Sam Houston Bearkats

Sam Houston is No. 123 of 138 in the model after week 6 (1-4, 0-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 3.6-8.4, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Updated · See Sam Houston in the full rankings

2026 at a glance

  • #123in the model (▼3 from last week)
  • 3.6-8.4projected final record
  • −11.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
  • 0%chance to make the playoff

Scouting report: Sam Houston's best unit is its pass defense (No. 16 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 124). Overall, the offense ranks No. 85 and the defense No. 66, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.

Résumé: No. 119, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Sam Houston's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 123) measures how good the team is.

Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Sam Houston would usually have won 1.6 games; it has won 1.

Postseason odds: <1% to win the Conference USA, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 7% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)

Rank by week: Wk 1: 120 → Wk 2: 126 → Wk 3: 109 → Wk 4: 120 → Wk 5: 120 → Wk 6: 123
Week 1: No. 120Week 2: No. 126Week 3: No. 109Week 4: No. 120Week 5: No. 120Week 6: No. 123

Rankings for weeks 1-6 were rebuilt after launch from games through each week; later weeks are published live.

Season stats

  • 19.5points per game
  • 24.5points allowed per game
  • 39%offensive success rate
  • 40%success rate allowed

Success rate: share of plays that keep an offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of it on third or fourth). Garbage time excluded.

Leaders

  • Passing: Landyn Locke, 1,418 yards, 11 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing: Alton McCaskill, 211 yards on 53 carries, 1 TD
  • Receiving: Chris Reed, 17 catches, 289 yards, 3 TD

Schedule and win odds

WeekOpponentResult or win chancePlayed like
1at TroyL 21-240% win
2vs TulsaL 17-2364% win
3vs NichollsW 59-099% win
4at No. 11 Texas TechL 14-49<1% win
6at LibertyL 3-351% win
7vs Western KentuckyL 3-1615% win
8vs New Mexico State55% to win
9at Missouri State47% to win
10at Jacksonville State29% to win
11vs Kennesaw State49% to win
12vs Middle Tennessee56% to win
13at Florida International25% to win

Win chances come from the model's current ratings, including home field. Played like: how often a team wins a game it played the way it played this one, based on the box score. Rankings shown are the model's.

Conference USA in the model

#TeamRecordConf.Projected
49Liberty5-12-09.7-2.3
80Florida International3-21-06.7-5.3
95Jacksonville State4-22-08.2-3.8
105Kennesaw State1-40-13.9-8.1
117New Mexico State2-41-14.6-7.4
118Western Kentucky2-41-15.1-6.9
120Delaware2-30-14.6-7.4
121Middle Tennessee2-30-15.4-6.6
127Missouri State1-40-14.1-7.9

This week's picks and rankings

Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.

How the model works: each team starts from a preseason rating (last season, returning production, roster talent), and every game moves it using the final margin and play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponents. Projections simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. More on the method. Data from CollegeFootballData.com.