Florida Atlantic Owls: Playoff Odds & Schedule 2026

2026 at a glance

#74in the model (▲11 from last week)
7.3-4.7projected final record
−2.0points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
<1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Florida Atlantic's best unit is its rush offense (No. 67 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 120). Overall, the offense ranks No. 78 and the defense No. 122, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 41, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Florida Atlantic's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 74) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Florida Atlantic would usually have won 3.8 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 4% to win the American Athletic, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 90% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 122 → Wk 2: 114 → Wk 3: 102 → Wk 4: 93 → Wk 5: 85 → Wk 6: 74

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

37.2points per game
26.6points allowed per game
46%offensive success rate
39%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Caden Veltkamp, 1,425 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Ethan Ervin, 315 yards on 71 carries, 2 TD
Receiving: Kelby Valsin, 40 catches, 512 yards, 5 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	at Florida	L 21-66	1% win
2	vs Navy	W 38-30	99% win
3	vs Florida International	W 16-10	93% win
4	at UL Monroe	W 45-17	92% win
5	vs Texas Southern	W 66-10	93% win
7	at Army	47% to win
8	vs Rice	69% to win
9	at North Texas	31% to win
10	vs UTSA	46% to win
11	at Tulsa	49% to win
12	vs South Florida	48% to win
13	at East Carolina	40% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

American Athletic in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
40	Memphis	5-1	2-0	9.2-2.8
51	North Texas	4-2	2-0	8.1-3.9
55	UTSA	5-1	2-0	8.9-3.1
60	South Florida	4-2	1-2	7.9-4.1
67	East Carolina	3-2	1-0	6.5-5.5
74	Florida Atlantic	4-1	1-0	7.3-4.7
86	Army	3-2	2-1	6.3-5.7
92	Tulsa	3-3	0-2	6.2-5.8
93	Tulane	2-3	0-1	5.3-6.7
96	Navy	2-3	1-2	4.8-7.2
100	Temple	2-4	1-1	5.1-6.9
102	Rice	1-5	0-2	3.4-8.6
124	UAB	3-3	1-1	5.7-6.3
137	Charlotte	0-6	0-2	0.9-11.1

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.