Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky is No. 118 of 138 in the model after week 6 (2-4, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.1-6.9, with a 1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #118in the model (▲10 from last week)
- 5.1-6.9projected final record
- −10.4points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Western Kentucky's best unit is its pass defense (No. 75 in FBS); its weakest is its run defense (No. 135). Overall, the offense ranks No. 119 and the defense No. 116, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 7 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 109, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Western Kentucky's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 118) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Western Kentucky would usually have won 2.1 games; it has won 2.
Postseason odds: 2% to win the Conference USA, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 37% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 21.3points per game
- 30.6points allowed per game
- 36%offensive success rate
- 39%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Rodney Tisdale Jr., 862 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing: Ajay Allen, 332 yards on 82 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Jonathan Stafford Jr., 41 catches, 375 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Nevada | L 14-49 | 1% win |
| 2 | at No. 3 Georgia | L 20-70 | 5% win |
| 3 | at No. 6 Indiana | L 0-38 | 1% win |
| 4 | vs Mercyhurst | W 52-7 | 99% win |
| 5 | at New Mexico State | L 13-34 | <1% win |
| 6 | vs Missouri State | W 34-13 | 99% win |
| 7 | at Sam Houston | W 16-3 | 85% win |
| 9 | vs Delaware | 57% to win | |
| 10 | at Middle Tennessee | 45% to win | |
| 11 | vs Jacksonville State | 43% to win | |
| 12 | at Liberty | 15% to win | |
| 13 | vs Kennesaw State | 50% to win |
Conference USA in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Liberty | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.7-2.3 |
| 80 | Florida International | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 95 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.9-8.1 |
| 117 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 118 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 120 | Delaware | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 123 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.6-8.4 |
| 127 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.