Missouri State Bears
Missouri State is No. 127 of 138 in the model after week 6 (1-4, 0-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 4.1-7.9, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #127in the model (▼17 from last week)
- 4.1-7.9projected final record
- −12.6points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: Missouri State's best unit is its pass defense (No. 101 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 119). Overall, the offense ranks No. 130 and the defense No. 114, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 127, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against Missouri State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 127) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, Missouri State would usually have won 1.6 games; it has won 1.
Postseason odds: <1% to win the Conference USA, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 13% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 22.2points per game
- 30.5points allowed per game
- 40%offensive success rate
- 48%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Skyler Locklear, 788 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing: Jambres Dubar, 233 yards on 42 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Isaiah Myers, 27 catches, 554 yards, 5 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Texas A&M | L 0-50 | 1% win |
| 2 | vs Lindenwood | W 48-14 | 100% win |
| 3 | vs Marshall | L 24-30 | 55% win |
| 4 | at SMU | L 24-34 | 2% win |
| 6 | at Western Kentucky | L 13-34 | 1% win |
| 7 | vs Kennesaw State | W 24-21 | 73% win |
| 8 | at Delaware | 38% to win | |
| 9 | vs Sam Houston | 53% to win | |
| 10 | at Florida International | 22% to win | |
| 11 | vs New Mexico State | 51% to win | |
| 12 | at Jacksonville State | 26% to win | |
| 13 | vs Liberty | 20% to win |
Conference USA in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Liberty | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9.7-2.3 |
| 80 | Florida International | 3-2 | 1-0 | 6.7-5.3 |
| 95 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.2-3.8 |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.9-8.1 |
| 117 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 118 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5.1-6.9 |
| 120 | Delaware | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4.6-7.4 |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5.4-6.6 |
| 123 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3.6-8.4 |
| 127 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4.1-7.9 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.