San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State is No. 101 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-4, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.1-6.9, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #101in the model (▼13 from last week)
- 4.1-6.9projected final record
- −7.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: San Diego State's best unit is its run defense (No. 33 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 126). Overall, the offense ranks No. 124 and the defense No. 68, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 105, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against San Diego State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 101) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, San Diego State would usually have won 1.5 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Pac-12, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 10% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 22.8points per game
- 35points allowed per game
- 32%offensive success rate
- 48%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jayden Denegal, 784 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: Javion Kinnard, 355 yards on 67 carries, 1 TD
- Receiving: Nathan Acevedo, 16 catches, 177 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Portland State | W 53-20 | 97% win |
| 2 | at No. 10 UCLA | L 10-28 | <1% win |
| 3 | vs No. 25 James Madison | L 13-26 | 1% win |
| 4 | at Toledo | L 16-41 | 0% win |
| 5 | vs Texas State | W 31-29 | 54% win |
| 6 | at Oregon State | L 14-66 | 1% win |
| 7 | vs Fresno State | 35% to win | |
| 8 | at Colorado State | 45% to win | |
| 9 | vs Washington State | 61% to win | |
| 11 | vs Utah State | 62% to win | |
| 12 | at No. 23 Boise State | 11% to win |
Pac-12 in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Boise State | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.0-2.0 |
| 34 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 7.5-3.5 |
| 57 | Fresno State | 4-2 | 1-1 | 7.1-3.9 |
| 66 | Texas State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.5-5.5 |
| 101 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.1-6.9 |
| 104 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3.9-7.1 |
| 109 | Washington State | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2.5-8.5 |
| 113 | Utah State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3.5-7.5 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.