UNLV Rebels
UNLV is No. 64 of 138 in the model after week 6 (4-2, 2-0 in conference play). Its projected final record is 8.0-4.0, with a 7% chance to win out and a <1% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #64in the model (▲4 from last week)
- 8.0-4.0projected final record
- +0.3points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- <1%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: UNLV's best unit is its pass defense (No. 29 in FBS); its weakest is its pass offense (No. 98). Overall, the offense ranks No. 107 and the defense No. 40, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 56, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against UNLV's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 64) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, UNLV would usually have won 3.7 games; it has won 4.
Postseason odds: 19% to win the Mountain West, <1% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 99% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 23points per game
- 20.8points allowed per game
- 37%offensive success rate
- 39%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Jackson Arnold, 1,145 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: Jai'Den Thomas, 495 yards on 95 carries, 2 TD
- Receiving: Tastean Reddicks, 15 catches, 280 yards, 2 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Memphis | L 21-27 | 5% win |
| 1 | at Hawai'i | W 21-6 | 96% win |
| 2 | at North Texas | L 6-44 | 1% win |
| 4 | at Akron | W 38-10 | 98% win |
| 5 | vs California | W 39-31 | 95% win |
| 6 | vs North Dakota State | W 13-7 | 70% win |
| 7 | at Air Force | 52% to win | |
| 9 | vs Northern Illinois | 93% to win | |
| 10 | vs Wyoming | 86% to win | |
| 11 | at New Mexico | 25% to win | |
| 12 | at San José State | 69% to win | |
| 13 | vs Nevada | 77% to win |
Mountain West in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 1-0 | 9.8-2.2 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.4-2.6 |
| 64 | UNLV | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 83 | Air Force | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 111 | Nevada | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 116 | San José State | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.9-7.1 |
| 130 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 133 | UTEP | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.1-8.9 |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.9-10.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.