San José State Spartans
San José State is No. 116 of 138 in the model after week 6 (3-3, 1-1 in conference play). Its projected final record is 5.9-7.1, with a <1% chance to win out and a 0% chance to make the playoff.
2026 at a glance
- #116in the model (▼8 from last week)
- 5.9-7.1projected final record
- −10.1points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field
- 0%chance to make the playoff
Scouting report: San José State's best unit is its pass defense (No. 41 in FBS); its weakest is its rush offense (No. 135). Overall, the offense ranks No. 120 and the defense No. 78, adjusted for opponents. These ranks rest on 6 games, so expect them to move week to week.
Résumé: No. 107, by wins above what a typical top-25 team would expect against San José State's schedule. That measures what the record is worth; the power rank (No. 116) measures how good the team is.
Deserved wins: playing the way it has, San José State would usually have won 3.1 games; it has won 3.
Postseason odds: 1% to win the Mountain West, 0% to make the 12-team playoff, 0% to earn a first-round bye and 0% to win the national title. 59% to reach 6 wins. (Model estimates; how the playoff odds work.)
Season stats
- 21points per game
- 23.5points allowed per game
- 39%offensive success rate
- 43%success rate allowed
Leaders
- Passing: Luke Weaver, 1,529 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT
- Rushing: Jabari Bates, 556 yards on 120 carries, 1 TD
- Receiving: Carson Clark, 37 catches, 405 yards, 4 TD
Schedule and win odds
| Week | Opponent | Result or win chance | Played like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at No. 24 USC | L 26-42 | <1% win |
| 1 | at Eastern Michigan | W 27-21 | 100% win |
| 2 | vs Cal Poly | W 30-20 | 97% win |
| 3 | vs Fresno State | L 10-26 | 0% win |
| 5 | at Hawai'i | W 20-16 | 97% win |
| 6 | vs Wyoming | L 13-16 | 18% win |
| 7 | at UTEP | 61% to win | |
| 8 | at Nevada | 41% to win | |
| 9 | vs New Mexico | 16% to win | |
| 10 | vs Northern Illinois | 79% to win | |
| 11 | at Air Force | 27% to win | |
| 12 | vs UNLV | 31% to win | |
| 13 | vs North Dakota State | 30% to win |
Mountain West in the model
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 1-0 | 9.8-2.2 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 2-1 | 9.4-2.6 |
| 64 | UNLV | 4-2 | 2-0 | 8.0-4.0 |
| 83 | Air Force | 4-1 | 2-1 | 7.9-4.1 |
| 111 | Nevada | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4.7-7.3 |
| 116 | San José State | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5.9-7.1 |
| 130 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 2-1 | 5.0-7.0 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3.4-8.6 |
| 133 | UTEP | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3.1-8.9 |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1.9-10.1 |
This week's picks and rankings
Every week's top 25, game of the week and picks are in the weekly breakdown. Latest: Week 7 college football picks and power rankings: the model's case for LSU.