Arkansas State Red Wolves: Playoff Odds & Schedule 2026

2026 at a glance

#106in the model (▼6 from last week)
5.0-7.0projected final record
−7.9points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Arkansas State's best unit is its rush offense (No. 47 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 126). Overall, the offense ranks No. 72 and the defense No. 123, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 120, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Arkansas State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 106) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Arkansas State would usually have won 2.5 games; it has won 2.

Postseason odds: <1% to win the Sun Belt, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 35% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 78 → Wk 2: 90 → Wk 3: 111 → Wk 4: 110 → Wk 5: 100 → Wk 6: 106

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

28.2points per game
28.8points allowed per game
49%offensive success rate
47%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Trey Owens, 1,461 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Solomon Baggett, 239 yards on 46 carries, 2 TD
Receiving: Hunter Summers, 29 catches, 408 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	at Memphis	L 24-42	1% win
2	vs West Georgia	W 52-7	>99% win
3	at TCU	L 7-31	0% win
4	vs Kennesaw State	W 17-14	98% win
5	at Louisiana	L 20-23	13% win
6	vs South Alabama	L 49-56	36% win
7	at Southern Miss	57% to win
8	vs Georgia State	34% to win
10	vs UL Monroe	83% to win
11	at Coastal Carolina	45% to win
12	at Louisiana Tech	33% to win
13	vs Troy	49% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Sun Belt in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
25	James Madison	6-0	3-0	10.9-1.1
58	Georgia State	4-1	1-0	8.5-3.5
73	Louisiana	4-2	1-1	7.9-4.1
78	Georgia Southern	2-4	1-1	5.9-6.1
87	Louisiana Tech	3-2	1-0	7.3-4.7
94	Troy	3-2	1-0	6.4-5.6
97	South Alabama	4-2	2-0	7.4-4.6
103	App State	3-2	0-1	6.1-5.9
106	Arkansas State	2-4	0-2	5.0-7.0
107	Coastal Carolina	2-4	1-1	4.3-7.7
114	Old Dominion	2-4	1-2	4.3-7.7
128	Southern Miss	1-4	0-1	3.4-8.6
129	Marshall	3-3	0-2	5.1-6.9
136	UL Monroe	0-5	0-1	1.6-10.4

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.