14 here, No. 4 there) and Tennessee 8 points better (No. 9 here, No. 26 there). Those are my boldest calls.
The top five are separated by about 2 points, so No. 1 is up for grabs every week. Ratings, projections and playoff odds for every team are on the live page.
Head-to-head: Notre Dame (No. 3) is above Miami (No. 4) because it beat Miami 31-24 at home in week 10; Oregon (No. 12) is above Ohio State (No. 13) because it beat Ohio State 41-28 on the road in week 10; Ohio State (No. 13) is above Indiana (No. 14) because it beat Indiana 19-15 on the road in week 7; Ole Miss (No. 17) is above Louisville (No. 18) because it beat Louisville 41-38 at a neutral site in week 1; Kentucky (No. 19) is above LSU (No. 20) because it beat LSU 35-34 at home in week 6; Oklahoma (No. 25) is above Florida (No. 26) because it beat Florida 23-7 on the road in week 10.
Model update this week
The ranking now weighs wins. The order of the rankings now weighs what a team has earned as well as how good it is: 60% résumé (wins above what a playoff-caliber team would get against the same schedule, so beating good teams counts and beating weak ones counts less) and 40% power rating. When two teams are within 2 points and the lower one won their game, it moves ahead, the way the playoff committee uses head-to-head. Picks, win odds and playoff odds still come from the power rating alone, which is what predicts games. Tested on 2022 through 2025 against every top 25 the committee published, the new order matched the committee twice as closely (an average miss of 3.0 spots on its top 25, down from 6.6), and the higher-ranked team won 69% of the next week's games between top-40 teams, up from 67%. Earlier weeks are re-ranked the same way, so week-to-week moves compare like with like. The change came from a 6-3 LSU sitting at No. 4: its play-by-play efficiency is the best in the country, which still makes it a strong team, but a ranking should also reflect the losses.
Game of the week: LSU at Tennessee pick and preview
The pick: LSU by 0.7 (52%). Vegas has LSU by 1.5. Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
I'm picking a 6-4 team on the road against an 8-2 team, by less than a point, so I owe you a reason. By how they've played, LSU and Tennessee would both usually be about 8-2. Tennessee has the record to show for it. LSU doesn't, and its last loss was by a point to Texas.
The matchup that decides it is Sam Leavitt against Tennessee's pass defense, which ranks No. 1 of 138. Leavitt threw three interceptions against Texas, which Lane Kiffin called "poor decisions" afterward. That gives him 12 this season. LSU does catch a break up front: Tyree Weathersby, Tennessee's sack leader with seven, is out for the season.
Tennessee will want to run. Its rushing offense ranks sixth, and DeSean Bishop has 1,163 yards and 13 touchdowns. Throwing is the problem. The passing offense ranks 83rd, LSU's pass defense ranks eighth, and it isn't clear who the quarterback will be. George MacIntyre came out in the second half at Texas A&M, freshman Faizon Brandon finished the win, and Josh Heupel hasn't given an update.
For LSU, this is the season: 58% to make the playoff with a win, 10% with a loss. Tennessee is at 91% with a win and 52% with a loss, which would hurt but wouldn't end it. The Vols lead the series 21-10-3 and won the last meeting 40-13, at LSU in 2022.
Forty Acres Report: Texas vs. Arkansas pick and preview
Full disclosure: I went to UT and marched in the Longhorn Band, so Texas gets its own section every week. I'm biased; the numbers aren't.
The pick: Texas by 16.4 (85%). Vegas has Texas by 21. Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Texas won 22-21 at LSU on Arch Manning's 3-yard touchdown pass to Raleek Brown with 3 seconds left. Manning said "In the last drive, you love that pressure" afterward. Speaking as a fan, I didn't love it until it was over.
Now the honest part. Manning also threw three interceptions, and based on how Texas has played, it would usually be about 6-4, not 8-2. Texas allows a sack on 9.7% of dropbacks, 131st of 138, and that's the line and the quarterback together. Left tackle Trevor Goosby will miss the rest of the season. What carries this team is the run defense, which ranks second in the country. Arkansas's rushing offense ranks 90th.
Arkansas just handled South Carolina, so I'm not calling it a week off. But the math is friendly. Texas is at 91% to make the playoff (the full Texas page). Win out and it's 99%. Finish 9-3 and it's 85%. Lose both games left and it's 32%, so let's not.
South Carolina: where I disagree with the AP poll
My biggest disagreement with the AP poll is South Carolina: No. 20 there, No. 37 here. Fair warning: that No. 20 is last week's poll, from before the 34-6 loss at Arkansas, so I expect the voters to close some of the gap themselves.
The voters had a case. South Carolina is 6-4, its rushing offense ranks 15th and its run defense ranks 20th. One of the losses was 35-34 to Kentucky, which I have at No. 19.
What I don't buy is the defense. The pass defense ranks 122nd of 138. Alabama scored 49 against South Carolina, and Arkansas, which is 4-6, scored 34. By how it has played, South Carolina would usually be about 5-5, and that's closer to what I see than a top-25 team.
Saturday is a bad week to have that problem. No. 1 Georgia visits with a passing offense that ranks eighth, and I have the Dogs by 17.3, about where Vegas has it. After that South Carolina goes to Clemson, where I give it a 69% chance. South Carolina's playoff odds are 0%, so all that's riding on these two games is the argument.
Around the country
Wake Forest is the ranking I'll take the heat for. I rate Wake about 14 points better than the betting market does (No. 5 here, No. 20 there). Last week it backed me up: I took Wake at SMU when Vegas favored the other side, and it won 49-7.
New Mexico did the opposite. I gave New Mexico a 90% chance, and it lost 21-17 to UNLV and fell 9 spots to No. 32. Boise State is 69% to make the field as the Group of 6 team, with Liberty next at 18%. Rasean Jones had 11 catches for 230 yards in Boise State's 46-41 win over Oregon State.
The game that made this edition late was worth the wait for Oklahoma, which beat Ole Miss 24-17 and moved from No. 35 to No. 25. And Auburn jumped 14 spots to No. 27 after winning 41-9 at Mississippi State.
Playoff picture
The 12 teams most likely to make the field, then the next four, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (how). Every contender's odds for each seed, and the projected bracket, are on the playoff bracket projection.
| Team | Projected | Conf. title | Playoff | National title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 10.8-1.2 | n/a | >99% | 19% |
| Georgia | 10.8-1.2 | 59% | >99% | 20% |
| Utah | 11.7-0.3 | 63% | 97% | 8% |
| Miami | 10.9-1.1 | 41% | 96% | 9% |
| Alabama | 9.8-2.2 | 28% | 96% | 9% |
| Wake Forest | 10.8-1.2 | 58% | 96% | 16% |
| Texas | 9.6-2.4 | 7% | 91% | 4% |
| UCLA | 11.5-0.5 | 51% | 78% | 3% |
| Tennessee | 9.4-2.6 | 6% | 71% | 3% |
| Boise State | 9.9-1.1* | 57% | 69% | <1% |
| Oregon | 8.6-3.4 | 9% | 41% | 1% |
| Texas Tech | 10.2-1.8 | 26% | 40% | 1% |
| First four out | ||||
| LSU | 7.4-4.6 | 0% | 35% | 3% |
| Indiana | 10.5-1.5 | 26% | 35% | 1% |
| BYU | 9.4-2.6 | 10% | 34% | 1% |
| Louisville | 8.5-3.5 | 1% | 27% | 1% |
The Group of 6 bid: the top team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt gets in, champion or not. Leading that race: Boise State (69%), Liberty (18%), Louisiana Tech (4%).
* Boise State has fewer than 12 games in my data source, so the projection covers only those.
Week 12 picks for the other big games
Which of these matter most for the playoff race? The games to watch page ranks every game this week by how much its result moves the playoff odds.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | My pick | Win % | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 2 Utah at TCU | Sat TBA | Utah by 10.5 | 74% | Utah by 6.5 |
| Virginia Tech at No. 4 Miami | Sat TBA | Miami by 26.5 | 95% | Miami by 20.5 |
| No. 5 Wake Forest at Georgia Tech | Sat TBA | Wake Forest by 27.1 | 96% | Wake Forest by 21.5 |
| North Carolina at Virginia The South's Oldest Rivalry | Sat 12:30 p.m., CW | North Carolina by 5.3 | 63% | Virginia by 1.5 |
| No. 8 UCLA at Michigan | Sat 3:30 p.m., CBS | UCLA by 12.1 | 78% | UCLA by 5.5 |
| SMU at No. 3 Notre Dame | Sat 7:30 p.m., NBC | Notre Dame by 21.8 | 91% | Notre Dame by 20.5 |
| No. 1 Georgia at South Carolina | Sat 7:30 p.m., ABC | Georgia by 17.3 | 86% | Georgia by 16.5 |
| Stanford at California The Big Game | Sat 7:30 p.m., ACC Network | Stanford by 3.4 | 58% | Stanford by 2.5 |
Injuries I'm tracking
Starting quarterback changes move my ratings (how); other injuries don't, so the Vegas line usually knows more about those.
| Team | Player | The news | In my numbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | WR Malachi Toney | Receiver Malachi Toney had ankle surgery after a practice injury before the Notre Dame game. Mario Cristobal said he could return in as little as four weeks, and CBS Sports reports a four to six week absence, which would likely cover the rest of the regular season. (CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports) | Not priced |
| Texas | OT Trevor Goosby | Left tackle Trevor Goosby will miss the rest of the season with the left knee injury he suffered in the first quarter of the Ole Miss win, according to ESPN's sources. Andre Cojoe took over at left tackle. (On3, The Daily Texan) | Not priced |
| Texas | RB Hollywood Smothers | Running back Hollywood Smothers is out for the season with a torn MCL from the Oct. 31 Mississippi State game, according to On3 and 247Sports reporting. (Yahoo Sports, Austin American-Statesman) | Not priced |
| UCLA | QB Nico Iamaleava | Starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is out for the season with a knee injury from the Oregon game, and Ty Dieffenbach, who took over in that game's second half, is expected to start. (ESPN) | +1.2 points |
| Michigan | QB Bryce Underwood | Bryce Underwood lost the starting job in October. Tommy Carr started at Oregon, Underwood replaced him briefly in the first half, and Carr returned after halftime; Kyle Whittingham said Carr was "the guy that we felt gave us the best chance to win." No starter has been named for UCLA. (Athlon Sports, Yahoo Sports, On3) | +0.2 points |
| Tennessee | EDGE Tyree Weathersby | Edge rusher Tyree Weathersby, Tennessee's sack leader with seven, is out for the season with a knee injury from the Nov. 7 Kentucky win, according to On3 reporting. (On3, WJHL) | Not priced |
| Texas Tech | QB Will Hammond | Joey McGuire benched Will Hammond after the loss at Cincinnati, and Thomas Castellanos has started since, most recently throwing four touchdown passes in the 52-27 win at Oklahoma State. Castellanos is expected to start at Baylor. (Texas Tech Athletics, CBS Sports, ESPN) | −0.6 points |
| Oregon | QB Dante Moore | Starting quarterback Dante Moore remains in the concussion protocol from the Sept. 26 USC game, and Dan Lanning said Oct. 26 he does not expect him back this season. Dylan Raiola, who has started since the injury, is expected to keep starting. (ESPN, AP) | +1.0 points |
| Ohio State | QB Julian Sayin | Starting quarterback Julian Sayin hurt his throwing arm in the Oct. 17 Indiana game and has not played since; Ryan Day has called him out indefinitely and said his return is not weeks away. Luke Fahey has started the losses at USC and Oregon and is expected to keep starting. (ESPN, Eleven Warriors, Yahoo Sports, ESPN (2)) | −2.3 points |
| Indiana | QB Josh Hoover | Curt Cignetti started Grant Wilson over Josh Hoover, who he said was healthy and available, against USC, and Wilson threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Cignetti has not named a starter for Washington. (ESPN, USC Athletics (AP recap)) | −2.4 points |
| San Diego State | QB Jayden Denegal | Sean Lewis named Stone Saunders the starter over Jayden Denegal in late October, and Saunders started the win over Utah State. He is expected to start at Boise State. (SDSU On SI via Yahoo Sports, East Village Times) | +0.3 points |
| Iowa | RB Kamari Moulton | Running back Kamari Moulton is out for the season with an upper-body injury, Kirk Ferentz said. (Hawk Central) | Not priced |
| Pittsburgh | QB Mason Heintschel | Starting quarterback Mason Heintschel tore the ACL in his right knee against Virginia Tech on Oct. 2 and is reported to be out for the season. Backup Holden Geriner missed the Florida State game with a hip injury, and true freshman Corey Dailey made his second start; Pitt has not named a starter for Louisville. (Field Level Media (citing ESPN), AP via Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated) | −1.4 points |
| Kansas State | QB Avery Johnson | Starting quarterback Avery Johnson has missed four straight games with an undisclosed injury, and Collin Klein called his return this season an outside chance. Dillon Duff started at TCU after Blake Barnett started the week before, and Klein has not named a starter for Arizona. (ESPN, K-State Athletics, Wichita Eagle via Yahoo Sports) | −1.2 points |
Last week's report card
I picked 47 of 67 winners in week 11 (70%). Vegas favorites went 45 of 67. Best call: I took Wake Forest (70%) when Vegas favored the other side, and Wake Forest won by 42. Worst miss: I gave New Mexico a 90% chance, and UNLV won by 4. Every result is in the track record.
How this is made
Each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, recruiting, roster talent and coaching changes), and every game moves it toward what actually happened: the final margin (blowouts count with diminishing returns) and play-by-play efficiency (EPA per play and success rate), with opponent strength built in and recent games counting a little more. The preseason rating fades out by week 10, so from then on the rankings come only from this season's games. Tested on 2018 through 2025 (2020 skipped) without peeking ahead, from week 4 on it missed final margins by 12.5 points on average and picked 73.0% of winners; the Vegas closing line missed by 12.1 and picked 72.8%. That rating makes the picks and the odds.
The ranking: the order weighs what a team has earned (60%: wins above what a playoff-caliber team would get against the same schedule) and how good it is (40%: the power rating). On 2022 through 2025, that order matched the playoff committee's rankings twice as closely as the power rating alone (an average miss of 3.0 spots instead of 6.6), and the higher-ranked team won 69% of next week's games between top-40 teams, against 67% for the power rating alone. When two teams are within 2 points and the lower one won their game, it moves ahead, the way the committee uses head-to-head.
Injuries: a confirmed starting quarterback absence moves a team's rating by half the gap between the starter and his replacement, the share that best predicted results when starters missed games in 2024 and 2025. Other injuries are listed but not priced.
Disagreeing with Vegas: when my numbers and the line have differed by 6 or more points, the line has been closer to the final margin 60% of the time (780 games). When we pick different winners, I've been right 51% of the time, about a coin flip.
Playoff odds: each of 10,000 simulations plays out the season, then picks the field roughly the way the committee does: rating, minus about 5 points per loss, plus schedule strength and a bump for conference champions. Nobody can model the committee exactly, so treat the odds for teams with tough schedules as rough.
Every number here is computed from play-by-play and box scores (via CollegeFootballData.com) and checked before it's used. I built the model and the automation with Claude as a pair programmer, and Claude helps draft the weekly write-up from the numbers; the calls and opinions are mine. Next week's edition grades these picks, misses included.