North Dakota State Bison
North Dakota State is No. 63 of 138 in the model after week 6 (5-1, 2-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 9.4-2.6, with a 11% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #63in the model (▲32 from last week)
- 9.4-2.6projected final record
- +0.8points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: North Dakota State's best unit is its run defense (No. 10 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 109). Overall, the offense ranks No. 97 and the defense No. 15, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 43, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against North Dakota State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 63) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, North Dakota State would usually have won 4.3 games; it has won 5.
Postseason odds: 19% to win the Mountain West, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. >99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 29.2points per game
- 10.3points allowed per game
- 42%offensive success rate
- 38%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Nathan Hayes, 1,119 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: DJ Scott, 306 yards on 73 carries, 4 TD
- Receiving: Jackson Williams, 23 catches, 374 yards, 1 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Jacksonville State | W 33-7 | 91% win |
| 1 | vs Fordham | W 38-0 | 99% win |
| 2 | at Air Force | W 38-32 | 25% win |
| 3 | at Sacramento State | W 31-10 | 88% win |
| 5 | vs Wyoming | W 28-0 | 99% win |
| 6 | at UNLV | L 7-13 | 30% win |
| 7 | vs Nevada | 78% to win | |
| 8 | at New Mexico | 26% to win | |
| 9 | vs UTEP | 90% to win | |
| 11 | at Hawai'i | 79% to win | |
| 12 | vs Northern Illinois | 93% to win | |
| 13 | at San José State | 70% to win |
Mountain West in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 1-0 | 9.8-2.2 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.4-2.6 |
| 64 | UNLV | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 83 | Air Force | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 111 | Nevada | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 116 | San José State | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.9-7.1 |
| 130 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 133 | UTEP | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.1-8.9 |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.9-10.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.