Marshall Thundering Herd

Marshall is No. 129 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 0-2 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.1-6.9, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Marshall about 6 points lower than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 106, model: No. 129). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Marshall in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #129in the model (▼6 from last week)
  • 5.1-6.9projected final record
  • −13.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Marshall's best unit is its pass offense (No. 49 in FBS); its weakest is its pass defense (No. 138). Overall, the offense ranks No. 56 and the defense No. 138, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 98, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Marshall's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 129) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Marshall would usually have won 1.8 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 0% to win the Sun Belt, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 36% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 109 → Wk 2: 111 → Wk 3: 103 → Wk 4: 119 → Wk 5: 123 → Wk 6: 129
Week 1: No. 109Week 2: No. 111Week 3: No. 103Week 4: No. 119Week 5: No. 123Week 6: No. 129

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 22points per game
  • 33.7points allowed per game
  • 45%offensive success rate
  • 45%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, 1,014 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT
  • Rushing: Joshon Barbie, 230 yards on 49 carries, 2 TD
  • Receiving: Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw, 22 catches, 324 yards, 4 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at Penn StateL 0-451% win
2vs Middle TennesseeW 28-2675% win
3at Missouri StateW 30-2445% win
4vs Gardner-WebbW 36-3526% win
5at No. 25 James MadisonL 17-450% win
6vs Coastal CarolinaL 21-2733% win
8vs South Alabama35% to win
9at Old Dominion33% to win
10at Georgia Southern19% to win
11vs App State41% to win
12vs Georgia State21% to win
13at UL Monroe61% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Sun Belt in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
25James Madison6-03-010.9-1.1
58Georgia State4-11-08.5-3.5
73Louisiana4-21-17.9-4.1
78Georgia Southern2-41-15.9-6.1
87Louisiana Tech3-21-07.3-4.7
94Troy3-21-06.4-5.6
97South Alabama4-22-07.4-4.6
103App State3-20-16.1-5.9
106Arkansas State2-40-25.0-7.0
107Coastal Carolina2-41-14.3-7.7
114Old Dominion2-41-24.3-7.7
128Southern Miss1-40-13.4-8.6
136UL Monroe0-50-11.6-10.4

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.