New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State is No. 117 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-4, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.6-7.4, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #117in the model (▲2 from last week)
- 4.6-7.4projected final record
- −10.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: New Mexico State's best unit is its pass defense (No. 89 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 131). Overall, the offense ranks No. 132 and the defense No. 104, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 124, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against New Mexico State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 117) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, New Mexico State would usually have won 2 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 2% to win the Conference USA, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 25% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 23.7points per game
- 25.7points allowed per game
- 39%offensive success rate
- 40%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Trey Hedden, 906 yards, 5 TD, 6 INT
- Rushing: James Jones, 599 yards on 92 carries, 3 TD
- Receiving: Tyler King, 20 catches, 286 yards, 3 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Florida State | L 17-34 | 0% win |
| 1 | vs Mercyhurst | W 51-14 | 99% win |
| 2 | at Hawai'i | L 19-29 | 6% win |
| 4 | vs New Mexico | L 18-42 | 1% win |
| 5 | vs Western Kentucky | W 34-13 | >99% win |
| 6 | at Florida International | L 3-22 | 0% win |
| 8 | at Sam Houston | 45% to win | |
| 9 | vs Jacksonville State | 43% to win | |
| 10 | vs Liberty | 24% to win | |
| 11 | at Missouri State | 49% to win | |
| 12 | vs Delaware | 57% to win | |
| 13 | at Middle Tennessee | 45% to win |
Conference USA in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Liberty | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.7-2.3 |
| 80 | Florida International | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 95 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.9-8.1 |
| 117 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 118 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 120 | Delaware | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 123 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.6-8.4 |
| 127 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.