College Football Power Rankings · Sun Belt

Georgia State Panthers

Georgia State is No. 58 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-1, 1-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.5-3.5, with a 5% chance to win out and a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Vegas disagrees: the model rates Georgia State about 8 points higher than the betting market does (Vegas rank: No. 102, model: No. 58). When the model and the line have been 6+ points apart, the line has been closer 62% of the time.

Updated · See Georgia State in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #58in the model (▲12 from last week)
  • 8.5-3.5projected final record
  • +1.5points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 1%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Georgia State's best unit is its pass offense (No. 10 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 127). Overall, the offense ranks No. 25 and the defense No. 71, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 45, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Georgia State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 58) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Georgia State would usually have won 4 games; it has won 4.

Postseason odds: 14% to win the Sun Belt, 1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 98% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 103 → Wk 2: 70 → Wk 3: 89 → Wk 4: 91 → Wk 5: 70 → Wk 6: 58
Week 1: No. 103Week 2: No. 70Week 3: No. 89Week 4: No. 91Week 5: No. 70Week 6: No. 58

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 39.4points per game
  • 19points allowed per game
  • 48%offensive success rate
  • 36%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Cameran Brown, 1,157 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing: Lanear McCrary Jr., 361 yards on 69 carries, 3 TD
  • Receiving: Rodshaun Dorsey, 18 catches, 276 yards, 6 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1vs North Carolina A&TW 59-1099% win
2at Kennesaw StateW 31-17100% win
3at UCFL 30-442% win
4vs Northern IllinoisW 35-14100% win
5vs Old DominionW 42-10>99% win
7at No. 25 James Madison26% to win
8at Arkansas State66% to win
9vs Coastal Carolina79% to win
10at App State66% to win
11vs Georgia Southern66% to win
12at Marshall79% to win
13vs Louisiana65% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Sun Belt in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
25James Madison6-03-010.9-1.1
58Georgia State4-11-08.5-3.5
73Louisiana4-21-17.9-4.1
78Georgia Southern2-41-15.9-6.1
87Louisiana Tech3-21-07.3-4.7
94Troy3-21-06.4-5.6
97South Alabama4-22-07.4-4.6
103App State3-20-16.1-5.9
106Arkansas State2-40-25.0-7.0
107Coastal Carolina2-41-14.3-7.7
114Old Dominion2-41-24.3-7.7
128Southern Miss1-40-13.4-8.6
129Marshall3-30-25.1-6.9
136UL Monroe0-50-11.6-10.4

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.