Temple Owls 2026: Power Ranking, Playoff Odds & Schedule

2026 at a glance

#100in the model (▼17 from last week)
5.1-6.9projected final record
−6.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Temple's best unit is its rush offense (No. 43 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 118). Overall, the offense ranks No. 62 and the defense No. 119, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 122, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Temple's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 100) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Temple would usually have won 2.9 games; it has won 2.

Postseason odds: 1% to win the American Athletic, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 35% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 96 → Wk 2: 102 → Wk 3: 92 → Wk 4: 94 → Wk 5: 83 → Wk 6: 100

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

24.8points per game
26.3points allowed per game
43%offensive success rate
46%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Ajani Sheppard, 891 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT
Rushing: Keveun Mason, 449 yards on 81 carries, 2 TD
Receiving: Colin Chase, 12 catches, 234 yards, 2 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	vs Rhode Island	W 38-14	>99% win
2	vs Penn State	L 9-27	3% win
3	at Toledo	L 48-49	45% win
4	vs Army	L 17-21	52% win
5	at South Florida	W 17-13	78% win
6	vs UConn	L 20-34	15% win
7	vs Charlotte	88% to win
9	at East Carolina	30% to win
10	at Navy	41% to win
11	vs UAB	69% to win
12	vs Rice	60% to win
13	at Memphis	18% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

American Athletic in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
40	Memphis	5-1	2-0	9.2-2.8
51	North Texas	4-2	2-0	8.1-3.9
55	UTSA	5-1	2-0	8.9-3.1
60	South Florida	4-2	1-2	7.9-4.1
67	East Carolina	3-2	1-0	6.5-5.5
74	Florida Atlantic	4-1	1-0	7.3-4.7
86	Army	3-2	2-1	6.3-5.7
92	Tulsa	3-3	0-2	6.2-5.8
93	Tulane	2-3	0-1	5.3-6.7
96	Navy	2-3	1-2	4.8-7.2
100	Temple	2-4	1-1	5.1-6.9
102	Rice	1-5	0-2	3.4-8.6
124	UAB	3-3	1-1	5.7-6.3
137	Charlotte	0-6	0-2	0.9-11.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.