Troy Trojans 2026: Power Ranking, Playoff Odds & Schedule

2026 at a glance

#94in the model (▲2 from last week)
6.4-5.6projected final record
−4.7points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Troy's best unit is its rush offense (No. 42 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 90). Overall, the offense ranks No. 67 and the defense No. 94, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 5 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 74, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Troy's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 94) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Troy would usually have won 3 games; it has won 3.

Postseason odds: 2% to win the Sun Belt, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 75% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 104 → Wk 2: 107 → Wk 3: 88 → Wk 4: 101 → Wk 5: 96 → Wk 6: 94

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

28points per game
24points allowed per game
43%offensive success rate
40%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

Passing: Will Crowder, 1,047 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Gavin Griffin, 337 yards on 69 carries, 1 TD
Receiving: TK Keyes, 12 catches, 270 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

Week	Opponent	Result or win chance	Played like
1	vs Sam Houston	W 24-21	100% win
2	vs Alabama State	W 34-17	100% win
3	at No. 12 Missouri	L 17-27	0% win
4	at Utah State	L 10-21	1% win
6	vs Southern Miss	W 55-34	96% win
7	at Louisiana	37% to win
8	vs UL Monroe	88% to win
9	at No. 25 James Madison	15% to win
10	vs Louisiana Tech	54% to win
11	at South Alabama	44% to win
12	vs Georgia Southern	51% to win
13	at Arkansas State	51% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Sun Belt in the model

#	Team	Record	Conf.	Projected
25	James Madison	6-0	3-0	10.9-1.1
58	Georgia State	4-1	1-0	8.5-3.5
73	Louisiana	4-2	1-1	7.9-4.1
78	Georgia Southern	2-4	1-1	5.9-6.1
87	Louisiana Tech	3-2	1-0	7.3-4.7
94	Troy	3-2	1-0	6.4-5.6
97	South Alabama	4-2	2-0	7.4-4.6
103	App State	3-2	0-1	6.1-5.9
106	Arkansas State	2-4	0-2	5.0-7.0
107	Coastal Carolina	2-4	1-1	4.3-7.7
114	Old Dominion	2-4	1-2	4.3-7.7
128	Southern Miss	1-4	0-1	3.4-8.6
129	Marshall	3-3	0-2	5.1-6.9
136	UL Monroe	0-5	0-1	1.6-10.4

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.